Trade-off informed adaptive and robust real options water resources planning

Planning water resource systems is challenged primarily by two realities. First, uncertainty is inherent in the predictions of future supplies and demands due for example to hydrological variability and climate change. To build societal resilience water planners should seek to enhance the adaptability and robustness of water resource system interventions. Second, water resource developments typically involve competing interests which implies considering the trade-offs and synergies implied by the highest performing combinations of development options is useful. This work describes a real options based planning framework that generates adaptive and robust water system design alternatives able to consider and trade-off different goals. The framework can address different types of uncertainties and suggests the highest performing designs across multiple evaluation criteria, such as financial costs and water supply service performance metrics. Using a global city's water resource and supply system as a demonstration of the approach, we explore the trade-offs between a long-term water management plan's infrastructure services (service resilience, reliability, vulnerability) and its financial costs under supply and demand uncertainty. The set of trade-off solutions consist of different investment plans which are adaptive and robust to future changing conditions. Results show that the highest performing plans lower net present value (NPV) of needed investments by up to 18%, while maintaining similar performance across the other objectives. The real option value of delaying investments as much as possible approaches up to 14% of total NPV

Femtosecond pulse generation with a diode-pumped Yb3+:YVO4 laser

A diode-pumped Yb:YVO4 laser has been passively mode locked for the first time, to our knowledge. 120 fs pulses with an average output power of 300 mW and a peak power as high as 14.5 kW are obtained by use of a semiconductor saturable-absorber mirror for passive mode locking. The optical spectrum has a 10 nm bandwidth (full width at half-maximum) and is centered at 1021 nm

Anthropourgic Foci of Plague in Vietnam: Past and Present

The review contains the results of ecological-epizootiological and epidemiological investigations of plague in the territory of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam in 1989-2012. Studied has been the structure of epizootic triad - carrier-vector-pathogen. There is a low probability of plague foci occurrence in zones of tropical forests and savanna under the conditions of humid subequatorial climate. Main plague agent carrier on the Thai Nguyen Plateau is the synanthropic little rat, Rattus exulans . Specialized fleas species are absent on wild-living rats Rattus genus, as well as mice, and bandicoots, and the abundance of other species is small. It has been demonstrated that all the elements of the parasitic plague system are classified as introduced species. Thereupon it is inferred that plague foci in Vietnam are anthropourgic and are of anthropogenic origin solely. Plague cases in humans across the territory of the country were registered between 1898 and 2002. The most persistent ones functioned on the Thai Nguyen Plateau. Although epizootic activity of the foci in territory of the former endemic provinces has decreased, it is necessary to continue epizootiological monitoring further on in the modern period

Role of Mosquitoes, <I>Culex</I> <I>pipiens</I> Complex, in West Nile Fever Virus Persistence in Urbanized Biocoenoses of Saratov

. In wiggler samples as well as in imago ones detected are WNF virus markers, which indicate the possibility of transovarial and trans-phase transmission of virus into mosquito populations, habitant in urbanized biocoenoses. It is substantiated that Culex pipiens female mosquitoes, which reproduce autogenically, provide for the persistence of the virus within the inter-epidemic period. Therewith there is a possibility of sustained, epidemically-active WNF micro-foci to be formed in the residential area landscapes, and this issue should be given proper consideration when performing assessment of the risks associated with urban population exposure to the infection

Studies of West Nile Virus Circulation in the Territory of the Saratov Region in 2010

Presented are the results of ecological and epizootiological surveillance of the territory of the Saratov region, which was carried out in autumn of 2010. The surveillance was aimed at detection of West Nile (WN) virus circulation and premises for WN Fever natural focus formation. It is demonstrated that in 2010 WN virus circulation took place in damp biotopes of the Saratov region territory, and that common species of small mammals were involved in it. Presented are the results of analysis of the WN virus role in the infectious pathology in the territory of the Saratov region

Non-Specific Prophylaxis of Plague in the Gorno-Altai High-Mountain Natural Focus in 2016

Objective of the study is to substantiate performance, assess the conditions, and analyze the results of activities on non-specific plague prophylaxis in the epizootic territory. Materials and methods. Utilized were archival data and operational reports of Altai Plague Control Station, Irkutsk RAPI, RusRAPI “Microbe”, Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology in the Republic of Altai, and Rospotrebnadzor Administration in the Republic of Altai, as well as literature sources. Spatial analysis was carried out using GIS-technologies. Results and conclusions. Concerted and coordinated activities of the Rospotrebnadzor institutions, medical and veterinary institutions, local executive authorities have allowed for complex prophylactic and anti-epidemic measures on prevention of plague dissemination and transmission in the territory of the Republic of Altai in 2016. Demonstrated has been the necessity to expand the scope and scale of operations and scientific research in the focus, deploying advanced toolkit of methods and means

Противоэпидемическая эффективность санитарно -просветительской работы с контингентами риска заражения чумой в Горно-Алтайском высокогорном природном очаге чумы

Objective is to reduce the risk of infection of people with plague in the territory of a natural focus on the basis of the targeted public health educational work with risk groups.Materials and methods. In 2017, 30 visits were made by epidemiological groups to livestock farms in the epizootic zone to inform the population about the existing risks of plague infection and to conduct interviews to assess the level of alertness regarding the risk of the disease. Work was carried out with risk contingents with coverage of 1652 people (81% of the total number of people living in livestock camps).Results. It was found that 64% of the respondents knew about the danger of plague infection in the region. 91% are aware of the role of marmots in infecting people with plague. 96.3% of respondents are aware of the ban on hunting groundhogs, while 39% continue to prey upon the grey (Altai) groundhog. The identified gaps in the population’s alertness regarding the risk of plague infection were eliminated through active sanitary and educational work with the population.Conclusion. Direct work with the population, anti-epidemic groups, significantly affected the provision of epidemiological welfare as regards plague, which is confirmed by the absence of human plague cases in the natural focus in 2017-2019. Цель – снижение риска заражения людей чумой на территории природного очага на основе кампании целенаправленной санитарно-просветительской работы с контингентами риска.Материалы и методы. В 2017 г. было осуществлено 30 выездов эпидемиологических групп на стоянки животноводов в зоне эпизоотии для информирования населения о существующих рисках заражения чумой и анкетирования с целью оценки уровня настороженности в отношении риска заболевания. Проведена работа с контингентами риска с охватом в 1652 человека (81% от общего количества людей, проживающих на животноводческих стоянках).Результаты. В ходе работы установлено, что знали об опасности заражения чумой в регионе 64% опрошенных. Осведомлены о роли сурков в заражении человека чумой – 91%. О запрете охоты на сурков известно 96,3% опрошенных, при этом 39% продолжают промысел серого (алтайского) сурка. Выявленные пробелы в настороженности населения в отношении риска заражения чумой удалось устранить за счет активной санитарно-просветительской работы с населением.Заключение. Прямая работа противоэпидемических групп с населением существенным образом сказалась на обеспечении санитарно-эпидемиологического благополучия по чуме, что подтверждается отсутствием заболеваний людей чумой в природном очаге в 2017–2019 гг.

Provision of Epidemiological Welfare on Plague under Aggravation of Epizootic Situation in the Pre-Caspian Sandy Natural Plague Focus in 2014

Reviewed are the lessons learned from cooperation between Rospotrebnadzor institutions in the provision of epidemiological welfare on plague under aggravation of epizootic situation in the territory of the Pre-Caspian sandy natural plague focus in 2014. Plague control measures combined epizootiological and epidemiological monitoring, specific and non-specific prophylaxis, training activities for medical and veterinary officers, instructional advice for medical facilities on matters of infection prevention, and sensitization campaign. Furthermore, vaccinated against plague were 4460 people, field disinsection over 50.5 km2 area was performed, as well as field deratization - 89.4 km2, township disinsection - 257.3 thous. m2, and township deratization - 329.1 thous. m2. Financial expenses on prophylactic (anti-epidemic) activities amounted to 23265.8 thousand rubles. Outlined was viability of preventive planning and prophylactic measures in the territories with forecasted aggravation of epizootic situation in natural plague foci of the Russian Federation

Impact of the Present-Day Climate Changes on the Natural Plague Foci Condition, Situated in the Territory of the Russian Federation and Other CIS Countries

Climate changes determine dynamics of epizootic activity of natural plague foci in the XX and XXI centuries. Obvious shift to continentality in the Northern hemisphere can put an end to inter-epizootic period in lowland steppe and semi-desert natural foci of the Pre-Caucasian region, North and North-West Caspian Sea regions. Presently observed conjoined development of inter-epizootic periods in natural plague foci with different biocoenotic structure in the territory of Pre-Caspian Lowland gives the grounds for assuming the presence of a common cause preconditioning parasitic system depression in the region. One of the key elements of this phenomenon is a change of status of little souslik – formerly the main plague carrier in the region. Subsequent to the climate change the key role of plague carrier is more often played by non-hibernating rodent species nowadays. Thus a significant increase in epizootic potential of steppe natural plague foci in the territory of Kazakhstan and Central Asia is prognosticated. With the further temperature fall during wintertime, snow cover height increase and glacial area extension epizootic activity of the mountain and high mountain foci must drop off significantly. Alongside with this updated data on plague agent ecology, predetermining possibility of its existence in the soil biota, confirm the key role of climactic factors in the plague enzootic outbreak

Analysis of the Current Epidemiological Situation in Natural Plague Foci around the World. Enhancement of the Effectiveness of Epidemiological Surveillance in Natural Plague Foci of the Russian Federation and Forecast of their Epizootic Activity for 2019

The paper presents the analysis of epidemic activity of natural plague foci around the world, including in CIS and the Russian Federation, over the period of 2000–2018. It was established that in 2010–2018, epidemic manifestations took place in natural plague foci where the main carriers are synanthropic (black, multinippled rats) and commercial (marmots, souslik, ground squirrels) species of rodents. Retaining of low epizootic activity of lowland natural plague foci in the territory of the Russian Federation is observed. In 2018, plague epizooties were detected in the territory of the Gorno-Altai high-mountain and Tuva mountain natural foci, the total coverage area being 2641 km2. 13 strains of the main subspecies and 6 strains of Altaic subspecies of plague microbe were isolated. Demonstrated were the prospects of GIS-technology usage for the enhancement of epidemiological surveillance over plague in Russia. Epizootiological forecast for persisting challenging epidemiological situation in Kosh-Agach district of the Republic of Altai and Mongun-Taiginsky, Ovyursky and Tes-Khemsky Kozhuuns of the Republic of Tuva was substantiated. Recorded was high probability of retention of strained epizootic and epidemiological situation in the south and central parts of the desert zone in the Republic of Kazakhstan, high-mountain areas of the Republic of Kyrgyzstan. Also conservation of epidemic risks for the territories of the countries in Africa (Republic of Madagascar), South (Peru, Bolivia), and North (USA) America, China, and Mongolia was noted