Diurnal defecation rate of moose in southwest Finland

An accurate measure of defecation rate is essential for application of pellet group counts in moose (Alces alces) population estimates. We measured the wintertime, diurnal defecation rate of moose by tracking 7 GPS-collared and 22 uncollared moose in southwest Finland. The mean defecation rate was 23.5 ± 4.2 pellet groups/d, one of the highest values reported. The mean defecation rate did not differ between the tracking methods (GPS vs. uncollared moose); limited sample size precluded conclusions about sex and age differences. The defecation rate was not correlated with calendar week, length of accumulation period, or number of diurnal beds. Our results are appropriate for use in southwest Finland when using the pellet group method to assess moose population density

Using allocative efficiency analysis to inform health benefits package design for progressing towards Universal Health Coverage: Proof-of-concept studies in countries seeking decision support

Background: Countries are increasingly defining health benefits packages (HBPs) as a way of progressing towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC). Resources for health are commonly constrained, so it is imperative to allocate funds as efficiently as possible. We conducted allocative efficiency analyses using the Health Interventions Prioritization tool (HIPtool) to estimate the cost and impact of potential HBPs in three countries. These analyses explore the usefulness of allocative efficiency analysis and HIPtool in particular, in contributing to priority setting discussions. / Methods and findings: HIPtool is an open-access and open-source allocative efficiency modelling tool. It is preloaded with publicly available data, including data on the 218 cost-effective interventions comprising the Essential UHC package identified in the 3rd Edition of Disease Control Priorities, and global burden of disease data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. For these analyses, the data were adapted to the health systems of Armenia, Côte d’Ivoire and Zimbabwe. Local data replaced global data where possible. Optimized resource allocations were then estimated using the optimization algorithm. In Armenia, optimized spending on UHC interventions could avert 26% more disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), but even highly cost-effective interventions are not funded without an increase in the current health budget. In Côte d’Ivoire, surgical interventions, maternal and child health and health promotion interventions are scaled up under optimized spending with an estimated 22% increase in DALYs averted–mostly at the primary care level. In Zimbabwe, the estimated gain was even higher at 49% of additional DALYs averted through optimized spending. / Conclusions: HIPtool applications can assist discussions around spending prioritization, HBP design and primary health care transformation. The analyses provided actionable policy recommendations regarding spending allocations across specific delivery platforms, disease programs and interventions. Resource constraints exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic increase the need for formal planning of resource allocation to maximize health benefits

ESTUDO DA CONTRIBUIÇÃO INERCIAL E DE AMORTECIMENTO DE LINHAS DE ANCORAGEM NO MOVIMENTO DE MONOBOIAS

In offshore oil production activities, monobuoys comprise oceanic terminals used by offloading ships to control the oil transference to the coast. They are relatively small structures, with accentuated dynamic responses when submitted to wave forces. Due to their lower inertia when compared with other types of floating systems, their mooring lines and risers lines may contribute directly with its static and dynamic behavior, evidencing a structural and hydrodynamic coupling between monobuoy and lines. In the search of an analysis methodology that may take advantage on both coupled and uncoupled formulations, this work presents procedures to evaluate, based on coupled simulations, the inertial and damping contribution of the mooring lines and risers into the monobuoy’s responses. These values may be inserted as input parameters into a calibrated uncoupled simulation to obtain dynamic responses with higher accuracy and lower computational cost. This work will present a case study of a standard monobuoy, with 9 mooring lines, located into a 90 meter water depth, comparing the motions provided by coupled and uncoupled simulations, with and without the proposed calibration procedure, and assessing the computational costs

Preeclampsia prediction with blood pressure measurements: A global external validation of the ALSPAC models

Objective: The prediction of preeclampsia in pregnancy has resulted in a plethora of prognostic models. Yet, very few make it past the development stage and most fail to influence clinical practice. The timely identification of high-risk pregnant women could deliver a tailored antenatal care regimen, particularly in low-resource settings. This study externally validated and calibrated previously published models that predicted the risk of preeclampsia, based on blood pressure (BP) at multiple time points in pregnancy, in a geographically diverse population. Methods: The prospective INTERBIO-21st Fetal Study included 3,391 singleton pregnancies from Brazil, Kenya, Pakistan, South Africa, Thailand and the UK, 2012–2018. Preeclampsia prediction was based on baseline characteristics, BP and deviation from the expected BP trajectory at multiple time points in pregnancy. The prediction rules from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) were implemented in the INTERBIO-21st cohort. Results: Model discrimination was similar to the development cohort. Performance was best with baseline characteristics and a BP measurement at 34 weeks’ gestation (AUC 0.85, 95 % CI 0.80–0.90). The ALSPAC models largely overestimated the true risk of preeclampsia incidence in the INTERBIO-21st cohort. Conclusions: After recalibration, these prediction models could potentially serve as a risk stratifying tool to help identify women who might benefit from increased surveillance during pregnancy

Pyrolysis of medium-density fiberboard: optimized search for kinetics scheme and parameters via a genetic algorithm driven by Kissinger's method

The pyrolysis kinetics of charring materials plays an important role in understanding material combustions especially for construction materials with complex degradation chemistry. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) is frequently used to study the heterogeneous kinetics of solid fuels; however, there is no agreed method to determine the pyrolysis scheme and kinetic parameters for charring polymers with multiple components and competing reaction pathways. This study develops a new technique to estimate the possible numbers of species and sub-reactions in pyrolysis by analyzing the second derivatives of thermogravimetry (DDTG) curves. The pyrolysis of a medium-density fiberboard (MDF) in nitrogen is studied in detail, and the DDTG curves are used to locate the temperature of the peak mass-loss rate for each sub-reaction. Then, on the basis of the TG data under multiple heating rates, Kissinger’s method is used to quickly find the possible range of values of the kinetic parameters (<i>A</i> and <i>E</i>). These ranges are used to accelerate the optimization of the inverse problem using a genetic algorithm (GA) for the kinetic and stoichiometric parameters. The proposed method and kinetic scheme found are shown to match the experimental data and are able to predict accurately results at different heating rates better than Kissinger’s method. Moreover, the search method (K–K method) is highly efficient, faster than the regular GA search alone. Modeling results show that, as the TG data available increase, the interdependence among kinetic parameters becomes weak and the accuracy of the first-order model declines. Furthermore, conducting TG experiment under multiple heating rates is found to be crucial in obtaining good kinetic parameters

What is the potential for replacing monocultures with mixed-species stands to enhance ecosystem services in boreal forests in Fennoscandia?

The boreal forests of Fennoscandia are largely dominated by Norway spruce and Scots pine. Conifer monocultures have been favoured in forest management during the last decades. Recently, concern has risen that forests consisting of only one tree species could be vulnerable to biotic damage. Additionally, environmental and societal changes are placing new demands on forest utilization, thus shifting the focus to alternative forest management options providing a wider scale of ecosystem services. It has been proposed that mixed forests are better than monocultures with respect to biodiversity, risk management and recreational value. By synthesising research studies, we provide an overview of current knowledge on how to combine wood production and other ecosystem services in mixed boreal forests in Fennoscandia. We addressed the following questions in more detail: what are the effects of mixed forests on soil properties, understorey vegetation, biodiversity, wildlife, resistance to and resilience against damage, forest productivity and the multiple use of forests? Furthermore, what are the silvicultural possibilities for establishing and managing mixed forests?Based on this review, mixed forests appear to provide a higher output of most ecosystem goods and services, including higher biodiversity and improved risk management, soil properties and multiple-use values. The most serious challenge is the browsing by cervids, which damages sapling stands. There is potential to establish single-storied mixed forests with current regeneration methods and material. Further research is particularly needed on the silvicultural practices suited for mixed boreal forests

Influences of Forest Structure, Climate and Species Composition on Tree Mortality across the Eastern US

Few studies have quantified regional variation in tree mortality, or explored whether species compositional changes or within-species variation are responsible for regional patterns, despite the fact that mortality has direct effects on the dynamics of woody biomass, species composition, stand structure, wood production and forest response to climate change. Using Bayesian analysis of over 430,000 tree records from a large eastern US forest database we characterised tree mortality as a function of climate, soils, species and size (stem diameter). We found (1) mortality is U-shaped vs. stem diameter for all 21 species examined; (2) mortality is hump-shaped vs. plot basal area for most species; (3) geographical variation in mortality is substantial, and correlated with several environmental factors; and (4) individual species vary substantially from the combined average in the nature and magnitude of their mortality responses to environmental variation. Regional variation in mortality is therefore the product of variation in species composition combined with highly varied mortality-environment correlations within species. The results imply that variation in mortality is a crucial part of variation in the forest carbon cycle, such that including this variation in models of the global carbon cycle could significantly narrow uncertainty in climate change predictions

Association Between Preterm-Birth Phenotypes and Differential Morbidity, Growth, and Neurodevelopment at Age 2 Years: Results From the INTERBIO-21st Newborn Study.

Importance: The etiologic complexities of preterm birth remain inadequately understood, which may impede the development of better preventative and treatment measures. Objective: To examine the association between specific preterm-birth phenotypes and clinical, growth, and neurodevelopmental differences among preterm newborns compared with term newborns up to age 2 years. Design, Setting, and Participants: The INTERBIO-21st study included a cohort of preterm and term newborn singletons enrolled between March 2012 and June 2018 from maternity hospitals in 6 countries worldwide who were followed up from birth to age 2 years. All pregnancies were dated by ultrasonography. Data were analyzed from November 2019 to October 2020. Exposures/Interventions: Preterm-birth phenotypes. Main Outcomes and Measures: Infant size, health, nutrition, and World Health Organization motor development milestones assessed at ages 1 and 2 years; neurodevelopment evaluated at age 2 years using the INTERGROWTH-21st Neurodevelopment Assessment (INTER-NDA) tool. Results: A total of 6529 infants (3312 boys [50.7%]) were included in the analysis. Of those, 1381 were preterm births (mean [SD] gestational age at birth, 34.4 [0.1] weeks; 5148 were term births (mean [SD] gestational age at birth, 39.4 [0] weeks). Among 1381 preterm newborns, 8 phenotypes were identified: no main maternal, fetal, or placental condition detected (485 infants [35.1%]); infections (289 infants [20.9%]); preeclampsia (162 infants [11.7%]); fetal distress (131 infants [9.5%]); intrauterine growth restriction (110 infants [8.0%]); severe maternal disease (85 infants [6.2%]); bleeding (71 infants [5.1%]); and congenital anomaly (48 infants [3.5%]). For all phenotypes, a previous preterm birth was a risk factor for recurrence. Each phenotype displayed differences in neonatal morbidity and infant outcomes. For example, infants with the no main condition detected phenotype had low neonatal morbidity but increased morbidity and hospitalization incidence at age 1 year (odds ratio [OR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.8-2.7). Compared with term newborns, the highest risk of scoring lower than the 10th centile of INTER-NDA normative values was observed in the fine motor development domain among newborns with the fetal distress (OR, 10.6; 95% CI, 5.1-22.2) phenotype. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this study suggest that phenotypic classification may provide a better understanding of the etiologic factors and mechanisms associated with preterm birth than continuing to consider it an exclusively time-based entity

Association Between Preterm-Birth Phenotypes and Differential Morbidity, Growth, and Neurodevelopment at Age 2 Years: Results From the INTERBIO-21st Newborn Study.

Importance: The etiologic complexities of preterm birth remain inadequately understood, which may impede the development of better preventative and treatment measures. Objective: To examine the association between specific preterm-birth phenotypes and clinical, growth, and neurodevelopmental differences among preterm newborns compared with term newborns up to age 2 years. Design, Setting, and Participants: The INTERBIO-21st study included a cohort of preterm and term newborn singletons enrolled between March 2012 and June 2018 from maternity hospitals in 6 countries worldwide who were followed up from birth to age 2 years. All pregnancies were dated by ultrasonography. Data were analyzed from November 2019 to October 2020. Exposures/Interventions: Preterm-birth phenotypes. Main Outcomes and Measures: Infant size, health, nutrition, and World Health Organization motor development milestones assessed at ages 1 and 2 years; neurodevelopment evaluated at age 2 years using the INTERGROWTH-21st Neurodevelopment Assessment (INTER-NDA) tool. Results: A total of 6529 infants (3312 boys [50.7%]) were included in the analysis. Of those, 1381 were preterm births (mean [SD] gestational age at birth, 34.4 [0.1] weeks; 5148 were term births (mean [SD] gestational age at birth, 39.4 [0] weeks). Among 1381 preterm newborns, 8 phenotypes were identified: no main maternal, fetal, or placental condition detected (485 infants [35.1%]); infections (289 infants [20.9%]); preeclampsia (162 infants [11.7%]); fetal distress (131 infants [9.5%]); intrauterine growth restriction (110 infants [8.0%]); severe maternal disease (85 infants [6.2%]); bleeding (71 infants [5.1%]); and congenital anomaly (48 infants [3.5%]). For all phenotypes, a previous preterm birth was a risk factor for recurrence. Each phenotype displayed differences in neonatal morbidity and infant outcomes. For example, infants with the no main condition detected phenotype had low neonatal morbidity but increased morbidity and hospitalization incidence at age 1 year (odds ratio [OR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.8-2.7). Compared with term newborns, the highest risk of scoring lower than the 10th centile of INTER-NDA normative values was observed in the fine motor development domain among newborns with the fetal distress (OR, 10.6; 95% CI, 5.1-22.2) phenotype. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this study suggest that phenotypic classification may provide a better understanding of the etiologic factors and mechanisms associated with preterm birth than continuing to consider it an exclusively time-based entity