Land-cover change: threats to the grassland biome of South Africa

The Grassland biome of South Africa has been identified as critically endangered and the biome in South Africa most requiring conservation attention through the implementation of efficient, sustainable systematic conservation plans. The ability to predict where land-cover transformation as well as information on the occurrence and severity of current land cover transformation activities, as threats to biodiversity, is required as part of the systematic conservation planning process. Neke & du Plessis (2004) predicted land cover transformation and the severity of the impact on biodiversity in the Grassland biome. This model was based on potential land use suitability models and land cover information for the 1994/5 season extracted from the National Land Cover database (NLC1994). These predictions were tested by assessing actual land cover change in the Grassland biome using observed differences in grassland land cover between the NLC1994 and NLC2000 databases. Methodology Because of differences in format and land-cover classification between the original datasets, both NLC1994 and NLC2000 had to be modified before any analyses could be carried out. These differences exist because different techniques were used to collate the respective datasets, thus introducing the potential for significant mapping error in the original datasets and more significantly erroneous results with respect to landcover change detection. The implications of this were presented in the discussion. Both datasets were spatially resampled and class-standardised and it was felt that this would significantly reduce any the impact of any such existing errords in the original datasets. Thereafter landcover information for the Grassland biome was be extracted and the comparative landcover analyses executed. The analyses carried out included: • Landcover change per landcover class within the Grassland biome with emphasis on the Grassland landclass losses and gains • An assessment and comparison of the relative fragmentation of the remaining grassland patches in both datasets • An assessment of current grassland habitat degradation • The comparison of the predicted land cover change as given by Neke & du Plessis (2004) against the observed grassland changes • The creation of a new Grassland Transformation threat map reflecting current land cover change threats, and including information pertaining to the threats to Grassland biodiversity posed by invasive alien plants, road effects, urban areas and soil erosion hazards. Results and Discussion 25% of the remaining grassland patches underwent transformation to other land classes. Grassland clearing for cultivation, bush encroachment and bushland vegetation regeneration were the main causal factors behind the observed grassland losses. However, grassland vegetation regeneration on formerly cultivated land, bush clearing and reclassification of degraded lands as grasslands in the NLC2000 dataset contributed to a net 2% gain in area of the grassland land class. The remaining grassland patches are more fragmented than they were in NLC1994, the average patch size (NLC2000) is three times smaller and the total number of grassland patches has increased (also by a factor of 3) and the remaining grassland patches are more isolated. The largest, least fragmented grassland patches occur along and to the west of the Great Escarpment as it traverses the Grassland biome. Most of the predictions of grassland transformation were realised, however the model used by Neke & du Plessis (2004) consistently underestimated and in some cases failed to predict the occurrence of grassland transformation in the central interior of the Grassland biome. Current, measurable human activities that act as grassland transformation agents were incorporated to create a threat map showing the extent and severity of land-cover transformation activities within the biome; grassland bird species richness information was then incorporated into this map to create biodiversity transformation threat map. This map was used to show the location and severity of the impacts of human transformation activities on grassland biodiversity. Both transformation threat map reflect the current situation across the biome today and were compared against the Potential transformation threat map produced by Neke & du Plessis (2004). The human transformation threat map confirmed the inability of the Neke & du Plessis model to make correct predictions of land cover change away from the eastern, 7 high altitude boundary of the biome. Given that the biome is defined by its climatic characteristics, the incorporation of global climate change effects would further refine the results gained, and perhaps provide more accurate predictions. As aforementioned, there are however factors existing within the original datasets used in this analysis that may have affected the accuracy of the landcover change analyses. These factors are centred on the potential effects of mapping errors within either of the NLC datasets. The delineation of landclass boundaries in the NLC1994 dataset is one such factor- placing a line over what is in reality a gradient of changing vegetation, is a subjective exercise and depends entirely on the technician involved this in itself may have introduced a fair amount of error in the mapping process. When coupled with the automated classification techniques used, for the most part, for the NLC2000 dataset, it becomes apparent that it is highly unlikely that even in the absence of actual landcover change the same boundaries would be drawn between two landclasses in the same area. This would provide false positive results for landcover change where in fact this is as a result of mapping errors. This is acknowledged and included in the interpretation of the results and it is felt that in spite of this, all possible steps were taken to minimize the impact of these effects on the reslults. The analysis allowed the identification of the current land cover transformations leading to grassland loss. However, land-cover change is only the physical expression of the complex interactions between socio-economic factors. To create effective and sustainable conservation plan for the Grassland biome, with an aim to reducing habitat loss requires an action plan to address these factors as the ultimate drivers of land cover change

The spatio-temporal dynamics of woody biomass supply and demand in response to human utilisation in an African Savanna woodland

The thesis presents a thorough, in-depth study that fills some of the gaps in the knowledge of the impacts of woodland utilisation in communal areas. The chosen case study villages are in Bushbuckridge, a government gazetted Integrated Sustainable Rural Development programme node, making the results pertinent to sustainable energy policy reform in South Africa. A case-study of two villages was used to investigate the spatial and structural changes in fuelwood supply in response to fuelwood extraction as well as the changes in use-patterns over time. A survey of the structure and composition of the woody vegetation and wood harvesting patterns around the villages was conducted and compared against historical data, spanning 17 years. Total wood stock in the communal woodlands of both villages declined over the study period; the loss being greater in Welverdiend. Significant, negative change in the structure and species composition, particularly of species that are commonly harvested for fuelwood has occurred in Welverdiend but not in Athol. The absence of negative impacts in Athol implies that harvesting regimes here are more sustainable but it is more likely that this is due to the lower human population and lower fuelwood extraction pressure. The changes in woodland structure were linked to landcover change patterns that occurred in the villages over the last 44 years, from their creation through forced resettlements on old farms in the area. Landcover change patterns were similar in both villages since 1965 but there was significantly greater woodland loss in Welverdiend (48% woodland loss) in comparison to Athol (25% woodland loss). The systematic loss of woodland areas to agricultural fields was linked to expanding residential areas due to human population growth. Deforestation occurred where woodlands were already impacted through selective harvesting. The physical changes in woodland structure and landcover were linked to a detailed socio-economic analysis of the two villages, providing critically important data for the sustainable management of woodlands in South Africa. The impact of access to electricity on fuelwood consumption rates was carried out through analysis of the economic, time and opportunity costs of fuelwood collection, compared against the different fuelwood availability in each village. In Welverdiend demand for fuelwood has so far proved inelastic; households have adjusted their fuelwood collection regimes, going on fewer collection trips but spending longer times for each trip but ultimately household investment is similar to that in Athol. Fuelwood demand is maintained in Welverdiend by the availability of purchased fuelwood and harvesting in new sites. A model to predict the socio-economic factors at the household and per capita level which affect fuelwood consumption was developed. Revealing in the process that households with access to electricity used less fuelwood annually and the amounts of fuelwood used were influenced by the household perceptions of fuelwood scarcity in the village, Household population size had a direct bearing on the likelihood of households switching to electricity with every addition to the household size decreasing the likelihood of switching by 48%. This study has major implications for the government’s on-going rural electrification programme. Interventions are required that raise awareness about fuelwood availability trends, based on landscape developments and targeting women as the main users of fuelwood

Persons with physical disabilities' experiences of rehabilitation services at community health centres in Cape Town

Magister Scientiae (Physiotherapy) - MSc(Physio)According to the United Nations, more than half a billion people (about 650 million) worldwide are disabled. Disability can have a vast impact on both the individual and the family. Rehabilitation is therefore a fundamental need for the persons with disability to achieve functional independence and have an improved quality of life. To enhance the effectiveness of rehabilitation, it is important to seek clients perspectives of the rehabilitation services and to incorporate these perspectives into the planning and delivery of rehabilitation services. In areas where rehabilitation services are available in South Africa, minimal research has been done to explore the clients experiences regarding provision of these services. The aim of this study therefore was to explore the persons with physical disabilities experiences of the rehabilitation services they received at community health centres (CHCs) in the Cape Town Metro Health District. Data was collected using a mixed methods design in the form of a sequential exploratory strategy. Qualitative data collection was done using in-depth interviews and this was followed by administration of an interview questionnaire. The questionnaire was developed using results from the in-depth interviews together with information from literature. Ten persons with physical isabilities, who had received rehabilitation services at participated in the in-depth interviews and 95 responded to the interview questionnaire. The interviews were tape-recorded and transcribed verbatim and they were analysed using predetermined themes. The SPSS version 16.0 was used to analyse the quantitative data which was presented in frequencies, medians, quartiles and percentages. The results of the study revealed that the participants experienced problems with getting transport to travel to the community health centres and getting adequate information from the service providers particularly information regarding disability and support services available for them. Experiences regarding participants involvement in their rehabilitation were generally positive. Generally, the participants reported positive experiences regarding their interaction with service providers and family support and involvement and this study recommends the staff to maintain their standards regarding these two dimensions of rehabilitation. However most of the participants were not concerned about whether the service providers gave them an opportunity to express their preferences or not. The results indicate the need to improve transport services for persons with physical disabilities and to give them more information regarding support services. The service providers should also give the clients more opportunities to get involved in their rehabilitation and educate them about the benefits of them getting involved.South Afric

Extreme heat events, high ambient temperatures and human morbidity and mortality in Africa: A systematic review

Temperature extremes vary across Africa. A continent-wide examination of the impacts of heat on health in Africa, and a synthesis of Africa-informed evidence is, however, lacking. A systematic review of articles published in peer-reviewed journals between January 1992 and April 2019 was conducted. To be eligible, articles had to be Africa-specific, in English, and focused on how heatwaves and high ambient temperatures affect morbidity and mortality. A secondary systematic analysis on policies and interventions comprising 17 studies was also conducted, and the findings synthesised together with those of the 20 primary studies. Eleven studies showed that high ambient temperatures and heat waves are linked with increased mortality rates in Africa. These linkages are characterised by complex, linear and non-linear (J or U) relationships. Eight of the nine primary studies of morbidity outcome reported that an increase in temperature was accompanied by raised disease incidence. Children and the elderly were the population groups most vulnerable to extreme heat exposure. Location-specific interventions and policy suggestions include developing early warning systems, creating heat-health plans, changing housing conditions and implementing heat-health awareness campaigns. In summary, this review demonstrates that, while heat-health relationships in Africa are complex, extreme temperatures are associated with high mortality and morbidity, especially amongst vulnerable populations. As temperatures increase across Africa, there is an urgent need to develop heat-health plans and implement interventions. Future studies must document intervention effectiveness and quantify the costs of action and inaction on extreme heat-related mortality and morbidity. Significance: Empirical evidence shows that the relationship between heat and human health is complex in the African context. This complexity has implications for the development of interventions and policies for heathealth on the continent. This review is important for African policymakers, practitioners and others who support Africa’s adaptation to climate change. Through this review, a compendium of Africa-specific and relevant empirical information is aggregated and made readily available to various interested and affected parties

Calculations of non-adiabatic couplings within equation-of-motion coupled-cluster framework:Theory, implementation, and validation against multi-reference methods

We report an implementation of non-adiabatic coupling (NAC) forces within the equation-of-motion coupled-cluster with single and double excitations (EOM-CCSD) framework via the summed-state approach. Using illustrative examples, we compare NAC forces computed with EOM-CCSD and multi-reference (MR) wave functions (for selected cases, we also consider configuration interaction singles). In addition to the magnitude of the NAC vectors, we analyze their direction, which is important for the calculations of the rate of non-adiabatic transitions. Our benchmark set comprises three doublet radical-cations (hexatriene, cyclohexadiene, and uracil), neutral uracil, and sodium-doped ammonia clusters. When the characters of the states agree among different methods, we observe good agreement between the respective NAC vectors, both in the Franck-Condon region and away. In the cases of large discrepancies between the methods, the disagreement can be attributed to the difference in the states' character, which, in some cases, is very sensitive to electron correlation, both within single-reference and multi-reference frameworks. The numeric results confirm that the accuracy of NAC vectors depends critically on the quality of the underlying wave functions. Within their domain of applicability, EOM-CC methods provide a viable alternative to MR approaches

Mechanistic insights into photoinduced damage of DNA and RNA nucleobases in the gas phase and in bulk solution

The mechanistic details of well-known photohydrate lesions are explored using state-of-the-art computational methods.</p

Selection and ranking of the main beam geometry of a freight wagon for lightweighting

The traditional freight wagons employ I-beam sections as the main load-bearing structures. The primary loads they carry are vertical (from loading units) and axial (from train traction and buffers). Ease of manufacturing has played an important role in the selection of the I-beam for this role. However, with lightweighting increasingly becoming an important design objective, an evaluation needs to be done to assess if there are other existing or new section profiles (geometry) that would carry the same operational loads but are lighter. This paper presents an evaluation of 24 section profiles for their ability to take the operational loads of freight wagons. The profiles are divided into two categories, namely ‘conventional – made by wagon manufacturers (including the I-beam)’ and ‘pre-fabricated’ sections. For ranking purposes, the primary design objectives or key performance indicators were bending stress, associated deflection and buckling load. Subsequently, this was treated as a multi-criteria decision-making process. The loading conditions were applied as prescribed by the EU standard EN 12663-2. To carry out structural analysis, finite element analysis was implemented using ANSYS software. To determine the validity of the finite element analysis results, correlation analysis was done with respect to beam theory. Parameters considered were: maximum stress, deflection, second moment of area, thickness, bending stiffness and flexural rigidity. The paper discusses the impreciseness related to the use of beam theory since the local stiffness of the beam is neglected leading to an inaccurate estimation of the buckling load and the vertical displacement. Even more complicated can be the estimation of the maximum stress to be used for comparison when features such as spot welds are present. The nominal stress values computed by means of Navier equation lead to an inaccurate value of the stress since it neglects the variations in the local stiffness, which can lead to an increase in the bending stress values. The main objective of the paper is the applicability of particular section profiles to the railway field with the aim of lightweighting the main structure. Sections commonly adopted in civil applications have also been investigated to understand the stiffness and strength under railway service loads. The common approach reported in literature so far makes use either of the beam theory1 or topological finite element approach2 to determine the optimised shape under the action of the simplified loading conditions. Although the previous approaches seem to be more general, the assumptions made affect the optimisation process since the stress state differs from that attained under the actual service load in the real structure. In this paper, the use of complex shape cross sections and detailed finite element models allows to take account of the real behaviour in terms of stiffness distribution and local stress effects due to manufacturing features like welds. The structural assessment carried out with the detailed models also allows for the proper comparison among the considered sections. Analysis of the results showed that three out of the 24 section profiles have the highest potential to be fitted as the main load-bearing beams for freight wagons, with the pre-fabricated Z-section being the optimum of the three.Peer reviewe