A DECISION MODEL TO ASSESS CATTLE FEEDING PRICE RISK

Traditional break-even/fed cattle price projections do not provide adequate risk information to feeders, investors, lenders, and other stakeholders interested in cattle feeding decisions. The objectives of this study were two-fold: 1) develop a spreadsheet model that could estimate the net income distribution surrounding a cattle placement decision based on historical errors of futures based price forecasts, and 2) determine whether information generated from the model can be used to improve placement and marketing decisions. To accomplish objective 1, model was developed that could estimate the income distribution around a pen of cattle under a cash speculating and short hedge pricing strategy. Distribution estimates were based on 7 alternative forecast horizons and were derived from historical forecast errors. To accomplish objective 2, decision rules were developed that allow the feeder to specify the maximum probability he/she is willing to risk losing a specified level of income. These decision rules were compared to random and naive decision rules by simulating the outcomes over 168 discrete six months feeding periods between 1987 and 2000. Risk averse decision rules were successful in signaling highly unprofitable feeding periods, but also filtered out highly profitable feeding periods.Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,

ASSESSING THE COST OF BEEF QUALITY

The number of U.S. fed cattle marketed through a value based or grid marketing system is increasing dramatically. Most grids reward Choice or better quality grades and some pay premiums for red meat yield. The Choice-Select (C-S) price spread increased 55 percent, over $3/cwt between 1989-91 and 1999-01. However, there is a cost associated with pursuing these carcass premiums. This paper examines these tradeoffs both in the feedlot and in a retained ownership scenario. Correlations between carcass and performance traits resulted in economic tradeoffs that change across input costs and quality grade premiums and discounts. Feedlot profitability was largely determined by marbling, carcass weight, and feed efficiency. Carcass weight was most important at a low C-S spread. However, at average C-S spread and higher, marbling became the largest determinate of feedlot profits, and its importance increased with the C-S spread. Carcass weight and feed efficiency influence on feedlot profitability declined at higher C-S spreads. Rib-eye area was the fourth most important variable and declined in importance as marbling increased in importance. There is some indication that cows with lower feed costs also produce the most profitable calf for the feedlot, and vice-versa. The data suggests that cow size and marbling score are negatively correlated. The current trend toward wider C-S spreads and rewarding higher quality grading cattle places greater emphasis on marbling ability of calves. These correlations and results suggest that higher marbling is associated with lower cost cows to maintain.Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,

INFLUENCE OF LAND TENURE ARRANGEMENTS ON GRAZING MANAGEMENT INCENTIVES

Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries,

FACTORS INFLUENCING OPTIMAL STOCKING RATES FROM A TENANT PERSPECTIVE

The terms of grazing lease contracts potentially influence the tenants incentive to preserve the vegetation resource. Annual stocking rate decisions dictate the degree of overgrazing, which can be cumulative over long periods of time. The objective of this study is to identify the impact the tenants planning horizon and cost structure specified in the lease contract has on his/her profit-maximizing stocking rate. A multi-period nonlinear programming model was developed to identify economically optimal stocking rates each year over a 24-year period. The model was solved under 1-, 4-, 8-, and 12-year leases on a per acre and per head basis. The relative importance of each lease alternative and input variable on the tenants optimal stocking rate was ranked based on standardized ordinary least squares coefficient estimates between input values and optimal stocking rates. Planning horizon and cost structure had a minor impact on optimal stocking rates relative to non-lease factors such as livestock prices and production costs. Holding other factors constant, per acre leases generated a 2% higher average stocking rate than per head leases. Optimal stocking rates were inversely related to the length of the lease. Twelve-year lease agreements generated 18 and 13% lower optimal stocking rater than the 1-year per acre and per head lease agreements, respectively. The optimal stocking rate difference between an 8-year and a 12-year lease was negligible, suggesting the 8-year lease would provide a similar incentive to protect vegetation as a lease with a longer planning horizon.Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use,

PROFITABILITY OF ESTABLISHING BASIN WILDRYE FOR WINTER GRAZING

This study examined the economic viability of establishing basin wildrye for winter grazing. Mixed integer-programming models were developed that minimized cow feed costs. Estimated basin wildrye establishment costs were $154 per acre. Break-even basin wildrye yields were approximately 2.6 and 2.3 AUMs/acre for March and May calving scenarios, respectively.Livestock Production/Industries,

OPTIMAL FEED COST STRATEGIES ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY AND LATE CALVING SEASONS

Integer programming models were used to examine optimal monthly feeding strategies and costs for March and May calving alternatives. Body condition scores were allowed to fluctuate throughout the year except for calving and breeding periods. The May calving strategy decreased annual feeding costs by $20 per cow.Livestock Production/Industries, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

An Economic Comparison Of Year Round vs Conventional Grazing Systems In Iowa

Year round grazing systems that utilize stockpiled forage and/or crop residue are often promoted as a way for Northern and Western cow-calf producers to reduce winter feeding costs and improve overall profitability. This study compared the profitability of a conventional spring calving/summer grazing- winter drylot herd to a year round system that utilized both spring- and fall-calving herds with weaned calves retained as stockers. Forage supplies in the year round system were derived from stockpiled forage and corn crop residues. We developed a model that randomly generated production values with parameters based on the results of a 3-year study conducted at the Iowa State University McNay Research and Demonstration farm near Chariton, Iowa. The simulated production values were combined with livestock and forage prices prevailing from 1993-2001 to estimate income per head generated by each system. Average income over the nine- year period was equal. However, the year round system was economically superior in 3 years, equivalent in 1 year, and inferior in 5 years.

Lifting the veil of depression and alcoholism in sport coaching: how do we care for carers?

The purpose of this article is to explore the insights of an elite sport coach living with comorbid depression and alcohol misuse. Such consideration is necessary because as coaching is increasingly repositioned as a caring activity the wellbeing of coaches themselves has rarely been considered. To address this gap, a narrative analysis methodology and a story telling approach was used to present the experiences of a case study coach (Steve). The story is derived from Steve’s own perspective and the perspective of his wife, Jane. This novel multi-voiced approach reveals the complex interplay between the sporting environment, Steve’s depression and his alcohol-related problems. In doing so, Steve’s story makes an original contribution by unveiling the issue of mental health in elite sport coaching. Steve’s story depicts the significant impact of depressive symptoms, coupled by excessive alcohol use on a coach, their personal life and their career. Using the work of Goffman and Sartre, the story alludes to how such symptoms can be hidden, to greater and lesser extents, from professional colleagues. This is an important theoretical contribution, because to care for coaches, colleagues, employers and health professionals will need to understand the needs of individuals such as Steve. Developing an open and supportive culture, which accepts that coaches are fallible, may however be a challenge within professional sport contexts

Crowdsourcing good landmarks for in-vehicle navigation systems

Augmenting navigation systems with landmarks has been posited as a method of improving the effectiveness of the technology and enhancing drivers’ engagement with the environment. However, good navigational landmarks are both laborious to collect and difficult to define. This research aimed to devise a game concept, which could be played by passengers in cars, and would collect useful landmark data as a by-product. The paper describes how a virtual graffiti tagging game concept was created and tested during on-road trials with 38 participants. The data collected in the road trials were then validated using a survey, in which 100 respondents assessed the quality of the landmarks collected and their potential for reuse in navigation applications. Players of the game displayed a consensus in choosing where to place their graffiti tags with over 30% of players selecting the same object to tag in 10 of the 12 locations. Furthermore, significant correlation was found between how highly landmarks were rated in the survey and how frequently they were tagged during the game. The research provides evidence that using crowdsourcing games to collect landmarks does not require large numbers of people, or extensive coverage of an area, to produce suitable candidate landmarks for navigation