Development of a Model for the Small-Particle Orbital Debris Population Based on the STS Impact Record

In preparation for the release of the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) version 3.1, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) revisited how orbiting debris populations of characteristic sizes smaller than 1 cm were modeled. The primary contributor to the population of sub-centimeter debris particles is the surface deterioration or erosion of spacecraft materials exposed to the outer-space environment. Because small particulates are not directly trackable by remote sensing, the primary means of detection is via historical counts of small impact features on flown radiator and window surfaces of the U.S. Space Transportation System (STS, also known as the Space Shuttle) from 1995-2011. Historic NASA studies of high-velocity impact tests have related impact-feature size to particle mass and velocity for certain STS surfaces, so that a corresponding particle size may be inferred from each small-impact feature observed. Micro-debris populations are then estimated by modeling the path and orientation of an STS mission through a simulated debris environment, and the densities of this simulated environment are rescaled to approximate the number of observed STS impact features. Monte-Carlo methods are further employed to gauge the estimation uncertainty of the rescaled environment. A description of the chosen methodologies for estimating and adjusting the micro-debris population model, and the results, are presented

Characterization of the 2012-044C Briz-M Upper Stage Breakup

On 6 August, 2012, Russia launched two commercial satellites aboard a Proton rocket, and attempted to place them in geosynchronous orbit using a Briz-M upper stage (2012-044C, SSN 38746). Unfortunately, the upper stage failed early in its burn and was left stranded in an elliptical orbit with a perigee in low Earth orbit (LEO). Because the stage failed with much of its fuel on board, it was deemed a significant breakup risk. These fears were confirmed when it broke up 16 October, creating a large cloud of debris with perigees below that of the International Space Station. The debris cloud was tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network (SSN), which can reliably detect and track objects down to about 10 cm in size. Because of the unusual geometry of the breakup, there was an opportunity for NASA Orbital Debris Program Office to use specialized radar assets to characterize the extent of the debris cloud in sizes smaller than the standard debris tracked by the SSN. This paper will describe the observation campaign to measure the small particle distributions of this cloud, and presents the results of the analysis of the data. We shall compare the data to the modelled size distribution, number, and shape of the cloud, and what implications this may have for future breakup debris models. We shall conclude the paper with a discussion how this measurement process can be improved for future breakups

Characterization of the 2012-044c Briz-M Upper Stage Breakup

On 6 August, 2012, Russia launched two commercial satellites aboard a Proton rocket, and attempted to place them in geosynchronous orbit using a Briz-M upper stage (2012-044C, SSN 38746). Unfortunately, the upper stage failed early in its burn and was left stranded in an elliptical orbit with a perigee in low Earth orbit (LEO). Because the stage failed with much of its fuel on board, it was deemed a significant breakup risk. These fears were confirmed when it broke up 16 October, creating a large cloud of debris with perigees below that of the International Space Station. The debris cloud was tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network (SSN), which can reliably detect and track objects down to about 10 cm in size. Because of the unusual geometry of the breakup, there was an opportunity for NASA Orbital Debris Program Office to request radar assets to characterize the extent of the debris cloud in sizes smaller than the standard debris tracked by the SSN. This paper will describe the observation campaign to measure the small particle distributions of this cloud, and presents the results of the analysis of the data. We shall compare the data to the modelled size distribution, number, and shape of the cloud, and what implications this may have for future breakup debris models. We shall conclude the paper with a discussion how this measurement process can be improved for future breakups

Operational and Technical Updates to the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool

The Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) has been used in the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office for over 25 years to estimate risk due to uncontrolled reentry of spacecraft and rocket bodies. Development over the last 3 years has included: a major change to the treatment of carbon fiber- and glass fiber-reinforced plastics (CFRP and GFRP, respectively); an updated atmospheric model; a new model for computing casualty area around an impacting debris object; and a newly-implemented scheme to determine the breakup altitude of a reentry object. Software also was written to automatically perform parameter sweeps in ORSAT to allow for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for components with borderline demisability. These updates have improved the speed and fidelity of the reentry analysis performed using ORSAT, and have allowed for improved engineering understanding by estimating the uncertainty for each components survivability. A statistical model for initial conditions captures the latitude bias in population density, a large improvement over the previous inclination-based latitude-averaged models. A sample spacecraft has been analyzed with standard techniques using ORSAT 6.2.1 and again using all the updated models; we will demonstrate the variation in the total debris casualty area and overall expectation of casualty

The NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model 3.1: Development, Verification, and Validation

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has developed the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) primarily as a tool for spacecraft designers and other users to understand the long-term risk of collisions with orbital debris. The newest version, ORDEM 3.1, incorporates the latest and highest fidelity datasets available to build and validate representative orbital debris populations encompassing low Earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO) altitudes for the years 2016-2050. ORDEM 3.1 models fluxes for object sizes > 10 m within or transiting LEO and > 10 cm in GEO. The deterministic portion of the populations in ORDEM 3.1 is based on the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog, which provides coverage down to approximately 10 cm in LEO and 1 m in GEO. Observational datasets from radar, in situ, and optical sources provide a foundation from which the model populations are statistically extrapolated to smaller sizes and orbit regions that are not well-covered by the SSN catalog, yet may pose the greatest threat to operational spacecraft. Objects in LEO ranging from approximately 5 mm to 10 cm are modeled using observational data from ground-based radar, namely the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR formerly known as Haystack). The LEO population smaller than approximately 3 mm in size is characterized based on a reanalysis of in situ data from impacts to the windows and radiators of the U.S. Space Transportation System orbiter vehicle, i.e., the Space Shuttle. Data from impacts on the Hubble Space Telescope are also used to validate the sub-millimeter model populations in LEO. Debris in GEO with sizes ranging from 10 cm to 1 m is modeled using optical measurement data from the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST). Specific, major debris-producing events, including the Fengyun-1C, Iridium 33, and Cosmos 2251 debris clouds, and unique populations, such as sodium-potassium droplets, have been re-examined and are modeled and added to the ORDEM environment separately. The debris environment greater than 1 mm is forecast using NASAs LEO-to- GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND). Future explosions of intact objects and collisions involving objects greater than 10 cm are assessed statistically, and the NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model is used to generate fragments from these events. Fragments smaller than 10 cm are further differentiated based on material density categories, i.e., high-, medium-, and low-density, to better characterize the potential debris risk posed to spacecraft. The future projection of the sub-millimeter environment is computed using a special small-particle degradation model where small particles are created from intact spacecraft and rocket bodies. This work discusses the development, features, and capabilities of the ORDEM 3.1 model; the ne new data analyses used to build the model populations; and sample verification and validation results

Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope Observations of the Geosynchronous Orbital Debris Environment. Observing Years: 2007-2009

NASA uses the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST), the University of Michigan's 0.61-m aperture Curtis-Schmidt telescope at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile, to help characterize the debris environment in geosynchronous orbit; this began in February 2001 and continues to the present day. Detected objects that are found to be on the U.S. Space Surveillance Network cataloged objects list are termed correlated targets (CTs), while those not found on the list are called uncorrelated targets (UCTs). This Johnson Space Center report provides details of observational and data-reduction processes for the entire MODEST dataset acquired in calendar years (CYs) 2007, 2008, and 2009. Specifically, this report describes the collection and analysis of 36 nights of data collected in CY 2007, 43 nights of data collected in CY 2008, and 43 nights of data collected in CY 2009. MODEST is equipped with a 2048 x 2048-pixel charged coupled device camera with a 1.3 by 1.3 deg field of view. This system is capable of detecting objects fainter than 18th magnitude (R filter) using a 5-s integration. This corresponds to a 20-cm diameter, 0.175-albedo object at 36,000 km altitude assuming a diffuse Lambertian phase function. The average number of detections each night over all 3 years was 26. The percentage of this number that represented the UCT population ranged from 34% to 18%, depending on the observing strategy and the field center location. Due to the short orbital arc over which observations are made, the eccentricity of the object s orbit is extremely difficult to measure accurately. Therefore, a circular orbit was assumed when calculating the orbital elements. A comparison of the measured inclination (INC), right ascension of ascending node (RAAN), and mean motion to the quantities for CTs from the U.S. Space Surveillance Network shows acceptable errors. This analysis lends credibility to the determination of the UCT orbital distributions. Figure 1 shows the size distribution of 3,143 objects detected in the data processed for CYs 2007, 2008, and 2009. The actual peak of the absolute magnitude distribution for the functional correlated targets is 10th magnitude, whereas the peak was 11th magnitude in 2002 2003 and 10th magnitude for 2004-2006. An absolute magnitude of 10.5 corresponds to objects with average diameters of 6.3 m, assuming an albedo of 0.175 and a diffuse Lambertian phase function. This result generally agrees with the known sizes of intact satellites. The absolute magnitude distribution for the UCTs is broad, but starts to roll off near 25 cm diameter or 17.5 magnitude. This roll off in the distribution reflects the detection capability of MODEST, not the true nature of the population. The true population is believed to continue at the same slope through fainter magnitudes based on comparisons with the LEO break-up law

Calculating Statistical Orbit Distributions Using GEO Optical Observations with the Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST)

NASA's Orbital Debris measurements program has a goal to characterize the small debris environment in the geosynchronous Earth-orbit (GEO) region using optical telescopes ("small" refers to objects too small to catalog and track with current systems). Traditionally, observations of GEO and near-GEO objects involve following the object with the telescope long enough to obtain an orbit suitable for tracking purposes. Telescopes operating in survey mode, however, randomly observe objects that pass through their field of view. Typically, these short-arc observation are inadequate to obtain detailed orbits, but can be used to estimate approximate circular orbit elements (semimajor axis, inclination, and ascending node). From this information, it should be possible to make statistical inferences about the orbital distributions of the GEO population bright enough to be observed by the system. The Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) has been making such statistical surveys of the GEO region for four years. During that time, the telescope has made enough observations in enough areas of the GEO belt to have had nearly complete coverage. That means that almost all objects in all possible orbits in the GEO and near- GEO region had a non-zero chance of being observed. Some regions (such as those near zero inclination) have had good coverage, while others are poorly covered. Nevertheless, it is possible to remove these statistical biases and reconstruct the orbit populations within the limits of sampling error. In this paper, these statistical techniques and assumptions are described, and the techniques are applied to the current MODEST data set to arrive at our best estimate of the GEO orbit population distribution

Survey and Chase: A New Method of Observations For The Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST)

For more than 40 years astronauts have been observing Earth, taking photographs or digital images from their spacecraft. Today, a robust program of observation from the International Space Station (ISS) has yielded hundreds of thousands of images of the Earth s surface collected since 2001. Seeing Earth through the eyes of an astronaut is exciting to the general public, and the images are popular in classrooms. Because the ISS has an orbital inclination of 51.6 degrees (the north-south limits of the orbit are at 51.6 degrees latitude), high latitude observations are common. Some of the most striking images collected include views of polar phenomena. Astronauts routinely pass above brilliant red and green aurora; view high, wispy clouds at the top of the atmosphere; or look down on glaciers and floating ice rafts. These images, framed and captured by humans, are easily interpreted by students and teachers. Astronaut observations provide a way to visualize complicated polar phenomena and communicate about them to students of all ages. Over the next two years, astronauts aboard the ISS will formally focus their observations on polar phenomena as participants in the International Polar Year (IPY). Imagery acquisition from the ISS will be coordinated with other IPY scientists staging studies and field campaigns on the ground. The imagery collected from the ISS will be cataloged and served on NASA s web-based database of images, http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov . The website allows investigators, students and teachers to search through the imagery, assemble image datasets, and download the imagery and the metadata. We display some of the most spectacular examples of polar imagery and demonstrate NASA s database of astronaut images of Earth

Comparison of Orbital Parameters for GEO Debris Predicted by LEGEND and Observed by MODEST: Can Sources of Orbital Debris be Identified?

Since 2002 the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has carried out an optical survey of the debris environment in the geosynchronous Earth-orbit (GEO) region with the Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) in Chile. The survey coverage has been similar for 4 of the 5 years allowing us to follow the orbital evolution of Correlated Targets (CTs), both controlled and un-controlled objects, and Un-Correlated Targets (UCTs). Under gravitational perturbations the distributions of uncontrolled objects, both CTs and UCTs, in GEO orbits will evolve in predictable patterns, particularly evident in the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node (RAAN) distributions. There are several clusters (others have used a "cloud" nomenclature) in observed distributions that show evolution from year to year in their inclination and ascending node elements. However, when MODEST is in survey mode (field-of-view approx.1.3deg) it provides only short 5-8 minute orbital arcs which can only be fit under the assumption of a circular orbit approximation (ACO) to determine the orbital parameters. These ACO elements are useful only in a statistical sense as dedicated observing runs would be required to obtain sufficient orbital coverage to determine a set of accurate orbital elements and then to follow their evolution. Identification of the source(s) for these "clusters of UCTs" would be advantageous to the overall definition of the GEO orbital debris environment. This paper will set out to determine if the ACO elements can be used to in a statistical sense to identify the source of the "clustering of UCTs" roughly centered on an inclination of 12deg and a RAAN of 345deg. The breakup of the Titan 3C-4 transtage on February 21, 1992 has been modeled using NASA s LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris) code to generate a GEO debris cloud. Breakup fragments are created based on the NASA Standard Breakup Model (including fragment size, area-to-mass (A/M), and delta-V distributions). Once fragments are created, they are propagated forward in time with a subroutine GEOPROP. Perturbations included in GEOPROP are those due to solar/lunar gravity, radiation pressure, and major geopotential terms. The question to be addressed: are the UCTs detected by MODEST in this inclination/RAAN region related to the Titan 3C-4 breakup? Discussion will include the observational biases in attempting to detect a specific, uncontrolled target during given observing session. These restrictions include: (1) the length of the observing session which is 8 hours or less at any given date or declination; (2) the assumption of ACO elements for detected object when the breakup model predicts debris with non-zero eccentricities; (3) the size and illumination or brightness of the debris predicted by the model and the telescope/sky limiting magnitude

Integrating Orbital Debris Measurements and Modeling - How Observations and Laboratory Data are used to Help Make Space Operations Safer

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has been statistically surveying human-made resident space objects (RSOs) in geocentric orbits for several decades, using optical and infrared telescopes. The prime goal has been to understand the evolving population and characteristics of debris generated by RSOs. The debris population includes any non-functioning RSO that no longer serves a useful purpose. Any object that cannot be purposely maneuvered, including non-functioning satellites, rocket bodies, and any object generated by a collision, explosion, or fragmentation event, may pose a future collisional threat to active satellites. Key questions immediately surface from this knowledge: What can we do to protect our precious functioning satellites from collisions? How do we design our satellites to prevent them from being future sources of debris? And what can we do as a society to protect the environment surrounding Earth to preserve it for future generations? To begin to address these questions, and to better understand this population as well as break-up events contributing to it, NASA has developed a suite of models and experimental laboratory data to work in tandem with observational and laboratory measurements of RSOs. These models include the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM), the Standard Satellite Break-up Model (SSBM), and an evolutionary model of the environment from LEO to GEO (LEGEND). Ground-based data have been collected from the infrared telescope UKIRT (UK Infrared Telescope) in Hawaii, as well as the 1.3m Eugene Stansbery Meter Class Autonomous Telescope, ES-MCAT, historically called MCAT, on Ascension Island. MCAT will be tasked to collect GEO (Geosynchronous) survey data, scanning orbits to search for uncatalogued objects (e.g. fragmentation/break-up events (SSBM)), and targeted observations of catalogued objects for more intensive studies, e.g. when a break-up or anomalous event occurs. Laboratory experimental data includes DebriSat, a satellite impacted at ~6.9 km/s in an impact laboratory on Earth, and optical photometry from the Optical Measurements Center at NASA JSC. An integrated view will be discussed of how our telescopic observations and lab measurements interplay with models to understand the current (ORDEM) and future (LEGEND) environment, the evolution of satellite breakups (SSBM), and how this knowledge can help to promote an environment that is safer for operations