Comparison of the estimated incidence of acute leptospirosis in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania between 2007-08 and 2012-14

Background: The sole report of annual leptospirosis incidence in continental Africa of 75–102 cases per 100,000 population is from a study performed in August 2007 through September 2008 in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania. To evaluate the stability of this estimate over time, we estimated the incidence of acute leptospirosis in Kilimanjaro Region, northern Tanzania for the time period 2012–2014. Methodology and Principal Findings: Leptospirosis cases were identified among febrile patients at two sentinel hospitals in the Kilimanjaro Region. Leptospirosis was diagnosed by serum microscopic agglutination testing using a panel of 20 Leptospira serovars belonging to 17 separate serogroups. Serum was taken at enrolment and patients were asked to return 4–6 weeks later to provide convalescent serum. Confirmed cases required a 4-fold rise in titre and probable cases required a single titre of ≥800. Findings from a healthcare utilisation survey were used to estimate multipliers to adjust for cases not seen at sentinel hospitals. We identified 19 (1.7%) confirmed or probable cases among 1,115 patients who presented with a febrile illness. Of cases, the predominant reactive serogroups were Australis 8 (42.1%), Sejroe 3 (15.8%), Grippotyphosa 2 (10.5%), Icterohaemorrhagiae 2 (10.5%), Pyrogenes 2 (10.5%), Djasiman 1 (5.3%), Tarassovi 1 (5.3%). We estimated that the annual incidence of leptospirosis was 11–18 cases per 100,000 population. This was a significantly lower incidence than 2007–08 (p<0.001). Conclusions: We estimated a much lower incidence of acute leptospirosis than previously, with a notable absence of cases due to the previously predominant serogroup Mini. Our findings indicate a dynamic epidemiology of leptospirosis in this area and highlight the value of multi-year surveillance to understand leptospirosis epidemiology

Investigating the Mechanisms of Hallucinogen-Induced Visions Using 3,4-Methylenedioxyamphetamine (MDA): A Randomized Controlled Trial in Humans

The mechanisms of drug-induced visions are poorly understood. Very few serotonergic hallucinogens have been studied in humans in decades, despite widespread use of these drugs and potential relevance of their mechanisms to hallucinations occurring in psychiatric and neurological disorders.We investigated the mechanisms of hallucinogen-induced visions by measuring the visual and perceptual effects of the hallucinogenic serotonin 5-HT2AR receptor agonist and monoamine releaser, 3,4-methylenedioxyamphetamine (MDA), in a double-blind placebo-controlled study. We found that MDA increased self-report measures of mystical-type experience and other hallucinogen-like effects, including reported visual alterations. MDA produced a significant increase in closed-eye visions (CEVs), with considerable individual variation. Magnitude of CEVs after MDA was associated with lower performance on measures of contour integration and object recognition.Drug-induced visions may have greater intensity in people with poor sensory or perceptual processing, suggesting common mechanisms with other hallucinatory syndromes. MDA is a potential tool to investigate mystical experiences and visual perception

Risk factors for human acute leptospirosis in northern Tanzania

Introduction: Leptospirosis is a major cause of febrile illness in Africa but little is known about risk factors for human infection. We conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate risk factors for acute leptospirosis and Leptospira seropositivity among patients with fever attending referral hospitals in northern Tanzania. Methods: We enrolled patients with fever from two referral hospitals in Moshi, Tanzania, 2012–2014, and performed Leptospira microscopic agglutination testing on acute and convalescent serum. Cases of acute leptospirosis were participants with a four-fold rise in antibody titers, or a single reciprocal titer ≥800. Seropositive participants required a single titer ≥100, and controls had titers <100 in both acute and convalescent samples. We administered a questionnaire to assess risk behaviors over the preceding 30 days. We created cumulative scales of exposure to livestock urine, rodents, and surface water, and calculated odds ratios (OR) for individual behaviors and for cumulative exposure variables. Results: We identified 24 acute cases, 252 seropositive participants, and 592 controls. Rice farming (OR 14.6), cleaning cattle waste (OR 4.3), feeding cattle (OR 3.9), farm work (OR 3.3), and an increasing cattle urine exposure score (OR 1.2 per point) were associated with acute leptospirosis. Conclusions: In our population, exposure to cattle and rice farming were risk factors for acute leptospirosis. Although further data is needed, these results suggest that cattle may be an important source of human leptospirosis. Further investigation is needed to explore the potential for control of livestock Leptospira infection to reduce human disease

Realising transition pathways for a more electric, low-carbon energy system in the United Kingdom: challenges, insights and opportunities

The United Kingdom has placed itself on a transition towards a low-carbon economy and society, through the imposition of a legally-binding goal aimed at reducing its ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions by 80% by 2050 against a 1990 baseline. A set of three low-carbon, socio-technical transition pathways were developed and analysed via an innovative collaboration between engineers, social scientists and policy analysts. The pathways focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing use of low-carbon electricity for heating and transport, within the context of critical European Union developments and policies. Their development started from narrative storylines regarding different governance framings, drawing on interviews and workshops with stakeholders and analysis of historical analogies. The quantified UK pathways were named Market Rules, Central Co-ordination and Thousand Flowers; each reflecting a dominant logic of governance arrangements. The aim of the present contribution was to use these pathways to explore what is needed to realise a transition that successfully addresses the so-called energy policy ‘trilemma,’ i.e. the simultaneous delivery of low carbon, secure and affordable energy services. Analytical tools were developed and applied to assess the technical feasibility,social acceptability, and environmental and economic impacts of the pathways. Technological and behavioural developments were examined, alongside appropriate governance structures and regulations for these low-carbon transition pathways, as well as the roles of key energy system ‘actors’ (both large and small). An assessment of the part that could possibly be played by future demand side response was also undertaken in order to understand the factors that drive energy demand and energy-using behaviour, and reflecting growing interest in demand side response for balancing a system with high proportions of renewable generation. A set of interacting and complementary engineering and technoeconomic models or tools were then employed to analyse electricity network infrastructure investment and operational decisions to assist market design and option evaluation. This provided a basis for integrating the analysis within a whole systems framework of electricity system development, together with the evaluation of future economic benefits, costs and uncertainties. Finally, the energy and environmental performance of the different energy mixes were appraised on a‘life-cycle’ basis to determine the greenhouse gas emissions and other ecological or health burdens associated with each of the three transition pathways. Here, the challenges, insights and opportunities that have been identified over the transition towards a low-carbon future in the United Kingdom are described with the purpose of providing a valuable evidence base for developers, policy makers and other stakeholders

Knowledge-based design of bimodular and trimodular polyketide synthases based on domain and module swaps: a route to simple statin analogues

AbstractBackground: Polyketides are structurally diverse natural products that have a range of medically useful activities. Nonaromatic bacterial polyketides are synthesised on modular polyketide synthase (PKS) multienzymes, in which each cycle of chain extension requires a different ‘module’ of enzymatic activities. Attempts to design and construct modular PKSs that synthesise specified novel polyketides provide a particularly stringent test of our understanding of PKS structure and function.Results: We have constructed bimodular and trimodular PKSs based on DEBS1-TE, a derivative of the erythromycin PKS that contains only modules 1 and 2 and a thioesterase (TE), by substituting multiple domains with appropriate counterparts derived from the rapamycin PKS. Hybrid PKSs were obtained that synthesised the predicted target triketide lactones, which are simple analogues of cholesterol-lowering statins. In constructing intermodular fusions, whether between modules in the same or in different proteins, it was found advantageous to preserve intact the acyl carrier protein-ketosynthase (ACP-KS) didomain that spans the junction between successive modules.Conclusions: Relatively simple considerations govern the construction of functional hybrid PKSs. Fusion sites should be chosen either in the surface-accessible linker regions between enzymatic domains, as previously revealed, or just inside the conserved margins of domains. The interaction of an ACP domain with the adjacent KS domain, whether on the same polyketide or not, is of particular importance, both through conservation of appropriate protein-protein interactions, and through optimising molecular recognition of the altered polyketide chain in the key transfer of the acyl chain from the ACP of one module to the KS of the downstream module

Reconciling qualitative storylines and quantitative descriptions: an iterative approach

Energy system transition research has been experimenting with the integration of qualitative and quantitative analysis due to the increased articulation it provides. Current approaches tend to be heavily biased by qualitative or quantitative methodologies, and more often are aimed toward a single academic discipline. This paper proposes an interdisciplinary methodology for the elaboration of energy system socio-technical scenarios, applied here to the low carbon transition of the UK. An iterative approach was used to produce quantitative descriptions of the UK's energy transition out to 2050, building on qualitative storylines or narratives that had been developed through the formal application of a transition pathways approach. The combination of the qualitative and quantitative analysis in this way subsequently formed the cornerstone of wider interdisciplinary research, helping to harmonise assumptions, and facilitating ‘whole systems’ thinking. The methodology pulls on niche expertise of contributors to map and investigate the governance and technological landscape of a system change. Initial inconsistencies were found between energy supply and demand and addressed, the treatment of gas generation, capacity factors, total installed generating capacity and installation rates of renewables employed. Knowledge gaps relating to the operation of combined heat and power, sources of waste heat and future fuel sources were also investigated. Adopting the methodological approach to integrate qualitative and quantitative analysis resulted in a far more comprehensive elaboration than previously, providing a stronger basis for wider research, and for deducing more robust insights for decision-making. It is asserted that this formal process helps build robust future scenarios not only for socio political storylines but also for the quantification of any qualitative storyline

Gravitational collapse in 2+1 dimensional AdS spacetime

We present results of numerical simulations of the formation of black holes from the gravitational collapse of a massless, minimally-coupled scalar field in 2+1 dimensional, axially-symmetric, anti de-Sitter (AdS) spacetime. The geometry exterior to the event horizon approaches the BTZ solution, showing no evidence of scalar `hair'. To study the interior structure we implement a variant of black-hole excision, which we call singularity excision. We find that interior to the event horizon a strong, spacelike curvature singularity develops. We study the critical behavior at the threshold of black hole formation, and find a continuously self-similar solution and corresponding mass-scaling exponent of approximately 1.2. The critical solution is universal to within a phase that is related to the angle deficit of the spacetime.Comment: 31 pages, 20 figures, LaTeX. Replaced with version to be published in Phys. Rev.

Estimating acute human leptospirosis incidence in northern Tanzania using sentinel site and community behavioural surveillance

Many infectious diseases lack robust estimates of incidence from endemic areas, and extrapolating incidence when there are few locations with data remains a major challenge in burden of disease estimation. We sought to combine sentinel surveillance with community behavioural surveillance to estimate leptospirosis incidence. We administered a questionnaire gathering responses on established locally relevant leptospirosis risk factors and recent fever to livestock‐owning community members across six districts in northern Tanzania and applied a logistic regression model predicting leptospirosis risk on the basis of behavioural factors that had been previously developed among patients with fever in Moshi Municipal and Moshi Rural Districts. We aggregated probability of leptospirosis by district and estimated incidence in each district by standardizing probabilities to those previously estimated for Moshi Districts. We recruited 286 community participants: Hai District (n = 11), Longido District (59), Monduli District (56), Moshi Municipal District (103), Moshi Rural District (44) and Rombo District (13). The mean predicted probability of leptospirosis by district was Hai 0.029 (0.005, 0.095), Longido 0.071 (0.009, 0.235), Monduli 0.055 (0.009, 0.206), Moshi Rural 0.014 (0.002, 0.049), Moshi Municipal 0.015 (0.004, 0.048) and Rombo 0.031 (0.006, 0.121). We estimated the annual incidence (upper and lower bounds of estimate) per 100,000 people of human leptospirosis among livestock owners by district as Hai 35 (6, 114), Longido 85 (11, 282), Monduli 66 (11, 247), Moshi Rural 17 (2, 59), Moshi Municipal 18 (5, 58) and Rombo 47 (7, 145). Use of community behavioural surveillance may be a useful tool for extrapolating disease incidence beyond sentinel surveillance sites

Crop Updates 2006 - Oilseeds

This session covers thirteen papers from different authors: 1. INTRODUCTION, Graham Walton, CONVENOR, Department of Agriculture 2. The performance of new TT canola varieties in National Variety Testing (NVT) WA, Fiona Martin, Research Agronomist, Agritech Crop Research 3. Comparison of TT Canola Varieties in Oilseeds WA Trials – 2005, Collated by G.H. Walton, Department of Agriculture, WA, from a collaboration between Oilseeds WA, Seed Companies, Agronomists and Growers 4. An overview of the potential for a Biofuels Industry in Western Australia, Anne Wilkins and Nathan Hancock, Department of Agriculture 5. Retrieval of fertile progeny from interspecific crosses between Brassica napus and B. carinata using microspore culture, Matthew Nelson, Marie-Claire Castello, Linda Thomson, Anouska Cousin, Guijun Yan and Wallace Cowling; School of Plant Biology (M084), The University of Western Australia 6. Advances in canola blackleg epidemiology and its implication in understanding and managing the disease, Moin Salam, Bill MacLeod, Ravjit Khangura, Jean Galloway and Art Diggle, Department of Agriculture 7. Effect of fertiliser phosphorus and nitrogen on grain yields and concentration of oil and protein of canola grain, R.F. Brennan, M.D.A. Bolland, Department of Agriculture 8. Effect of applying fertiliser potassium and nitrogen on canola grain yields and concentration of oil and protein in grain, R.F. Brennan, M.D.A. Bolland, Department of Agriculture 9. Effect of fertiliser nitrogen and sulfer on canola yields and concentration of oil in grain, R.F. Brennan, M.D.A. Bolland, Department of Agriculture 10. Uptake of K from topsoil and subsoil by canola, P.M. Damon and Z. Rengel, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, The University of WA 11. Accumulation of P and K by canola plants, Terry Rose, Zed Rengel and Qifu Ma, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, The University of WA 12. Varied response from applying nitrogen at late flowering in canola! Dave Eksteen, Agronomist, United Farmers Cooperative 13. To investigate the timing, rate and placement of nitrogen on canola – Jerdacuttup 2005, Dave Eksteen, Agronomist, United Farmers Cooperativ

Vacuum Instabilities with a Wrong-Sign Higgs-Gluon-Gluon Amplitude

The recently discovered 125 GeV boson appears very similar to a Standard Model Higgs, but with data favoring an enhanced h to gamma gamma rate. A number of groups have found that fits would allow (or, less so after the latest updates, prefer) that the h-t-tbar coupling have the opposite sign. This can be given meaning in the context of an electroweak chiral Lagrangian, but it might also be interpreted to mean that a new colored and charged particle runs in loops and produces the opposite-sign hGG amplitude to that generated by integrating out the top, as well as a contribution reinforcing the W-loop contribution to hFF. In order to not suppress the rate of h to WW and h to ZZ, which appear to be approximately Standard Model-like, one would need the loop to "overshoot," not only canceling the top contribution but producing an opposite-sign hGG vertex of about the same magnitude as that in the SM. We argue that most such explanations have severe problems with fine-tuning and, more importantly, vacuum stability. In particular, the case of stop loops producing an opposite-sign hGG vertex of the same size as the Standard Model one is ruled out by a combination of vacuum decay bounds and LEP constraints. We also show that scenarios with a sign flip from loops of color octet charged scalars or new fermionic states are highly constrained.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures; v2: references adde