Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Contextualising Apartheid at the End of Empire: Repression, ‘Development’ and the Bantustans

This article examines the global dynamics of late colonialism and how these informed South African apartheid. More specifically, it locates the programmes of mass relocation and bantustan ‘self-government’ that characterised apartheid after 1959 in relation to three key dimensions. Firstly, the article explores the global circulation of idioms of ‘development’ and trusteeship in the first half of the twentieth century and its significance in shaping segregationist policy; secondly, it situates bantustan ‘selfgovernment’ in relation to the history of decolonisation and the partitions and federations that emerged as late colonial solutions; and, thirdly, it locates the tightening of rural village planning in the bantustans after 1960 in relation to the elaboration of anti-colonial liberation struggles, repressive southern African settler politics and the Cold War. It argues that, far from developing policies that were at odds with the global ‘wind of change’, South African apartheid during the 1960s and 1970s reflected much that was characteristic about late colonial strategy

Measurement of the Neutrino Mass Splitting and Flavor Mixing by MINOS

Measurements of neutrino oscillations using the disappearance of muon neutrinos from the Fermilab NuMI neutrino beam as observed by the two MINOS detectors are reported. New analysis methods have been applied to an enlarged data sample from an exposure of 7.25 x 10(20) protons on target. A fit to neutrino oscillations yields values of vertical bar Delta m(2)vertical bar = (2.32(-0.08)(+0.12) x 10(-3) eV(2) for the atmospheric mass splitting and sin(2)(2 theta) &gt; 0.90 (90% C.L.) for the mixing angle. Pure neutrino decay and quantum decoherence hypotheses are excluded at 7 and 9 standard deviations, respectively

New constraints on muon-neutrino to electron-neutrino transitions in MINOS

This paper reports results from a search for nu(mu) -&gt; nu(e) transitions by the MINOS experiment based on a 7 x 10(20) protons-on-target exposure. Our observation of 54 candidate nu(e) events in the far detector with a background of 49.1 +/- 7.0(stat) +/- 2.7(syst) events predicted by the measurements in the near detector requires 2sin(2)(2 theta(13))sin(2)theta(23) &lt; 0.12(0.20) at the 90% C.L. for the normal (inverted) mass hierarchy at delta(CP) = 0. The experiment sets the tightest limits to date on the value of theta(13) for nearly all values of delta(CP) for the normal neutrino mass hierarchy and maximal sin(2)(2 theta(23))

Improved Measurement of Muon Antineutrino Disappearance in MINOS

We report an improved measurement of (nu) over bar (mu) disappearance over a distance of 735 km using the MINOS detectors and the Fermilab Main Injector neutrino beam in a (nu) over bar (mu)-enhanced configuration. From a total exposure of 2.95 x 10(20) protons on target, of which 42% have not been previously analyzed, we make the most precise measurement of Delta(m) over bar (2) = [2.62(-0.28)(+0.31)(stat) +/- 0.09(syst)] x 10(-3) eV(2) and constrain the (nu) over bar (mu) mixing angle sin(2)(2 (theta) over bar) &gt; 0.75 (90% C.L.). These values are in agreement with Delta m(2) and sin(2)(2 theta) measured for nu(mu), removing the tension reported in [P. Adamson et al. (MINOS), Phys. Rev. Lett. 107, 021801 (2011).]