Self-Annuitization, Ruin Risk in Retirement and Asset Allocation: The Annuity Benchmark

The present paper considers a retiree of a certain age with an initial endowment of investable wealth facing the following alternative investment opportunities. One possibility is to buy a single premium immediate annuity-contract. This insurance contract pays a life-long constant pension payment of a certain amount, depending e.g. on the age of the retiree, the operating cost of the insurance company and the return the company is able to realize from its investments. The alternative possibility is to invest the single premium into a portfolio of mutual funds and to periodically withdraw a fixed amount, in the present paper chosen to be equivalent to the consumption stream generated by the annuity . The particular advantage of this self annuitization strategy compared to the life annuity is its greater liquidity. However, the risk of the second opportunity is to outlive the income stream generated by this investment. The risk in this sense is specified by considering the probability of running out of money before the uncertain date of death. The determination of this personal ruin probability with respect to German mortality and capital market conditions is the objective of the following paper.

On the Risks of Stocks in the Long Run:A Probabilistic Approach Based on Measures of Shortfall Risk

The present paper examines the long-term risks of a representative one-time investment in German stocks (DAX/0) in real terms relative to various risk free investments (returns of 0%, 2% and 4% in real terms) as well as relative to a representative investment in German bonds (REXP). As underlying risk measures the shortfall probability, the mean excess loss (conditional shortfall expectation) as well as the product of these two measures, the shortfall expectation have been used. One main structural result is that the mean excess loss is monotonously increasing over time. This reveals a long-term worst case-characteristic of a stock investment.

Gorillas Garbage and Girls

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Development and applications of Plabsoft : a computer program for population genetic data analyses and simulations in plant breeding

Marker-assisted breeding approaches are promising tools for enhancement of the conventional plant breeding process. They have been successfully applied in many areas such as plant variety protection, classification of germplasm, assessment of genetic diversity, mapping of genes underlying important agronomic traits, and using the mapping information for selection decisions. Powerful and flexible bioinformatic tools are urgently required for a better integration of molecular marker applications and classical plant breeding methods. The objective of my thesis work was to develop and apply Plabsoft, a computer program for population genetic data analyses and simulations in plant breeding. The assumption of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium is a cornerstone of many concepts in population and quantitative genetics. Therefore, tests for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium are of crucial importance, but the assumptions underlying asymptotic chi-square tests are often not met in datasets from plant breeding programs. I developed and implemented in Plabsoft a new algorithm for exact tests of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium with multiple alleles. The newly derived algorithm has considerable computational advantages over previously described algorithms and extends substantially the range of problems that can be tested. Knowledge about the amount and distribution of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in breeding populations is of fundamental importance to assess the prospects for gene mapping with whole-genome association studies. To analyze LD in breeding populations, I implemented various LD measures in Plabsoft and developed a new significance test for these LD measures. The routines were employed to analyze LD in 497 elite maize lines from a commercial hybrid breeding program, which were fingerprinted by 81 simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers covering the entire genome. Strong LD was detected and, therefore, whole-genome association studies were recommended as promising. However, LD between unlinked loci will most likely result in a high rate of false positives. The prediction of hybrid performance with DNA markers facilitates the identification of superior hybrids. The single marker models used so far do not take into account the correlation between allele frequencies at linked markers. To overcome this problem, the concept of haplotype blocks was proposed. I developed and implemented in Plabsoft three alternative algorithms for haplotype block detection suitable for plant breeding. The algorithms were applied for the haplotype-based prediction of the hybrid performance of 270 hybrids, the parents of which were fingerprinted with 20 amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) primer combinations. Employing haplotypes resulted in an improved prediction of hybrid performance compared with single marker models. Consequently, haplotype-based prediction methods have a high potential to improve substantially the efficiency of hybrid breeding programs. Computer simulations can be employed to solve population genetic problems in plant breeding, for which the simplifying assumptions underlying the classical population genetic theory do not hold true. However, before the start of my thesis no flexible simulation software was available. I developed algorithms for simulation of single breeding steps and entire plant breeding programs and implemented these in Plabsoft. The routines allow the simulation of plant breeding programs as they are conducted in practice. The simulation routines of Plabsoft were validated by simulating two marker-assisted backcross programs in rice conducted by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). In the simulations, the frequency distributions of the proportion of recurrent parent genome in the backcross populations were assessed. The simulation results were in good agreement with the experimental data. Therefore, computer simulations are a useful tool for pre-test estimation of selection response in marker-assisted backcrossing. The application of Plabsoft was exemplified by two studies in maize. In the first study, the expected LD decay in the intermating generations of two recurrent selections programs was determined with simulations. This application demonstrates the use of Plabsoft to solve problems for which analytical results are not available. In the second study, the forces generating and maintaining LD in a hybrid maize breeding program were investigated with computer simulations. This application demonstrates the capability of modeling complex long-term breeding programs as performed in practice. The studies of my thesis provide an example for the broad range of possible applications of Plabsoft. In addition to the presented studies, Plabsoft has so far been employed in about 40 further studies, which corroborates the usefulness of Plabsoft for integrating new genomic tools in applied plant breeding programs.DNA Marker werden in der Pflanzenzüchtung zum Erkennen von Sortenplagiaten, zur Gruppierung von Zuchtmaterial, zur Überwachung der genetischen Diversität, zur Kartierung von Genen, die für die Ausprägung wichtiger agronomischer Merkmale verantwortlich sind, sowie zur marker-gestützten Selektion eingesetzt. Um die Markertechnologie in die Methodik der klassischen Pflanzenzüchtung zu integrieren, werden dringend flexible und leistungsfähige bioinformatische Konzepte und darauf basierende Computerprogramme benötigt. Das Ziel dieser Arbeit war es, Plabsoft, ein Computerprogramm zur populationsgenetischen Datenanalyse und Simulation von Pflanzenzüchtungsprogrammen, zu entwickeln und anzuwenden. Die Annahme, dass sich eine Population im Hardy-Weinberg Gleichgewicht befindet, liegt vielen Konzepten der Populationsgenetik und der quantitativen Genetik zugrunde. Deswegen sind statistische Tests auf Hardy-Weinberg Gleichgewicht von großer Bedeutung. In Datensätzen aus Pflanzenzüchtungsprogrammen treffen die statistischen Annahmen, welche den oft verwendeten Chi-Quadrat-Tests zugrunde liegen, häufig nicht zu. Aus diesem Grund wurde in dieser Arbeit ein neuer Algorithmus für einen exakten Test auf Hardy-Weinberg Gleichgewicht mit multiplen Allelen entwickelt und in Plabsoft umgesetzt. Der neu implementierte Algorithmus ist deutlich schneller als alle vorher beschriebenen Algorithmen und erlaubt somit eine bedeutende Erweiterung für den Anwendungsbereich exakter Hardy-Weinberg Tests. Die genaue Kenntnis der Höhe und Verteilung von Gametenphasenungleichgewicht (linkage disequilibrium, LD) in pflanzenzüchterischen Populationen ist von großer Bedeutung, um die Erfolgsaussichten genomweiter Assoziationsstudien abschätzen zu können. Zu diesem Zweck wurde die Berechnung der wichtigsten LD Maße in Plabsoft implementiert und ein neuer Signifikanztest für die LD Maße entwickelt. Die neu entwickelten Routinen wurden zur Analyse des LD in einem kommerziellen Hybridmaiszüchtungsprogramm verwendet. Hierzu wurden 497 Inzuchtlinien mit 81 SSR (simple sequence repeat, Mikrosatelliten) Markern genotypisiert und ein hohes Ausmaß an LD detektiert, so dass genomweite Assoziationskartierungsansätze vielversprechend erscheinen. Jedoch ist zu erwarten, dass aufgrund des hohen Ausmaßes an LD zwischen ungekoppelten Markerloci viele falsch positive Assoziationen beobachtet werden. Eine markergestützte Vorhersage der Hybridleistung vereinfacht die Identifizierung überlegener Kreuzungskombinationen. Bisher wurden hierfür nur Vorhersagemodelle verwendet, die auf einzelnen Markerloci basieren und die Korrelationsstruktur zwischen Allelen an benachbarten Markerloci nicht berücksichtigen. In der Humangenetik wurde vorgeschlagen, benachbarte Markerloci zu sogenannten Haploblöcken zusammenzufassen, um das Problem der Multikolinearität zu lösen. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurden drei unterschiedliche Algorithmen zur Detektion von Haploblöcken im Zuchtmaterial erarbeitet und in Plabsoft umgesetzt. Die Routinen wurden für eine haplotyp-basierte Vorhersage der Leistung von 270 Hybriden verwendet, deren Eltern mit 20 AFLP (amplified fragment length polymorphism) Primerkombinationen untersucht wurden. Die Vorhersage der Hybridleistung konnte durch die Verwendung von Haploblöcken verbessert werden. Folglich haben haplotyp-basierte Vorhersagemethoden ein großes Potential, die Effizienz von Hybridzuchtprogrammen zu steigern. Computersimulationen können in der Pflanzenzüchtung zur Lösung populationsgenetischer Fragestellungen auch dann angewendet werden, wenn die Annahmen, welche der klassischen populationsgenetischen Theorie zugrunde liegen, nicht erfüllt sind. Vor Beginn dieser Arbeit stand jedoch keine Software zur Verfügung, welche auf flexible Art und Weise Simulationen pflanzenzüchterischer Fragestellungen ermöglicht hätte. Aus diesem Grund wurden Algorithmen entwickelt, die die Simulation einzelner Züchtungsschritte sowie kompletter Pflanzenzüchtungsprogramme ermöglichen. Die entwickelten Algorithmen wurden im Computerprogramm Plabsoft umgesetzt, so dass es jetzt möglich ist, komplexe Pflanzenzüchtungsprogramme praxisnah zu simulieren. Die Simulationsroutinen von Plabsoft wurden an einem experimentellen Datensatz zur markergestützten Introgression eines Überflutungstoleranzgens in Reis validiert. Hierzu wurde das gesamte Zuchtprogramm, wie es in der Praxis durchgeführt wurde, simuliert. In den Simulationen wurde die Häufigkeitsverteilung des rekurrenten Eltergenomanteils in den Rückkreuzungspopulationen erfasst. Die Simulationsergebnisse stimmten nahezu vollständig mit den experimentell beobachteten Daten überein. Dies belegt, dass Computersimulationen ein äußerst effektives Hilfsmittel sind, um den Selektionserfolg bei der markergestützten Rückkreuzung abzuschätzen. Die Anwendung der Simulations- und Analysesoftware Plabsoft wurde exemplarisch an zwei Studien dargestellt. In der ersten Studie wurde mit Hilfe von Simulationen der zu erwartende Abfall an LD in den Durchkreuzungsgenerationen bei zwei rekurrenten Selektionsprogrammen in Mais bestimmt. Diese Studie demonstriert die Anwendung von Plabsoft zur Lösung von Fragestellungen, für welche keine analytische Lösungen zur Verfügung stehen. In der zweiten Studie wurden mit Hilfe von Computersimulationen die Ursachen untersucht, welche in einem Hybridmaiszuchtprogramm LD generieren und aufrecht erhalten. Hiermit wurde gezeigt, dass mit Plabsoft komplexe praktische Zuchtprogramme modelliert werden können. Die Studien dieser Arbeit geben einen Überblick über das breite Anwendungsspektrum der entwickelten Simulations- und Analysesoftware Plabsoft. Darüber hinaus wurde Plabsoft bis jetzt in vierzig weiteren Studien verwendet, womit die Nützlichkeit von Plabsoft für die Integration neuer genomischer Werkzeuge in die angewandte Züchtungsforschung zweifelsfrei belegt wird

FCL: a purely functional language for data-flow programming

The programming language FCL (Functional Computing Language) is presented in some detail. FCL is a functional language which combines several features of existing applicative languages. Some of these features are generalized versions of their counterparts in other languages. A new feature which FCL presents is the modeling of data-structures as functions;A short quantitative comparison between FCL and five other languages is presented. The data for this comparison also serve as a set of examples which demonstrate the features of FCL;An algebraic algorithm for translating a restricted form of FCL to combinatoric form is presented. The pure combinatory code generated by this algorithm is suitable for generation of efficient data-flow graphs. This algorithm allows some of the benefits of demand-driven architectures to be realized in data-driven code;Finally, a theoretical foundation for the study of shared data is presented. Formal definitions for the concepts of timing, processes, and process communication are presented. These concepts are used to define a self-contained solution to the shared-data problem

Optimal Investment Policies for Hybrid Pension Plans - Analyzing the Perspective of Sponsors and Members

This paper analyzes investment strategies in the context of alternative hybrid pension plans which are optimal either from the perspective of the plan sponsor or the beneficiaries. The focus is in particular on how the introduction of minimum and maximum limits for pension benefits as well as minimum guarantees and caps on the return of the members’ individual investment accounts affect the investment decision. The study finds that portfolio choice of sponsor and beneficiaries shows substantial differences depending on the exact plan design and the beneficiaries’ risk aversion. The introduction of caps on investment returns emerged a possible means to reduce such differences and to share investment risks and returns more equally between sponsor and beneficiaries.

Self-Annuitization, Consumption Shortfall in Retirement and Asset Allocation : the Annuity Benchmark

The present paper considers a retiree of a certain age who is endowed with a certain amount of wealth and is facing alternative investment opportunities. One possibility is to buy a single premium immediate (participating) annuity-contract. This insurance product pays a life-long pension payment of a certain amount, depending e.g. on the age of the retiree, the operating cost of the insurance company and the return the company is able to realize from its investments. The alternative possibility is to invest the single premium into a portfolio of mutual funds and to periodically withdraw a fixed amount that is assumed to be equivalent to the consumption stream generated by the annuity. The particular advantage of this self annuitization strategy compared to the life annuity is its greater liquidity and the possibility of leaving out money for heirs. However, the risk of self annuitization is to outlive assets before the uncertain date of death. The risk can thus be specified by considering the probability of running out of money before the uncertain date of death. The determination of this personal probability of consumption shortfall with respect to German insurance and capital market conditions is the objective of this paper

Erfahrungen an der Schnittstelle von Medienarbeit und Praxisforschung

Der Beitrag reflektiert die Verbindung von praktischer Medienarbeit und Forschung am Beispiel eines internationalen EU-Forschungsprojekts zum Thema Medien und Migration. Neben didaktischen Prinzipien und Konzepten für die aktive Medienarbeit im Forschungskontext geht es um die Kooperation von medienpädagogischer Begleitung (MB) und wissenschaftlicher Begleitung (WB) sowie um deren spezifische Kompetenzen

Self-annuitization, ruin risk in retirement and asset allocation : the annuity benchmark

The present paper considers a retiree of a certain age with an initial endowment of investable wealth facing the following alternative investment opportunities. One possibility is to buy a single premium immediate annuity-contract. This insurance contract pays a life-long constant pension payment of a certain amount, depending e.g. on the age of the retiree, the operating cost of the insurance company and the return the company is able to realize from its investments. The alternative possibility is to invest the single premium into a portfolio of mutual funds and to periodically withdraw a fixed amount, in the present paper chosen to be equivalent to the consumption stream generated by the annuity . The particular advantage of this self annuitization strategy compared to the life annuity is its greater liquidity. However, the risk of the second opportunity is to outlive the income stream generated by this investment. The risk in this sense is specified by considering the probability of running out of money before the uncertain date of death. The determination of this personal ruin probability with respect to German mortality and capital market conditions is the objective of the following paper

A blessing or a double-edged sword?

This study investigated the interplay of politicians’ perceptions regarding the political influence of leading newspapers and the mass media’s general impact on democracy. The scope of the study was restricted to democratic-corporatist media systems. We used comparative data of political elites (N = 392; countries: Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland) and assessed direct and indirect effects of their perceptions about national broadsheets’ political influence on the mass media’s perceived general impact on democracy. As expected, we found a positive direct effect regarding perceptions of the media’s role in democracy that corresponds with theories stressing the ‘guard-dog role’ of the quality press for political elites. However, we also found a negative indirect effect of perceived newspaper influence through perceptions of the media’s agenda-setting and career-controlling power. We argue that this effect can be explained by feelings of disempowerment among politicians. Arguably, perceived disempowerment causes criticism from political actors towards the media inasmuch as they feel constrained in the full exercise of their democratic functions