The frequency and validity of self-reported diagnosis of Parkinson's Disease in the UK elderly: MRC CFAS cohort

Background: Estimates of the incidence and prevalence of chronic diseases can be made using established cohort studies but these estimates may have lower reliability if based purely on self-reported diagnosis.Methods: The MRC Cognitive Function & Ageing Study ( MRC CFAS) has collected longitudinal data from a population-based random sample of 13004 individuals over the age of 65 years from 5 centres within the UK. Participants were asked at baseline and after a two-year follow-up whether they had received a diagnosis of Parkinson's disease. Our aim was to make estimates of the incidence and prevalence of PD using self-reporting, and then investigate the validity of self-reported diagnosis using other data sources where available, namely death certification and neuropathological examination.Results: The self-reported prevalence of Parkinson's disease ( PD) amongst these individuals increases with age from 0.7% (95% CI 0.5 - 0.9) for 65 - 75, 1.4% ( 95% CI 1.0 - 1.7) for 75 - 85, and 1.6% ( 95% CI 1.0 - 2.3) for 85+ age groups respectively. The overall incidence of self reported PD in this cohort was 200/100,000 per year ( 95% CI 144 - 278). Only 40% of the deceased individuals reporting prevalent PD and 35% of those reporting incident PD had diagnoses of PD recorded on their death certificates. Neuropathological examination of individuals reporting PD also showed typical PD changes in only 40%, with the remainder showing basal ganglia pathologies causing parkinsonism rather than true PD pathology.Conclusion: Self-reporting of PD status may be used as a screening tool to identify patients for epidemiological study, but inevitably identifies a heterogeneous group of movement disorders patients. Within this group, age, male sex, a family history of PD and reduced cigarette smoking appear to act as independent risk factors for self-reported PD

An HI Imaging Survey of Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars

We present an imaging study of a sample of eight asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars in the HI 21-cm line. Using observations from the Very Large Array, we have unambiguously detected HI emission associated with the extended circumstellar envelopes of six of the targets. The detected HI masses range from M_HI ~ 0.015-0.055 M_sun. The HI morphologies and kinematics are diverse, but in all cases appear to be significantly influenced by the interaction between the circumstellar envelope and the surrounding medium. Four stars (RX Lep, Y UMa, Y CVn, and V1942 Sgr) are surrounded by detached HI shells ranging from 0.36 to 0.76 pc across. We interpret these shells as resulting from material entrained in a stellar outflow being abruptly slowed at a termination shock where it meets the local medium. RX Lep and TX Psc, two stars with moderately high space velocities (V_space>56 km/s), exhibit extended gaseous wakes (~0.3 and 0.6 pc in the plane of the sky), trailing their motion through space. The other detected star, R Peg, displays a peculiar "horseshoe-shaped" HI morphology with emission extended on scales up to ~1.7 pc; in this case, the circumstellar debris may have been distorted by transverse flows in the local interstellar medium. We briefly discuss our new results in the context of the entire sample of evolved stars that has been imaged in HI to date.Comment: Accepted to AJ. A version with full resolution figures is available at http://www.haystack.mit.edu/hay/staff/lmatthew/matthews_HI_survey.pd

HI Observations of the Asymptotic Giant Branch Star X Herculis: Discovery of an Extended Circumstellar Wake Superposed on a Compact High-Velocity Cloud

We report HI 21-cm line observations of the AGB star X Her obtained with the Green Bank Telescope (GBT) and the Very Large Array (VLA). We have detected HI emission totaling M_HI=2.1e-03 M_sun associated with the circumstellar envelope of the star. The HI distribution exhibits a head-tail morphology, similar to those previously observed around Mira and RS Cnc. The tail extends ~6.0' (0.24 pc) in the plane of the sky, along the direction of the star's space motion. We also detect a velocity gradient of ~6.5 km/s across the envelope, consistent with the HI tracing a turbulent wake that arises from the motion of a mass-losing star through the ISM. GBT mapping of a 2x2deg region around X Her reveals that the star lies (in projection) near the periphery of a much larger HI cloud that also exhibits signatures of ISM interaction. The properties of the cloud are consistent with those of compact high-velocity clouds. Using CO observations, we have placed an upper limit on its molecular gas content of N_H2<1.3e20 cm^-2. Although the distance to the cloud is poorly constrained, the probability of a chance coincidence in position, velocity, and apparent position angle of space motion between X Her and the cloud is extremely small, suggesting a possible physical association. However, the large HI mass of the cloud (~>2.4~M_sun) and the blueshift of its mean velocity relative to X Her are inconsistent with an origin tied directly to stellar ejection. (abridged)Comment: Accepted to AJ; 47 pages, 15 figures; version with full resolution figures available at http://www.haystack.mit.edu/hay/staff/lmatthew/matthews_XHer.pd

On-demand or Spot? Selling the cloud to risk-averse customers

In Amazon EC2, cloud resources are sold through a combination of an on-demand market, in which customers buy resources at a fixed price, and a spot market, in which customers bid for an uncertain supply of excess resources. Standard market environments suggest that an optimal design uses just one type of market. We show the prevalence of a dual market system can be explained by heterogeneous risk attitudes of customers. In our stylized model, we consider unit demand risk-averse bidders. We show the model admits a unique equilibrium, with higher revenue and higher welfare than using only spot markets. Furthermore, as risk aversion increases, the usage of the on-demand market increases. We conclude that risk attitudes are an important factor in cloud resource allocation and should be incorporated into models of cloud markets.Comment: Appeared at WINE 201

CO and HI observations of an enigmatic cloud

An isolated HI cloud with peculiar properties has recently been discovered by Dedes, Dedes, & Kalberla (2008, A&A, 491, L45) with the 300-m Arecibo telescope, and subsequently imaged with the VLA. It has an angular size of ~6', and the HI emission has a narrow line profile of width ~ 3 km/s. We explore the possibility that this cloud could be associated with a circumstellar envelope ejected by an evolved star. Observations were made in the rotational lines of CO with the IRAM-30m telescope, on three positions in the cloud, and a total-power mapping in the HI line was obtained with the Nancay Radio Telescope. CO was not detected and seems too underabundant in this cloud to be a classical late-type star circumstellar envelope. On the other hand, the HI emission is compatible with the detached-shell model that we developed for representing the external environments of AGB stars. We propose that this cloud could be a fossil circumstellar shell left over from a system that is now in a post-planetary-nebula phase. Nevertheless, we cannot rule out that it is a Galactic cloud or a member of the Local Group, although the narrow line profile would be atypical in both cases.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Circumstellar HI and CO around the carbon stars V1942 Sgr and V CrB

Context. The majority of stars that leave the main sequence are undergoing extensive mass loss, in particular during the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) phase of evolution. Observations show that the rate at which this phenomenon develops differs highly from source to source, so that the time-integrated mass loss as a function of the initial conditions (mass, metallicity, etc.) and of the stage of evolution is presently not well understood. Aims. We are investigating the mass loss history of AGB stars by observing the molecular and atomic emissions of their circumstellar envelopes. Methods. In this work we have selected two stars that are on the thermally pulsing phase of the AGB (TP-AGB) and for which high quality data in the CO rotation lines and in the atomic hydrogen line at 21 cm could be obained. Results. V1942 Sgr, a carbon star of the Irregular variability type, shows a complex CO line profile that may originate from a long-lived wind at a rate of ~ 10^-7 Msol/yr, and from a young (< 10^4 years) fast outflow at a rate of ~ 5 10^-7 Msol/yr. Intense HI emission indicates a detached shell with 0.044 Msol of hydrogen. This shell probably results from the slowing-down, by surrounding matter, of the same long-lived wind observed in CO that has been active during ~ 6 10^5 years. On the other hand, the carbon Mira V CrB is presently undergoing mass loss at a rate of 2 10^-7 Msol/yr, but was not detected in HI. The wind is mostly molecular, and was active for at most 3 10^4 years, with an integrated mass loss of at most 6.5 10^-3 Msol. Conclusions. Although both sources are carbon stars on the TP-AGB, they appear to develop mass loss under very different conditions, and a high rate of mass loss may not imply a high integrated mass loss.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astron. Astrophy

Interferometric Mapping of Magnetic fields: NGC2071IR

We present polarization maps of NGC2071IR from thermal dust emission at 1.3 mm and from CO J=$2 \to 1$ line emission. The observations were obtained using the Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland Association array in the period 2002-2004. We detected dust and line polarized emission from NGC2071IR that we used to constrain the morphology of the magnetic field. From CO J=$2 \to 1$ polarized emission we found evidence for a magnetic field in the powerful bipolar outflow present in this region. We calculated a visual extinction $A_{\rm{v}} \approx 26$ mag from our dust observations. This result, when compared with early single dish work, seems to show that dust grains emit polarized radiation efficiently at higher densities than previously thought. Mechanical alignment by the outflow is proposed to explain the polarization pattern observed in NGC2071IR, which is consistent with the observed flattening in this source.Comment: 17 pages, 4 Figures, Accepted for publication in Ap