Chaotic dynamics of falling disks

The study of the motion of flat bodies falling in a viscous medium dates back at least to Newton(1) and Maxwell(2), and is relevant to problems in meteorology(3), sedimentology(4), aerospace engineering(1) and chemical engineering(5-8). More recent theoretical studies(9-12) have emphasized the role played by deterministic chaos, although many experimental studies(1,5-8,13,14) were performed before the development of such ideas. Here we report experimental observations of the dynamics of disks falling in water/glycerol mixtures. We find four distinct types of motion, which are mapped out in a 'phase diagram'. The apparently complex behaviour can be reduced to a series of one-dimensional maps, which display a discontinuity at the crossover from periodic to chaotic motion. This discontinuity leads to an unusual intermittency transition(15), not previously observed experimentally, between the two behaviours.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62793/1/388252a0.pd

Theorems on existence and global dynamics for the Einstein equations

This article is a guide to theorems on existence and global dynamics of solutions of the Einstein equations. It draws attention to open questions in the field. The local-in-time Cauchy problem, which is relatively well understood, is surveyed. Global results for solutions with various types of symmetry are discussed. A selection of results from Newtonian theory and special relativity that offer useful comparisons is presented. Treatments of global results in the case of small data and results on constructing spacetimes with prescribed singularity structure or late-time asymptotics are given. A conjectural picture of the asymptotic behaviour of general cosmological solutions of the Einstein equations is built up. Some miscellaneous topics connected with the main theme are collected in a separate section.Comment: Submitted to Living Reviews in Relativity, major update of Living Rev. Rel. 5 (2002)

Health systems research in Lao PDR: capacity development for getting research into policy and practice

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Lao PDR is a low-income country with an urgent need for evidence-informed policymaking in the healthcare sector. During the last decade a number of Health Systems Research (HSR) projects have been conducted in order to meet this need. However, although knowledge about research is increasing among policymakers, the use of research in policymaking is still limited.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This article investigates the relationship between research and policymaking from the perspective of those participating in HSR projects. The study is based on 28 interviews, two group discussions and the responses from 56 questionnaires.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The interviewees and questionnaire respondents were aware of the barriers to getting research into policy and practice. But while some were optimistic, claiming that there had been a change of attitudes among policymakers in the last two years, others were more pessimistic and did not expect any real changes until years from now. The major barriers to feeding research results into policy and practice included an inability to influence the policy process and to get policymakers and practitioners interested in research results. Another barrier was the lack of continuous capacity development and high-quality research, both of which are related to funding and international support. Many of the interviewees and questionnaire respondents also pointed out that communication between those conducting research and policymakers must be improved.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results show that in the case of Lao PDR, research capacity development is at a crucial stage for implementing research into policy and practice. If research is going to make a consistent impact on policymaking in the Lao health care sector, the attitude towards research will need to be changed in order to get research prioritised, both among those conducting research, and among policymakers and practitioners. Our findings indicate that there is awareness about the barriers in this process.</p

Correlates of Cooperation in a One-Shot High-Stakes Televised Prisoners' Dilemma

Explaining cooperation between non-relatives is a puzzle for both evolutionary biology and the social sciences. In humans, cooperation is often studied in a laboratory setting using economic games such as the prisoners' dilemma. However, such experiments are sometimes criticized for being played for low stakes and by misrepresentative student samples. Golden balls is a televised game show that uses the prisoners' dilemma, with a diverse range of participants, often playing for very large stakes. We use this non-experimental dataset to investigate the factors that influence cooperation when “playing” for considerably larger stakes than found in economic experiments. The game show has earlier stages that allow for an analysis of lying and voting decisions. We found that contestants were sensitive to the stakes involved, cooperating less when the stakes were larger in both absolute and relative terms. We also found that older contestants were more likely to cooperate, that liars received less cooperative behavior, but only if they told a certain type of lie, and that physical contact was associated with reduced cooperation, whereas laughter and promises were reliable signals or cues of cooperation, but were not necessarily detected

Banff 2022 liver group meeting report: monitoring long term allograft health.

The Banff Working Group on Liver Allograft Pathology met in September 2022. Participantsincluded hepatologists, surgeons, pathologists, immunologists and histocompatibility specialists.Presentations and discussions focused on the evaluation of long-term allograft health, including noninvasive and tissue monitoring, immunosuppression optimisation and long-term structural changes.Potential revision of the rejection classification scheme to better accommodate and communicate lateT cell-mediated rejection patterns and related structural changes, such as nodular regenerativehyperplasia, were discussed. Improved stratification of long-term maintenance immunosuppression tomatch the heterogeneity of patient settings will be central to improving long-term patient survival.Such personalised therapeutics are in turn contingent on better understanding and monitoring ofallograft status within a rational decision-making approach, likely to be facilitated in implementationwith emerging decision support tools. Proposed revisions to rejection classification emerging fromthe meeting include incorporation of interface hepatitis and fibrosis staging. These will be opened toonline testing, modified accordingly and subject to consensus discussion leading up to the next Banffconference

Country Concepts and the Rational Actor Trap: Limitations to Strategic Management of International NGOs

Growing criticism of inefficient development aid demanded new planning instruments of donors, including international NGOs (INGOs). A reorientation from isolated project-planning towards holistic country concepts and the increasing rationality of a result-orientated planning process were seen as answer. However, whether these country concepts - newly introduced by major INGOs too - have increased the efficiency of development cooperation is open to question. Firstly, there have been counteracting external factors, like the globalization of the aid business, that demanded structural changes in the composition of INGO portfolios towards growing short-term humanitarian aid; this was hardly compatible with the requirements of medium-term country planning. Secondly, the underlying vision of rationality as a remedy for the major ills of development aid was in itself a fallacy. A major change in the methodology of planning, closely connected with a shift of emphasis in the approach to development cooperation, away from project planning and service delivery, towards supporting the socio-cultural and political environment of the recipient communities, demands a reorientation of aid management: The most urgent change needed is by donors, away from the blinkers of result-orientated planning towards participative organizational cultures of learning.Des critiques croissantes de l'aide au développement inefficace exigent de nouveaux instruments de planification des bailleurs de fonds, y compris les ONG internationales (ONGI). Une réorientation de la planification des projets isolés vers des concepts holistiques de la planification de l’aide par pays ainsi que la rationalité croissante d'un processus de planification orientée vers les résultats ont été considérés comme réponse. Toutefois, si ces concepts de pays - nouvellement introduites par les grandes OING eux aussi - ont augmenté l'efficacité de la coopération au développement est ouvert à la question. Tout d'abord, il y a eu l’impact des facteurs externes, comme la mondialisation de l'entreprise de l'aide, qui a exigé des changements structurels dans la composition des portefeuilles des OING vers la croissance de l'aide humanitaire à court terme. Cela était difficilement compatible avec les exigences de l'aménagement du territoire à moyen terme. Deuxièmement, la vision sous-jacente de la rationalité accrue de la planification, concentré sur les resultats, comme un remède pour les grands maux de l'aide au développement était en soi une erreur. Un changement majeur dans la méthodologie de la planification, étroitement liée à un changement d'orientation dans l'approche de la coopération au développement, qui n’est pas concentrer sur planification du projet et la prestation de services, mais qui soutienne l'environnement socio-culturel et politique des communautés bénéficiaires, exige une réorientation de la gestion de l’aide: Le changement le plus urgent est un changement par les donateurs eux-mêmes, qui devrait implanter des cultures de collaboration étroit avec les partenaires et la population locale

Anastrozole versus tamoxifen for the prevention of locoregional and contralateral breast cancer in postmenopausal women with locally excised ductal carcinoma in situ (IBIS-II DCIS): a double-blind, randomised controlled trial

Background Third-generation aromatase inhibitors are more effective than tamoxifen for preventing recurrence in postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive invasive breast cancer. However, it is not known whether anastrozole is more effective than tamoxifen for women with hormone-receptor-positive ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Here, we compare the efficacy of anastrozole with that of tamoxifen in postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive DCIS. Methods In a double-blind, multicentre, randomised placebo-controlled trial, we recruited women who had been diagnosed with locally excised, hormone-receptor-positive DCIS. Eligible women were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio by central computer allocation to receive 1 mg oral anastrozole or 20 mg oral tamoxifen every day for 5 years. Randomisation was stratified by major centre or hub and was done in blocks (six, eight, or ten). All trial personnel, participants, and clinicians were masked to treatment allocation and only the trial statistician had access to treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was all recurrence, including recurrent DCIS and new contralateral tumours. All analyses were done on a modified intention-to-treat basis (in all women who were randomised and did not revoke consent for their data to be included) and proportional hazard models were used to compute hazard ratios and corresponding confidence intervals. This trial is registered at the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN37546358. Results Between March 3, 2003, and Feb 8, 2012, we enrolled 2980 postmenopausal women from 236 centres in 14 countries and randomly assigned them to receive anastrozole (1449 analysed) or tamoxifen (1489 analysed). Median follow-up was 7·2 years (IQR 5·6–8·9), and 144 breast cancer recurrences were recorded. We noted no statistically significant difference in overall recurrence (67 recurrences for anastrozole vs 77 for tamoxifen; HR 0·89 [95% CI 0·64–1·23]). The non-inferiority of anastrozole was established (upper 95% CI <1·25), but its superiority to tamoxifen was not (p=0·49). A total of 69 deaths were recorded (33 for anastrozole vs 36 for tamoxifen; HR 0·93 [95% CI 0·58–1·50], p=0·78), and no specific cause was more common in one group than the other. The number of women reporting any adverse event was similar between anastrozole (1323 women, 91%) and tamoxifen (1379 women, 93%); the side-effect profiles of the two drugs differed, with more fractures, musculoskeletal events, hypercholesterolaemia, and strokes with anastrozole and more muscle spasm, gynaecological cancers and symptoms, vasomotor symptoms, and deep vein thromboses with tamoxifen. Conclusions No clear efficacy differences were seen between the two treatments. Anastrozole offers another treatment option for postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive DCIS, which may be be more appropriate for some women with contraindications for tamoxifen. Longer follow-up will be necessary to fully evaluate treatment differences

Disruption prediction at JET through deep convolutional neural networks using spatiotemporal information from plasma profiles

In view of the future high power nuclear fusion experiments, the early identification of disruptions is a mandatory requirement, and presently the main goal is moving from the disruption mitigation to disruption avoidance and control. In this work, a deep-convolutional neural network (CNN) is proposed to provide early detection of disruptive events at JET. The CNN ability to learn relevant features, avoiding hand-engineered feature extraction, has been exploited to extract the spatiotemporal information from 1D plasma profiles. The model is trained with regularly terminated discharges and automatically selected disruptive phase of disruptions, coming from the recent ITER-like-wall experiments. The prediction performance is evaluated using a set of discharges representative of different operating scenarios, and an in-depth analysis is made to evaluate the performance evolution with respect to the considered experimental conditions. Finally, as real-time triggers and termination schemes are being developed at JET, the proposed model has been tested on a set of recent experiments dedicated to plasma termination for disruption avoidance and mitigation. The CNN model demonstrates very high performance, and the exploitation of 1D plasma profiles as model input allows us to understand the underlying physical phenomena behind the predictor decision