Sensitivity Analysis for Unmeasured Confounding in Meta-Analyses

Random-effects meta-analyses of observational studies can produce biased estimates if the synthesized studies are subject to unmeasured confounding. We propose sensitivity analyses quantifying the extent to which unmeasured confounding of specified magnitude could reduce to below a certain threshold the proportion of true effect sizes that are scientifically meaningful. We also develop converse methods to estimate the strength of confounding capable of reducing the proportion of scientifically meaningful true effects to below a chosen threshold. These methods apply when a "bias factor" is assumed to be normally distributed across studies or is assessed across a range of fixed values. Our estimators are derived using recently proposed sharp bounds on confounding bias within a single study that do not make assumptions regarding the unmeasured confounders themselves or the functional form of their relationships to the exposure and outcome of interest. We provide an R package, ConfoundedMeta, and a freely available online graphical user interface that compute point estimates and inference and produce plots for conducting such sensitivity analyses. These methods facilitate principled use of random-effects meta-analyses of observational studies to assess the strength of causal evidence for a hypothesis

Is Optimism Associated With Healthier Cardiovascular-Related Behavior? Meta-Analyses of 3 Health Behaviors

Optimistic people have reduced risk for cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular-related mortality compared with their less optimistic peers. One explanation for this is that optimistic people may be more likely to engage in healthy behavior like exercising frequently, eating fruits and vegetables, and avoiding cigarette smoking. However, researchers have not formally determined the extent or direction of optimism’s association with health behaviors. Moreover, it is unclear whether optimism temporally precedes health behaviors or whether the relationship is because of shared common causes. We conducted random effects meta-analyses examining optimism’s association with 3 health behaviors relevant for the prevention of cardiovascular disease. PubMed and PsycINFO databases were searched for studies published through November 2017 reporting on optimism’s relationship with physical activity, diet, and cigarette smoking. We identified 34 effect sizes for physical activity (n=90 845), 15 effect sizes for diet (n=47 931), and 15 effect sizes for cigarette smoking (n=15 052). Findings suggested that more optimistic individuals tended to engage in healthier behaviors compared with less optimistic individuals, but effect sizes were modest (ractivity=0.07, P\u3c0.0001; rdiet=0.12, P\u3c0.0001; and rsmoking=0.07, P=0.001). Most evidence was cross-sectional (≥53% of effect sizes) and did not consider sociodemographic characteristics (\u3c53% of effect sizes) or psychological distress (\u3c27% of effect sizes) as potential confounders. Optimism is associated with healthier behaviors that protect against cardiovascular disease, although most evidence was relatively low quality. Additional longitudinal and experimental research is required to determine whether optimism causally contributes to healthy behaviors and whether optimism could be an effective target for preventing cardiovascular disease

Guidelines for generating right-censored outcomes from a cox model extended to accommodate time-varying covariates

Simulating studies with right-censored outcomes as functions of time-varying covariates is discussed. Guidelines on the use of an algorithm developed by Zhou and implemented by Hendry are provided. Through simulation studies, the sensitivity of the method to user inputs is considered

Higher Absolute Lymphocyte Counts Predict Lower Mortality from Early-Stage Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

Purpose: Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) in pretreatment biopsies are associated with improved survival in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). We investigated whether higher peripheral lymphocyte counts are associated with lower breast cancer–specific mortality (BCM) and overall mortality (OM) in TNBC. Experimental Design: Data on treatments and diagnostic tests from electronic medical records of two health care systems were linked with demographic, clinical, pathologic, and mortality data from the California Cancer Registry. Multivariable regression models adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, cancer stage, grade, neoadjuvant/adjuvant chemotherapy use, radiotherapy use, and germline BRCA1/2 mutations were used to evaluate associations between absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), BCM, and OM. For a subgroup with TIL data available, we explored the relationship between TILs and peripheral lymphocyte counts. Results: A total of 1,463 stage I–III TNBC patients were diagnosed from 2000 to 2014; 1,113 (76%) received neoadjuvant/adjuvant chemotherapy within 1 year of diagnosis. Of 759 patients with available ALC data, 481 (63.4%) were ever lymphopenic (minimum ALC <1.0 K/μL). On multivariable analysis, higher minimum ALC, but not absolute neutrophil count, predicted lower OM [HR = 0.23; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.16–0.35] and BCM (HR = 0.19; CI, 0.11–0.34). Five-year probability of BCM was 15% for patients who were ever lymphopenic versus 4% for those who were not. An exploratory analysis (n = 70) showed a significant association between TILs and higher peripheral lymphocyte counts during neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Conclusions: Higher peripheral lymphocyte counts predicted lower mortality from early-stage, potentially curable TNBC, suggesting that immune function may enhance the effectiveness of early TNBC treatment

Menopausal hormone therapy and women's health:An umbrella review

Background: There remains uncertainty about the impact of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) on women’s health. A systematic, comprehensive assessment of the effects on multiple outcomes is lacking. We conducted an umbrella review to comprehensively summarize evidence on the benefits and harms of MHT across diverse health outcomes. Methods and findings: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and 10 other databases from inception to November 26, 2017, updated on December 17, 2020, to identify systematic reviews or meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies investigating effects of MHT, including estrogen-alone therapy (ET) and estrogen plus progestin therapy (EPT), in perimenopausal or postmenopausal women in all countries and settings. All health outcomes in previous systematic reviews were included, including menopausal symptoms, surrogate endpoints, biomarkers, various morbidity outcomes, and mortality. Two investigators independently extracted data and assessed methodological quality of systematic reviews using the updated 16-item AMSTAR 2 instrument. Random-effects robust variance estimation was used to combine effect estimates, and 95% prediction intervals (PIs) were calculated whenever possible. We used the term MHT to encompass ET and EPT, and results are presented for MHT for each outcome, unless otherwise indicated. Sixty systematic reviews were included, involving 102 meta-analyses of RCTs and 38 of observational studies, with 102 unique outcomes. The overall quality of included systematic reviews was moderate to poor. In meta-analyses of RCTs, MHT was beneficial for vasomotor symptoms (frequency: 9 trials, 1,104 women, risk ratio [RR] 0.43, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.57, p [less than] 0.001; severity: 7 trials, 503 women, RR 0.29, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.50, p = 0.002) and all fracture (30 trials, 43,188 women, RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.84, p = 0.002, 95% PI 0.58 to 0.87), as well as vaginal atrophy (intravaginal ET), sexual function, vertebral and nonvertebral fracture, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular mortality (ET), and colorectal cancer (EPT), but harmful for stroke (17 trials, 37,272 women, RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.29, p = 0.027) and venous thromboembolism (23 trials, 42,292 women, RR 1.60, 95% CI 0.99 to 2.58, p = 0.052, 95% PI 1.03 to 2.99), as well as cardiovascular disease incidence and recurrence, cerebrovascular disease, nonfatal stroke, deep vein thrombosis, gallbladder disease requiring surgery, and lung cancer mortality (EPT). In meta-analyses of observational studies, MHT was associated with decreased risks of cataract, glioma, and esophageal, gastric, and colorectal cancer, but increased risks of pulmonary embolism, cholelithiasis, asthma, meningioma, and thyroid, breast, and ovarian cancer. ET and EPT had opposite effects for endometrial cancer, endometrial hyperplasia, and Alzheimer disease. The major limitations include the inability to address the varying effects of MHT by type, dose, formulation, duration of use, route of administration, and age of initiation and to take into account the quality of individual studies included in the systematic reviews. The study protocol is publicly available on PROSPERO (CRD42017083412). Conclusions: MHT has a complex balance of benefits and harms on multiple health outcomes. Some effects differ qualitatively between ET and EPT. The quality of available evidence is only moderate to poor

Do Forgiveness Campaign Activities Improve Forgiveness, Mental Health, and Flourishing?

Objectives: To evaluate the effectiveness of a forgiveness public health intervention at promoting forgiveness, mental health, and flourishing.Methods: Colombian students (N = 2,878) at a private, nonreligious university were exposed to a 4-week forgiveness community campaign and were assessed pre- and post-campaign.Results: Forgiveness, mental health, and flourishing outcomes showed improvements after the campaign. On average, participants reported engaging in 7.18 (SD = 3.99) of the 16 types of campaign activities. The number of types of campaign activities that participants engaged in evidenced a positive linear association with forgiveness, although some activities were more popular than others and some activities were more strongly associated with increased forgiveness. For depression, anxiety, and flourishing, engaging in more activities was generally associated with greater improvements, but the patterns were less consistent relative to forgiveness.Conclusion: This forgiveness public health intervention effectively promoted forgiveness, mental health, and flourishing. Effective campaigns in diverse communities involve promoting mental and physical health through forgiveness. However, recent conflict may hinder acceptance, necessitating political capital for leadership advocating forgiveness initiatives