Adaptive Bound Optimization for Online Convex Optimization

We introduce a new online convex optimization algorithm that adaptively chooses its regularization function based on the loss functions observed so far. This is in contrast to previous algorithms that use a fixed regularization function such as L2-squared, and modify it only via a single time-dependent parameter. Our algorithm's regret bounds are worst-case optimal, and for certain realistic classes of loss functions they are much better than existing bounds. These bounds are problem-dependent, which means they can exploit the structure of the actual problem instance. Critically, however, our algorithm does not need to know this structure in advance. Rather, we prove competitive guarantees that show the algorithm provides a bound within a constant factor of the best possible bound (of a certain functional form) in hindsight.Comment: Updates to match final COLT versio

The Impact of Motivational Factors on Daily Fantasy Sports Participation

Since the passing of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Act (UIGEA) in 2006, the fantasy sports world has had a tumultuous decade. Shortly after the passing of UIGEA, daily fantasy sports became marketable, and saw several years of tremendous growth. However, recent legal issues have clouded the industry, and lawmakers have questioned whether daily fantasy sports indeed fall under the exception granted by UIGEA as a “game of skill”, or whether the games are illegal gambling. This study is meant to look at what motivates fantasy sports participants, especially through this time of turmoil in the industry. It specifically looks at how players’ competitive, knowledge-seeking, or social tendencies affect their participation habits. Additionally, this thesis explores the effect that marketing messaging that portrays a daily fantasy sports website as a perfect place to satisfy these individual traits has on player participation. Finally, this study investigates the role that a sense of fairness plays in shaping players’ perceptions of these websites. To study these things, we began by looking at previous studies that focus on competition, knowledge, and social factors, both in the fantasy sports field and elsewhere, and creating a literature review. Following the literature review, an experiment was created, which tested these three scales as well as the perception of fairness, using a fictitious fantasy sports site, Fantasyland. The results obtained from this experiment indicate that those with competitive or social dispositions are the most likely to try fantasy sports. Additionally, it was found that those who are socially motivated are more likely to recommend a fantasy sports site to friends or strangers. Lastly, the perception of fairness did not have a direct effect of participants, although in one case, it did positively impact an individual’s willingness to try a daily sports website. These results and their implications as well as future research directions are outlined in the concluding discussion section

Improving Task-Parameterised Movement Learning Generalisation with Frame-Weighted Trajectory Generation

Learning from Demonstration depends on a robot learner generalising its learned model to unseen conditions, as it is not feasible for a person to provide a demonstration set that accounts for all possible variations in non-trivial tasks. While there are many learning methods that can handle interpolation of observed data effectively, extrapolation from observed data offers a much greater challenge. To address this problem of generalisation, this paper proposes a modified Task-Parameterised Gaussian Mixture Regression method that considers the relevance of task parameters during trajectory generation, as determined by variance in the data. The benefits of the proposed method are first explored using a simulated reaching task data set. Here it is shown that the proposed method offers far-reaching, low-error extrapolation abilities that are different in nature to existing learning methods. Data collected from novice users for a real-world manipulation task is then considered, where it is shown that the proposed method is able to effectively reduce grasping performance errors by ${\sim30\%}$ and extrapolate to unseen grasp targets under real-world conditions. These results indicate the proposed method serves to benefit novice users by placing less reliance on the user to provide high quality demonstration data sets.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, submitted to 2019 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems (IROS

Court Decisions and Equity Markets: Estimating the Value of Copyright Protection

We use a novel database on U. S. federal court decisions to measure the changes in the state of copyright protection in both statute and case law. We combine an index of copyright breadth derived from this database with a quarterly panel of firms in creative industries over the years 1986-1998. Using this data, we measure the impact of changes in the breadth of copyright on the market valuation of firm equity. We maintain the assumption that equity markets will incorporate the value of copyright innovations into the price of equity. After controlling for a variety of fundamental determinants of ¯rm-level excess returns to equity, we find that a court case broadening copyright is associated with a statistically significant 23-45 basis points increase in a firm's excess return. Our results obtain across both 4-5 year sub-samples and the size distribution of firms.

Assessing village food needs following a natural disaster in Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea is vulnerable to natural disasters, including drought and frost associated with El Niño weather events and excessive rainfall associated with La Niña events. Drought, frost and excessive rainfall can cause major disruptions to village food supplies. Drought also reduces villagers’ access to clean drinking water, which in turn has a negative impact on peoples’ health and the capacity of schools and hospitals to operate. There are often other impacts — damage to crops and property by wildfires, out-migration and an increased death rate. In 1997–98, and again in 2015–16, a major El Niño event caused significant disruption to drinking water and food supply for many Papua New Guinean villagers. Staff of many agencies, including those working through the Church Partnership Program El Niño Drought Response Program, were involved in assessing the impact and providing relief in 2015–16. This publication brings together the experiences of those working on the Church Partnership Program response to the 2015–16 El Niño event and serves as a guide for assessing future food shortages and to help those in need.Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT

Quantitative estimates of fish abundance from boat electrofishing

Multiple removals by boat electro-fishing were used to estimate fish populations in non-wadeable habitats in New Zealand lakes and rivers. Mean capture probability was 0.47±h0.10 (± 95% CI) from 35 population estimates made with 2-7 successive removals. The relationship between the population estimate from the Zippin method (Y)and the number of fish caught in the first removal (X) was significant (adjusted r2=0.84, P<0.001; Figure 2). The least-squares regression was Y = 1.55X 1.23. Mean density ± 95% confidence interval for 13 fishing occasions was 30±27 fish 100 m- 2. Mean biomass of fish for sites was 78±39 g m-2 (range 29 to 245 g m-2). Koi carp comprised the largest proportion of the fish biomass wherever they were present. The high biomasses of koi carp estimated in these results (mean 56±33 g m-2) suggest that they can reach problematic abundances in New Zealand. Bioniass of spawning koi carp can exceed 400 g m-2

A Simple and Approximately Optimal Mechanism for an Additive Buyer

We consider a monopolist seller with $n$ heterogeneous items, facing a single buyer. The buyer has a value for each item drawn independently according to (non-identical) distributions, and her value for a set of items is additive. The seller aims to maximize his revenue. We suggest using the a-priori better of two simple pricing methods: selling the items separately, each at its optimal price, and bundling together, in which the entire set of items is sold as one bundle at its optimal price. We show that for any distribution, this mechanism achieves a constant-factor approximation to the optimal revenue. Beyond its simplicity, this is the first computationally tractable mechanism to obtain a constant-factor approximation for this multi-parameter problem. We additionally discuss extensions to multiple buyers and to valuations that are correlated across items

Fluorescence spectroscopy for the characterization of total organic carbon and disinfection by-product formation

One of the concerns facing the drinking water industry is the formation of disinfection by-products (DBPs) during the disinfection stage of treatment. Organic DBPs form during the oxidation of the natural organic matter (NOM) found in natural waters by the application of a disinfectant, such as chlorine. NOM is composed of two aggregate materials, humic and non-humic substances. It is unknown which portions of NOM react with the oxidant to form DBPs. Methods used to predict the formation of DBPs include total organic carbon (TOC) analysis and Trihalomethane Formation Potential (THMFP), which are time consuming and do not give specific information. This research explored the use of fluorescence spectroscopy to identify the humic portion of NOM and to predict the formation of DBPs

Kant and the Significance of Self-Consciousness

Human beings who have mastered a natural language are self-conscious creatures: they can think, and indeed speak, about themselves in the first person. This dissertation is about the significance of this capacity: what it is and what difference it makes to our minds. My thesis is that the capacity for self-consciousness is essential to rationality, the thing that sets the minds of rational creatures apart from those of mere brutes. This, I argue, is what Kant was getting at in a famous passage of his Critique of Pure Reason, when he claimed that a representation which could not be "accompanied with the 'I think'" would be "nothing to me" as a thinking being. I call this claim the Kantian thesis. My dissertation seeks to explain and defend the Kantian thesis, to show how it entails that the advent of self-consciousness brings with it a new kind of mind, and to sketch the implications of this point for a philosophy of mind that seeks to understand the minds of rational creatures. This involves, on the one hand, an investigation of the kinds of capacities that characterize a rational creature, and, on the other hand, an argument connecting reason with self-consciousness. I show that a rational creature, in the interesting sense, is one capable of conceptual representation, and I argue that (1) to represent conceptually is to represent in a way that decouples information from any particular context or purpose, (2) this special form of representation is possible only in a creature that can reflect explicitly on grounds for judging a proposition true, and (3) to have this capacity to reflect explicitly on grounds is necessarily to have the crux of self-consciousness. If this is right, then the representations of a rational creature must differ from those of a nonrational creature not merely in complexity but in kind. The dissertation sketches the implications of this point for various forms of naturalism and reductionism in the philosophy of mind, for debates about how to explain "first person authority," and for our understanding of the sort of failure of self-consciousness involved in self-deception