Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising the relevant monthly indicators, simple bridge equations with one explanatory variable are estimated for each. The individual forecasts generated by each equation are then pooled, using six weighting schemes including Bayesian ones. To take into consideration the release calendar of each indicator, six forecasts are compiled independently during the quarter, each based on different information sets: different indicators, different individual equations and finally different weights to aggregate information. The information content of the various blocks of information at different points in time for each GDP component is then discussed. It appears that taking into account the information flow results in significant changes in the weight allocated to each block of information, especially when the first month of hard data becomes available. This conclusion, reached for all the components and most of the weighting scheme, supports and extends the findings of Giannone, Reichlin and Small (2006) and Banbura and Rünstler (2007). An out-of-sample forecast comparison exercise is also carried out for each component and GDP directly. The forecast performance is found to vary widely across components. Two weighting schemes are found to outperform the equal weighting scheme in almost all cases. One-quarter ahead, the direct forecast of GDP is found to outperform the bottom-up approach. However, the nowcast resulting in the lowest forecast errors is derived from the bottom-up approach. JEL Classification: C22, C53, E17forecast pooling, GDP components, Large dataset, weighting scheme

Profit dynamics across the largest euro area countries and sectors

This paper explores the behavior of profits in the four largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) and the euro area as a whole, while at the same time considering three main sectors (manufacturing, construction and services) in each economy over the period 1988–2010. The paper presents stylized facts about profit developments and, applying a vector autoregressive modeling framework, discusses the sensitivity of profits to four distinctive structural shocks (a demand shock, an employment shock, a wage and price mark-up shocks). In addition, it provides the shock decomposition of historical developments in profits across countries and sectors. JEL Classification: C32, E23, E25historical decomposition, Impulse responses, Profits, sectoral determinants, VARs

Profit Dynamics across the Largest Euro Area countries and Sectors

This paper explores the behavior of profits in the four largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) and the euro area as a whole, while at the same time considering three main sectors (manufacturing, construction and services) in each economy over the period 1988–2010. The paper presents stylized facts about profit developments and, applying a vector autoregressive modeling framework, discusses the sensitivity of profits to four distinctive structural shocks (a demand shock, an employment shock, a wage and price mark-up shocks). In addition, it provides the shock decomposition of historical developments in profits across countries and sectors.Profits, sectoral determinants, VARs, impulse responses, historical decomposition

EIB Working Paper 2021/04 - Aggregate productivity slowdown in Europe

Using firm balance sheet data, this paper shows the impact of credit constraints on allocative efficiency and productivity growth. Allocative efficiency is the extent to which resources, including labour, are distributed to firms with the highest growth prospects, or “stuck” in less productive firms. This paper uses firm balance sheet data to analyse the role of financial constraints in the relatively muted post-crisis rebound in productivity in 2014-17, compared to previous upturns in Europe. It shows that the level of financial leverage played an important role in explaining the change in aggregate productivity growth in Europe between 2004 and 2017. Focusing on Northern and Western Europe, it also shows that the productivity potential could not be fully exploited due to constraints on access to credit. It estimates that reducing collateral bottlenecks could more than double the effectiveness of financial leverage in spurring productivity growth in this region between 2014-17

OFDR Distributed Strain Measurements for SHM of Hydrostatic Stressed Structures: An Application to High Pressure Hydrogen Storage Type IV Composite Vessels - H2E Project

International audienceThis paper deals with SHM of Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV) for high pressure hydrogen storage, based on embedded optical fibres and Rayleigh OFDR. Fibre Bragg Gratings in situ strain measurements on flat samples are first presented to assess the mechanical state of such anisotropic structures, and define a preliminary SHM criterion. Comparative fatigue tests were also performed on NOL rings to evaluate optical fibres mechanical impact, but their analysis in terms of energy revealed the difficulty to provide reliable results if the first cycles energy is not accurately controlled. Therefore, with no detrimental effect of the optical fibre embedment within the composite architecture, several instrumented pressure vessels were manufactured and tested. Accordingly, a mechanical criterion based on OFDR differential strain profiles analysis was defined to bring out internal defects, demonstrating the ability to early detect and locate internal flaws without requirements to inflate vessels at high pressures. Additionally, their sensitivity vs. pressure, analysed during a first burst test, provided additional valuable data about structure integrity. Finally, we define four complementary criteria based on in situ strain measurements to control pressure vessels for damage assessment, or any hydrostatic stressed structure since the underlying principles rely on strains proportionality vs. uniformly applied stresses

Los turistas en el centro histórico de Salamanca: tránsito, percepción y (des)conocimiento

Salamanca se ha convertido en un destino relevante del turismo de interior en España gracias a la política de programación de acontecimientos culturales que se inició en 1993 con la exposición Las Edades del Hombre. Pero los turistas concentran sus itinerarios y visitas en el eje que une la Plaza Mayor con las catedrales y la Universidad a través de la Rúa Mayor. Su percepción de la riqueza patrimonial de la ciudad es, por tanto, muy limitada, como demuestran los resultados del trabajo de campo y de un cuestionario aplicado a los turistas. Este artículo propone medidas para extender la red de recorridos turísticos y enriquecer la experiencia de los turistas que visitan Salamanca

Cosmic-ray ransport parameters and fluorine source abundance from AMS-02 F/Si data

The AMS-02 collaboration recently released cosmic-ray data of unprecedented accuracy for F/Si. In this work, we have studied if this new data can be reproduced by propagation models tuned on lighter secondary-to-primary ratios (Li/C, Be/C, B/C), and how much F at source can be accommodated by the new data, using a 1D diffusion model (USINE code) and performing χ2 analyses accounting for several systematics (energy correlations in data, nuclear cross-sections, and solar modulation uncertainties). The model tuned on Li/C, Be/C, and B/C AMS-02 data overshoots F/Si data by 10-15%. However, this difference can be explained by the 19F production cross-sections uncertainties from a few dominant channels (60% of the produced F comes from the fragmentation of 20Ne, 24Mg, and 28Si). We concluded that all secondary species from Li to F can be explained by the same transport parameters. Additionally, we also draw limits on the F source abundance (relative to Si)

Cosmic-ray ransport parameters and fluorine source abundance from AMS-02 F/Si data

The AMS-02 collaboration recently released cosmic-ray data of unprecedented accuracy for F/Si. In this work, we have studied if this new data can be reproduced by propagation models tuned on lighter secondary-to-primary ratios (Li/C, Be/C, B/C), and how much F at source can be accommodated by the new data, using a 1D diffusion model (USINE code) and performing χ2 analyses accounting for several systematics (energy correlations in data, nuclear cross-sections, and solar modulation uncertainties). The model tuned on Li/C, Be/C, and B/C AMS-02 data overshoots F/Si data by 10-15%. However, this difference can be explained by the 19F production cross-sections uncertainties from a few dominant channels (60% of the produced F comes from the fragmentation of 20Ne, 24Mg, and 28Si). We concluded that all secondary species from Li to F can be explained by the same transport parameters. Additionally, we also draw limits on the F source abundance (relative to Si)

Experimental evaluation of contact stress during cold rolling process with optical fiber Bragg gratings sensors measurements and fast inverse method

International audienceThere is a strategic importance for the steel rolling industry to get a better understanding of the strip–roll interaction to improve roll-gap models, increase strip quality and decrease roll degradation. This requires roll-gap sensors able to measure this interaction under industrial rolling conditions and in real time in order to propose a feed-back control of process parameters. To reach these goals, this paper proposes a new roll-gap friction sensor based on an inverse method that interprets optical fiber Bragg gratings(FBG) strain measurements under the roll surface (fully embedded), which enables to evaluate contact stresses with very short computation times, compatible with real time interpretation. This elastic inverse method is analytical and relies on plane-strain and isothermal assumptions. The experimental apparatus is detailed, technical issues are clearly exposed as well as calibration procedures. Several pilot cold rolling tests have been performed at various rolling speeds and different strip thicknesses in order to demonstrate the industrial feasibility. Resulting evaluations of contact stresses are then compared with numerical simulations. Reasonable agreement is obtained for normal stress (i.e., pressure) but not for shear stress(only an order of magnitude is obtained)

AMS-02 antiprotons and dark matter: Trimmed hints and robust bounds

Based on 4 yr AMS-02 antiproton data, we present bounds on the dark matter (DM) annihilation cross section vs. mass for some representative final state channels. We use recent cosmic-ray propagation models, a realistic treatment of experimental and theoretical errors, and an updated calculation of input antiproton spectra based on a recent release of the PYTHIA code. We find that reported hints of a DM signal are statistically insignificant; an adequate treatment of errors is crucial for credible conclusions. Antiproton bounds on DM annihilation are among the most stringent ones, probing thermal DM up to the TeV scale. The dependence of the bounds upon propagation models and the DM halo profile is also quantified. A preliminary estimate reaches similar conclusions when applied to the 7 years AMS-02 dataset, but also suggests extra caution as for possible future claims of DM excesses.Comment: v2: 33 pages, 6 figures (two of which in two panels); clarifications and a couple of references added, conclusions unchange