Twitter-based analysis of the dynamics of collective attention to political parties

Large-scale data from social media have a significant potential to describe complex phenomena in real world and to anticipate collective behaviors such as information spreading and social trends. One specific case of study is represented by the collective attention to the action of political parties. Not surprisingly, researchers and stakeholders tried to correlate parties' presence on social media with their performances in elections. Despite the many efforts, results are still inconclusive since this kind of data is often very noisy and significant signals could be covered by (largely unknown) statistical fluctuations. In this paper we consider the number of tweets (tweet volume) of a party as a proxy of collective attention to the party, identify the dynamics of the volume, and show that this quantity has some information on the elections outcome. We find that the distribution of the tweet volume for each party follows a log-normal distribution with a positive autocorrelation of the volume over short terms, which indicates the volume has large fluctuations of the log-normal distribution yet with a short-term tendency. Furthermore, by measuring the ratio of two consecutive daily tweet volumes, we find that the evolution of the daily volume of a party can be described by means of a geometric Brownian motion (i.e., the logarithm of the volume moves randomly with a trend). Finally, we determine the optimal period of averaging tweet volume for reducing fluctuations and extracting short-term tendencies. We conclude that the tweet volume is a good indicator of parties' success in the elections when considered over an optimal time window. Our study identifies the statistical nature of collective attention to political issues and sheds light on how to model the dynamics of collective attention in social media.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables. Published in PLoS ON

Immunological and molecular epidemiological characteristics of acute and fulminant viral hepatitis A

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hepatitis A virus is an infection of liver; it is hyperendemic in vast areas of the world including India. In most cases it causes an acute self limited illness but rarely fulminant. There is growing concern about change in pattern from asymptomatic childhood infection to an increased incidence of symptomatic disease in the adult population.</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>In-depth analysis of immunological, viral quantification and genotype of acute and fulminant hepatitis A virus.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Serum samples obtained from 1009 cases of suspected acute viral hepatitis was employed for different biochemical and serological examination. RNA was extracted from blood serum, reverse transcribed into cDNA and amplified using nested PCR for viral quantification, sequencing and genotyping. Immunological cell count from freshly collected whole blood was carried out by fluorescence activated cell sorter.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Fulminant hepatitis A was mostly detected with other hepatic viruses. CD8⁺T cells count increases in fulminant hepatitis to a significantly high level (P = 0.005) compared to normal healthy control. The immunological helper/suppressor (CD4⁺/CD8⁺) ratio of fulminant hepatitis was significantly lower compared to acute cases. The serologically positive patients were confirmed by RT-PCR and total of 72 (69.2%) were quantified and sequenced. The average quantitative viral load of fulminant cases was significantly higher (<it>P </it>< 0.05). There was similar genotypic distribution in both acute and fulminant category, with predominance of genotype IIIA (70%) compared to IA (30%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Immunological factors in combination with viral load defines the severity of the fulminant hepatitis A. Phylogenetic analysis of acute and fulminant hepatitis A confirmed genotypes IIIA as predominant against IA with no preference of disease severity.</p

DNA Encoding an HIV-1 Gag/Human Lysosome-Associated Membrane Protein-1 Chimera Elicits a Broad Cellular and Humoral Immune Response in Rhesus Macaques

Previous studies of HIV-1 p55Gag immunization of mice have demonstrated the usefulness of targeting antigens to the cellular compartment containing the major histocompatibility complex type II (MHC II) complex molecules by use of a DNA antigen formulation encoding Gag as a chimera with the mouse lysosome-associated membrane protein (mLAMP/gag). In the present study, we have analyzed the magnitude and breadth of Gag-specific T-lymphocyte and antibody responses elicited in Rhesus macaques after immunization with DNA encoding a human LAMP/gag (hLAMP/gag) chimera. ELISPOT analyses indicated that the average Gag-specific IFN-γ response elicited by the hLAMP/gag chimera was detectable after only two or three naked DNA immunizations in all five immunized macaques and reached an average of 1000 spot-forming cells (SFC)/10(6) PBMCs. High IFN-γ ELISPOT responses were detected in CD8(+)-depleted cells, indicating that CD4(+) T-cells play a major role in these responses. The T-cell responses of four of the macaques were also tested by use of ELISPOT to 12 overlapping 15-amino acids (aa) peptide pools containing ten peptides each, encompassing the complete Gag protein sequence. The two Mamu 08 immunized macaques responded to eight and twelve of the pools, the Mamu B01 to six, and the other macaque to five pools indicating that the hLAMP/gag DNA antigen formulation elicits a broad T-cell response against Gag. Additionally, there was a strong HIV-1-specific IgG response. The IgG antibody titers increased after each DNA injection, indicating a strong amnestic B-cell response, and were highly elevated in all the macaques after three immunizations. Moreover, the serum of each macaque recognized 13 of the 49 peptides of a 20-aa peptide library covering the complete Gag amino acid sequence. In addition, HIV-1-specific IgA antibodies were present in the plasma and external secretions, including nasal washes. These data support the findings of increased immunogenicity of genetic vaccines encoded as LAMP chimeras, including the response to DNA vaccines by non-human primates

Genome Stability of Lyme Disease Spirochetes: Comparative Genomics of Borrelia burgdorferi Plasmids

Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne human illness in North America. In order to understand the molecular pathogenesis, natural diversity, population structure and epizootic spread of the North American Lyme agent, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, a much better understanding of the natural diversity of its genome will be required. Towards this end we present a comparative analysis of the nucleotide sequences of the numerous plasmids of B. burgdorferi isolates B31, N40, JD1 and 297. These strains were chosen because they include the three most commonly studied laboratory strains, and because they represent different major genetic lineages and so are informative regarding the genetic diversity and evolution of this organism. A unique feature of Borrelia genomes is that they carry a large number of linear and circular plasmids, and this work shows that strains N40, JD1, 297 and B31 carry related but non-identical sets of 16, 20, 19 and 21 plasmids, respectively, that comprise 33–40% of their genomes. We deduce that there are at least 28 plasmid compatibility types among the four strains. The B. burgdorferi ∼900 Kbp linear chromosomes are evolutionarily exceptionally stable, except for a short ≤20 Kbp plasmid-like section at the right end. A few of the plasmids, including the linear lp54 and circular cp26, are also very stable. We show here that the other plasmids, especially the linear ones, are considerably more variable. Nearly all of the linear plasmids have undergone one or more substantial inter-plasmid rearrangements since their last common ancestor. In spite of these rearrangements and differences in plasmid contents, the overall gene complement of the different isolates has remained relatively constant