Fear of China: Is there a future for manufacturing in Latin America?

China’s emergence has raised pointed questions about the future of manufacturing in Latin America. Once saw as its economic future, the viability of this activity in the region has long been challenged by traditional trade theory and, in practical terms, by at least three generations of Asian Tigers. China and its “unlimited supply of labor”, rapid productivity growth, scale, and extremely interventionist state has brought the practical challenge to unprecedented levels. This paper, using mainly descriptive production and trade statistics, looks at the nature of this challenge and its implications. It begins by dealing with a central issue: Does manufacturing still matter for Latin America’s development? It argues that even though there are other options that should be exploited, the region cannot afford to completely turn its back to a well-proven road to development. It then moves on to examine the scope and nature of the Chinese challenge. It shows that endowments, productivity, scale and the government role, all work together to make China a formidable competitor. The importance of this challenge is confirmed by an analysis of the trade data, which suggests a small impact so far, but a trend that should make Latin American policy makers uncomfortable in their seats. The paper concludes by discussing, in general terms, the (difficult) policy options available.Latin America, China, Manufacturing

Brazil’s Trade Liberalization and Growth: Has it Failed?

Unfulfilled expectations about economic growth in Brazil has led many observers to question the ability of the new, open trade regime to put the economy back on an path of sustainable growth. Whereas the country’s growth record has been really poor, the evidence suggests that the underlying causes had nothing to do with trade. Quite the contrary. This paper shows that trade liberalization has given an important contribution to two of the main drivers of growth: productivity and investment in physical capital. It argues that these gains were not turned into growth due to an unfavorable macro and institutional environment. It also claims that Brazil could have enjoyed more gains from trade, had it pursued a more aggressive trade policy at home and abroad. The paper concludes by outlining the main issues of a pro- growth, trade policy agenda for the country.Brazil, Trade, Growth

Brazil's trade policy: Old and new issues

After a half century of overtly inward-oriented policies, Brazil finally moved to open its trade regime in the early 1990s. Being one the last countries to make this move in a region that notoriously lagged behind East Asia, Brazil was quick to implement a comprehensive trade liberalization program, which had strong unilateral and regional components. In roughly five years, tariffs were slashed, nontariff barriers were removed, and Mercosur became a reality. Later on, even the possibility of a free trade zone for the hemisphere was entertained. Yet this initial momentum lost steam in the mid-1990s, undermined by inhospitable macroeconomic and international environments. When, at the turn of the century, the right macroeconomic policies were finally put in place and Brazil began to enjoy the benefits of a commodity boom, a new government took over that clearly had a skeptical view of trade. Despite initial concern, however, the political transition did not bring a significant policy reversal. But trade policy reform never regained its momentum, despite its unfinished agenda. This paper examines this agenda and argues that if Brazil really wants to fully enjoy the growth and welfare benefits of trade, it needs to further lower and rationalize its structure of protection; adopt a more aggressive, World Trade Organization-plus, policy to open markets abroad; design a regional integration strategy that makes sense to its smaller partners; and bring trade facilitation, particularly transport costs, to the core of its trade agenda

Integration, resource reallocation and productivity: the cases of Brazil and Chile

Most microeconometric studies available for LAC have focused on measuring the direct impact of trade on plant productivity leaving aside other effects that arise through the market selection process. Additionally, most studies have focused on tariff barriers as the only obstacle to international trade and integration. In this paper we use data from Brazil and Chile to analyze how trade affects aggregate productivity through the process of resource reallocation and to explore not only the role of tariffs but also the role of transport costs. We find that trade costs affect the reallocative process by protecting inefficient producers, lowering their likelihood to exit, and also by limiting the expansion of efficient plants, lowering their likelihood to export. We also find that the reallocative impacts of trade come not only from tariff barriers but also from transport costs.Tariff barriers, transport costs, productivity, resource reallocation

India: Latin America's Next Big Thing?

In the last decade, the economic performance of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) were radically transformed by the emergence of China--a fast growing, immensely populous and resource-scarce economy--which has brought both opportunities and challenges for all countries in the region. While the full impact of China it is still unfolding, the region is already coming to terms with a new “shock” brought about by another fast growing, one-billion-plus-people economy: India. What is behind India’s emergence? What challenges and opportunities does it bring to LAC? Can India replicate the explosive trade LAC has with China? This report deals with these questions. It shows first, that India’s growth story defies any easy characterization. Second, that, yes, there seems to be a large potential for LAC to trade with India and largely for the same reasons that its trade with China has took off: complementarity of their factor endowments. There are, though, major obstacles, mainly in the form of tariffs and transports costs. And third, that even though the competitive challenges brought by India abroad has so far being limited to IT services, the country has the potential to be a major competitor in manufacturing goods

Integration, resources reallocation and productivity: The cases of Brazil and Chile

Most microeconometric studies available for LAC have focused on measuring the direct impact of trade on plant productivity leaving aside other effects that arise through the market selection process. Additionally, most studies have focused on tariff barriers as the only obstacle to international trade and integration. In this paper we use data from Brazil and Chile to analyze how trade affects aggregate productivity through the process of resource reallocation and to explore not only the role of tariffs but also the role of transport costs. We find that trade costs affect the reallocative process by protecting inefficient producers, lowering their likelihood to exit, and also by limiting the expansion of efficient plants, lowering their likelihood to export. We also find that the reallocative impacts of trade come not only from tariff barriers but also from transport costs

Where is Brazil going? Taking stock of recent trends in industrial and trade policies and the challenges ahead

Brazil’s trade and industrial policies in the last decade has taken an increasingly sharp turn towards boosting and protecting the local manufacturing industry, particular after the 2008 financial crisis. This paper reviews these policies and their initial results and argues that, while they have brought some short-term relief, they have done so at the cost of undermining the fundamentals of long-term growth. The country’s recent lackluster economic performance—an unfortunate combination of high inflation, low growth, and a deteriorating current account deficit seem to confirm this view

Os impactos da abertura comercial sobre a remuneração relativa do trabalho no Brasil

The aim ofthis paper is to study the impacts oftrade liberalization on employment and workers' earnings in Brazil from 1985 to 1997. The main data source come from National Household Surveys (PNAD) accomplished by the Bureau of Statistics (IBGE). The theoretical referential is the Heckscher-Ohlin model and the StolperSamuelson theorem. The research shows that in Brazil there was not significant shift in the workers' relative employment or any relevant inequality of revenues deterioration, unlike observed in other Latin American countries

Integration, resource reallocation and productivity: the cases of Brazil and Chile

Most microeconometric studies available for LAC have focused on measuring the direct impact of trade on plant productivity leaving aside other effects that arise through the market selection process. Additionally, most studies have focused on tariff barriers as the only obstacle to international trade and integration. In this paper we use data from Brazil and Chile to analyze how trade affects aggregate productivity through the process of resource reallocation and to explore not only the role of tariffs but also the role of transport costs. We find that trade costs affect the reallocative process by protecting inefficient producers, lowering their likelihood to exit, and also by limiting the expansion of efficient plants, lowering their likelihood to export. We also find that the reallocative impacts of trade come not only from tariff barriers but also from transport costs

Integration, resource reallocation and productivity: the cases of Brazil and Chile

Most microeconometric studies available for LAC have focused on measuring the direct impact of trade on plant productivity leaving aside other effects that arise through the market selection process. Additionally, most studies have focused on tariff barriers as the only obstacle to international trade and integration. In this paper we use data from Brazil and Chile to analyze how trade affects aggregate productivity through the process of resource reallocation and to explore not only the role of tariffs but also the role of transport costs. We find that trade costs affect the reallocative process by protecting inefficient producers, lowering their likelihood to exit, and also by limiting the expansion of efficient plants, lowering their likelihood to export. We also find that the reallocative impacts of trade come not only from tariff barriers but also from transport costs