THE IMPACT OF THE EU-US OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT ON INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL AND CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS

We use a model of domestic and international tourist numbers and flows to estimate the impact of the EU-US Open Skies agreement that is to take effect in March 2008. The Open Aviation Area will result in increased competition between transatlantic carriers and consequently falls in the cost of flights, therefore we look at the change in visitor numbers from the US into the EU and corresponding CO2 emissions. We find that passenger numbers arriving from the US to the EU will increase by approximately 1% and 14% depending on the magnitude of the price reductions. This increase in passenger numbers does not however result in a corresponding rise in emissions as arrivals into other countries from the US fall by a comparable amount. The number of tourist arrivals from the US to countries outside of the EU will fall and overall emissions would then increase by a maximum of 0.7%. If we assume that domestic holidays and foreign holidays are close substitutes these effects are strengthened and US passengers switch from domestic trips to foreign destinations as airfares converge.International tourism, open skies agreement, carbon dioxide emissions

A Hedonic Analysis of the Value of Parks and Green Spaces in the Dublin Area [on housing market]. ESRI WP331. November 2009

We use a hedonic house price model to estimate the value of green spaces and parks to homeowners in the Dublin area. Using a dataset of house sales between 2001 and 2006 and combining it with available data on the location of green spaces in Dublin it is possible to assess the different values assigned to green areas by homeowners. We find that the value of green space depends first of all on how far from the property it is located. We also find a difference in the values assigned to open access parks and green spaces. For every 10% increase in the share of green space and park area near a house, its average price increases by 7% to 9%. We also attempted to identify different individual parks and rank them according to their value, however due to spatial multicollinearity the results were mixed

Yuppie Kvetch? Work-life Conflict and Social Class in Western Europe. ESRI WP240. May 2008

We examine the impacts of the EU-US Open Skies agreement on the environment, in particular looking at the effect of the agreement on emissions from the aviation sector. We use the Hamburg Tourism Model, a model of domestic and international tourist numbers and flows, to estimate these impacts. The Open Aviation Area will result in increased competition between carriers and consequently falls in the cost of transatlantic flights. This will not only have implications for the size and structure of the industry but also for climate policy. The objectives of this paper are (1) to assess what effects the expected increases in passenger numbers will have on CO2 emissions and (2) to test whether this increase in travel will result in a corresponding rise in emissions. Model simulations show that passenger numbers arriving from the US to the EU will increase by between 1% and 14% depending on the magnitude of the price reductions. We find that because of substitution between destinations, the percentage increase in global emissions is much smaller (max. 1%) than the increase in cross-Atlantic traffic. In the current context of greenhouse gas control policies, any increase in emissions will make climate policy objectives more difficult to achieve and will attract more attention to aviation’s contribution to climate change

European Climate Policy and Aviation Emissions. ESRI WP241. May 2008

We use a model of international and domestic tourist numbers and flows to investigate the effect of various climate policy instruments implemented in Europe on arrivals and emissions for the countries concerned. We find that these schemes do not fulfil their desired effects. The introduction of aviation into the European Trading system results in a fall in the number of tourists travelling into the EU in favour of other destinations. It also causes a significant welfare loss with only a small reduction in emissions. The flight taxes in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom result in different substitution effects across destinations (depending on the zones being taxed) but both policies do have the same consequence of inducing welfare losses and also reducing visitor numbers to the countries. We find that when these policies are combined their effects are additive. Welfare impacts are robust to variations in the underlying assumptions and changes in the scope of the taxes examined have the expected effects

Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation. ESRI WP244. May 2008

We use a model of international and domestic tourist numbers and flows to forecast tourist numbers and emissions from international tourism out to 2100. We find that between 2005 and 2100 international tourism grows by a factor of 12. Not only do people take more trips but these also increase in length. We find that the growth in tourism is mainly fuelled by an increase in trips from Asian countries. Emissions follow this growth pattern until 2060 when emissions per passenger-kilometre start to fall due to improvements in fuel efficiency. Forecasted emissions are also presented for the four SRES scenarios and maintain the same growth pattern but the levels of emissions differ substantially. We find that the forecasts are sensitive to the period to which the model is calibrated, the assumed rate of improvement in fuel efficiency and the imposed climate policy scenario

Designing a property tax without property values: Analysis in the case of Ireland. ESRI WP352. September 2010

We examine the implications of using hedonic regressions of house values as the basis for property tax assessment in the Republic of Ireland. Ad valorem property taxes are more equitable than flat rate taxes, but their equity benefits can be reduced if the relative values of dwellings are inaccurately assessed. Achieving greater accuracy in assessment tends to increase administrative costs, so policymakers face a trade-off between cost and accuracy. Using the Irish National Survey of Housing Quality of 2002, this study analyses the contribution that information about selected property characteristics can make to determine the relative values of residential properties in Ireland. These characteristics are the location of the dwelling, house size in square meters, the number of rooms and bedrooms in the home, the age of the house and the type of dwelling. The values of residential properties are estimated using these variables in turn and the prediction errors are presented in terms of the absolute value error and the assessment ratio (the estimated value divided by the market value). We find that it is possible to assign approximately 80% of houses nationally within the correct tax valuation band using just one of five house characteristics. Households whose house price is under assessed tend to be those with the greatest means (highly skilled professionals and high income earners), so a tax assessment system based on this type of valuation would tend to make regressive errors (while a property tax itself is regressive too). Consequently, checks would need to be put in place in order to more accurately estimate very highly priced properties as well as introducing exemptions for lower value properties and low income groups. The system could also be used to identify likely misreporting if using a self-assessment system

Convergence of Consumption Patterns During Macroeconomic Transition: A Model of Demand In Ireland and the OECD. ESRI WP205. August 2007

This study uses country-level panel data on consumption in Ireland and seven other OECD countries to examine the evolution of Irish consumption patterns as Ireland underwent rapid macroeconomic growth. Consumption levels obviously increased due to substantially higher incomes, but it is less clear how the shares of different types of goods purchased have changed or whether Ireland's consumption mix has converged with that of other high-income countries. Rankings based on a simple distance measure of consumption similarity suggest that Ireland moved from a "low-income" pattern similar to Portugal or Greece to a "high-income" pattern like that of Canada between 1995 and 2003. Using static and dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System models, we first estimate long- and short-run Irish price and income elasticities for nine categories of commodities between 1976 and 2003. These results provide evidence of substantial habit formation in aggregate consumption. We then estimate a long-run cross-country model covering six aggregate commodity groups between 1975 and 2003. The analysis shows that Ireland’s demand parameters remain more similar to those of Greece than to higher-income OECD countries in the sample. Although Ireland has overtaken most other OECD countries in per capita income, it is still converging to a higher-income consumption pattern. We foresee further convergence of Irish expenditure patterns towards a pattern typical of high-income countries

Holiday Destinations: Understanding the Travel Choices of Irish Tourists. ESRI WP210. September 2007

This paper uses a McFadden choice model to measure the importance of destination, household and seasonal characteristics on the tourism destination choices of Irish households. The analysis is based on quarterly survey data of Irish households’ travel destinations between 2000 and 2006. In total, some 55 000 holiday trips were observed. Destination characteristics such as temperature, GDP and coastline are found to positively influence choice probabilities, while population density and distance have a negative effect on choice. Household specific characteristics such as the numbers of people over 60 and children in a household are found to be important. We also identify differences in preferences across seasons and a change over time of the effect of destination country GDP on Irish holiday destination choices

A Hedonic Analysis of the Value of Rail Transport in the Greater Dublin Area. ESRI WP264. November 2008

We use a hedonic house price model to estimate the value of transport networks to homeowners in the Dublin area. Using a dataset of house sales between 2001 and 2006 and combining it with available geographical information system data on the train and tram lines in Dublin, it is possible to assess the values assigned to different transport links by homeowners. We find that the value of transport depends on how far from the property it is located and is also affected by the availability of alternative transport options in the area. There are differences in the values assigned to recently constructed tramlines compared to the traditional rapid transit train stations. The study also takes into account house characteristics and other environmental amenities

Does the housing market reflect cultural heritage? A case study of Greater Dublin

Does the housing market reflect cultural heritage? We estimate several specifications of a hedonic price equation to establish whether distance to cultural heritage site is capitalised into housing prices in Greater Dublin, Ireland. The results show that distance to the nearest historic building has a significant and robust effect on housing prices. To our knowledge this is the first application of the hedonic price method to cultural heritage