Cyclical Dynamics in Three Industries

In this paper we offer a procedure to identify the industry cycles, and apply the procedure to the industrial data of three industries, namely semiconductors, PCs and FPDs. The identified cycles enable us to conduct two comparison analyses: (1) comparing the cycles with those suggested by industry experts in the corresponding industries; (2) comparing the industry cycles across the three industries. Moreover, we examine the factors possibly contributing to the cyclical dynamics of the industries built on three lines of explanations in the literature. Our vector auto regression (VAR) models establish that the dynamics of aggregate economy and capacity are among the most significant drivers in our semiconductor industry cycle.Industry cycle, business cycle, technology cycle, business dynamics, VAR model

Accelerated Internationalisation by Emerging Multinationals: the Case of White Goods Sector

The emergence of a "second wave" of developing-country multinational enterprises (MNEs) in a variety of industries is one of the characterizing features of globalization. These new MNEs did not delay their internationalisation until they were large, as did most of their predecessors, and often become global as a result of direct firm-to-firm contracting. Many grow large as they internationalise conversely, they internationalise in order to grow large. This is a striking pattern which, if confirmed, indicates that enterprises from developing countries have pursued distinctive approaches to internationalisation. It is a further interesting hypothesis to investigate to what extent such firms, born as suppliers of established incumbents, have leveraged on their "latecomer" status to accelerate their internationalisation. This paper documents how emerging MNEs may follow quite different patterns to reach, or at least approach, global competitiveness. In particular, it investigates how three latecomer MNEs pursued global growth through accelerated internationalisation combined with strategic and organizational innovation. Haier (China), Mabe (Mexico) and Arcelik (Turkey) emerged as Dragon Multinationals in the large home appliances (so-called "white goods") industry. This is a producer-driven global value chain, characterized by mature technology and rapid delocalization to developing countries, where not only input costs are lower, but demand growth rates are higher - giving a decided latecomer advantage to these MNEs. Haier, Mabe and Arçelik leveraged their strategic partnership with established MNEs to upgrade their operations, evolving from the production of simple goods, into new product lines developed through their own design, branding and marketing capabilities. The recipe of their success has been the ability to treat global competition as an opportunity to build capabilities, move into more profitable industry segments, and adopt strategies that turn latecomer status into a source of competitive advantage. At the same time, their experiences show that there are many strategies and trajectories for going global.Internationalisation; latecomer; MNEs; white goods; Haier; Arcelik; Mabe

Energizing industrial development

The role of energy sources in the c choice of industrial development pathways has not been widely acknowledged outside the energy literature. Indeed, as oil prices rise, traditional fossil fuel-intensive industrial development pathways now imperil development prospects around the world. As energy security becomes a major issue, developing countries have everything to lose by simply following fossil-fuel based industrialization, and everything to gain by recasting their development strategies around the prospects for renewable energies and biofuels. This paper argues that the time is therefore ripe for developing countries to re-evaluate their stance on renewable energy sources generally, and on biofuels in particular.The role of energy sources in the c choice of industrial development pathways has not been widely acknowledged outside the energy literature. Indeed, as oil prices rise, traditional fossil fuel-intensive industrial development pathways now imperil development prospects around the world. As energy security becomes a major issue, developing countries have everything to lose by simply following fossil-fuel based industrialization, and everything to gain by recasting their development strategies around the prospects for renewable energies and biofuels. This paper argues that the time is therefore ripe for developing countries to re-evaluate their stance on renewable energy sources generally, and on biofuels in particular.Articles published in or submitted to a Journal without IF refereed / of international relevanc

Lachmannian Insights into Strategic Entrepreneurship: Resources, Activities and Routines in a Disequilibrium World

Recent contributions to the organizational literature see the radical subjectivist and disequilibrium framework of Ludwig Lachmann as providing a suitable foundation for strategic entrepreneurial studies, in that his approach seeks independence from conventional equilibrium-based reasoning. In a Lachmannian spirit, this article suggests that strategizing can fruitfully be viewed as choices made by the entrepreneur in terms of the organization’s constituent resources, activities and routines together with their recombinations and complexifications. Cast in a general, disequilibrium setting, the strategic goals that guide the organizational entrepreneur’s strategizing can be formulated in terms of the construction and capture of resource complementarities, the pursuit of increasing returns through activities reconfiguration; and the generation of learning and dynamic capabilities through reconfiguration of routines. Once formulated in this way, the strategizing issues may be seen to make sense not just in the comparative static and imperfect equilibrium frameworks within which they have hitherto been posed, but in a more general dynamic and disequilibrium setting that corresponds to the real conditions in which firms are required to make entrepreneurial decisions. The simplified framework offers some hope for overcoming the balkanization of management scholarship that is so widely deplored.Recent contributions to the organizational literature see the radical subjectivist and disequilibrium framework of Ludwig Lachmann as providing a suitable foundation for strategic entrepreneurial studies, in that his approach seeks independence from conventional equilibrium-based reasoning. In a Lachmannian spirit, this article suggests that strategizing can fruitfully be viewed as choices made by the entrepreneur in terms of the organization’s constituent resources, activities and routines together with their recombinations and complexifications. Cast in a general, disequilibrium setting, the strategic goals that guide the organizational entrepreneur’s strategizing can be formulated in terms of the construction and capture of resource complementarities, the pursuit of increasing returns through activities reconfiguration; and the generation of learning and dynamic capabilities through reconfiguration of routines. Once formulated in this way, the strategizing issues may be seen to make sense not just in the comparative static and imperfect equilibrium frameworks within which they have hitherto been posed, but in a more general dynamic and disequilibrium setting that corresponds to the real conditions in which firms are required to make entrepreneurial decisions. The simplified framework offers some hope for overcoming the balkanization of management scholarship that is so widely deplored.Non-Refereed Working Papers / of national relevance onl

Orthogonalization of correlated gaussian signals for volterra system identification

Journal ArticleThis letter presents a simple method for orthogonalizing correlated Gaussian input signals for identification of truncated Volterra systems of arbitrary order of nonlinearity P and memory length N. The procedure requires a Gram-Schmidt orthogonalizer for a vector containing N elements and some nonlinear processing of the output elements of the Gram-Schmidt processor. However, the nonlinear processors do not depend on the statistics of the input signals and, consequently, are easy to design and implement

Adaptive polynomial filters

Journal ArticleWhile linear filter are useful in a large number of applications and relatively simple from conceptual and implementational view points. there are many practical situations that require nonlinear processing of the signals involved. This article explains adaptive nonlinear filters equipped with polynomial models of nonlinearity. The polynomial systems considered are those nonlinear systems whose output signals can be related to the input signals through a truncated Volterra series expansion, or a recursive nonlinear difference equation. The Volterra series expansion can model a large class of nonlinear systems and is attractive in filtering applications because the expansion is a linear combination of nonlinear functions of the input signal. The basic ideas behind the development of gradient and recursive least-squares adaptive Volterra filters are first discussed. followed by adaptive algorithms using system models involving recursive nonlinear difference equations. Such systems are attractive because they may be able to approximate many nonlinear systems with great parsimony in the use pf coefficients. Also discussed are current research trends and new results and problem areas associated with these nonlinear filters. A lattice structure for polynomial models is also described

Termination of War

The termination of war must, at the outset, be distinguished Ifrom the termination of hostilities or actual warfare. As has been said, war is not the mere employment of force, but the existence of the legal condition of things in which rights are or may be prosecuted by force. Thus, if two nations declare war one against the other, war exists, though no force whatever may as yet have been employed. \u27 Similarly, it follows that, although actual hostilities have ceased, the status of war may continue until terminated in some regular way recognized by international law as sufficient for that purpose. Actual hostilities are frequently terminated as the result of the signing of an armistice or a capitulation which may take the form of a protocol or preliminary agreement which regulates the relations between the belligerents until the definitive treaty of peace is signed and ratified