Yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde iş çevrimleri: finansal şokların rolü.

This dissertation documents the differences in the course of macroeconomic volatility in emerging market economies and advanced countries. Then the dynamics of emerging market business cycles and macroeconomic effects of financial shocks are investigated using a small open economy real business cycle model with credit constraints calibrated to the Turkish economy. The results indicate that the impact of financial shocks crucially depends on whether the firms can access to alternative sources of finance when borrowing conditions are unfavorable. If the firms can raise their cash flows through other means, the impact of the credit shocks is limited on important macroeconomic aggregates like investment, employment and output. However, conversely, if firms cannot resort to alternative sources of finance in bad times, the negative impact of financial shocks can be quite large. The quantitative analysis implies that financial shocks can account for more than 20 per cent of output fluctuations in the latter case under our benchmark calibration.Ph.D. - Doctoral Progra