Some common errors of experimental design, interpretation and inference in agreement studies

We signal and discuss common methodological errors in agreement studies and the use of kappa indices, as found in publications in the medical and behavioural sciences. Our analysis is based on a proposed statistical model that is in line with the typical models employed in metrology and measurement theory. A first cluster of errors is related to nonrandom sampling, which results in a potentially substantial bias in the estimated agreement. Second, when class prevalences are strongly nonuniform, the use of the kappa index becomes precarious, as its large partial derivatives result in typically large standard errors of the estimates. In addition, the index reflects rather one-sidedly in such cases the consistency of the most prevalent class, or the class prevalences themselves. A final cluster of errors concerns interpretation pitfalls, which may lead to incorrect conclusions based on agreement studies. These interpretation issues are clarified on the basis of the proposed statistical modelling. The signalled errors are illustrated from actual studies published in prestigious journals. The analysis results in a number of guidelines and recommendations for agreement studies, including the recommendation to use alternatives to the kappa index in certain situations

Observation of lobes near the X-point in resonant magnetic perturbation experiments on MAST

The application of non-axisymmetric resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) with a toroidal mode number n=6 in the MAST tokamak produces a significant reduction in plasma energy loss associated with type-I Edge Localized Modes (ELMs), the first such observation with n>3. During the ELM mitigated stage clear lobe structures are observed in visible-light imaging of the X-point region. These lobes or manifold structures, that were predicted previously, have been observed for the first time in a range of discharges and their appearance is correlated with the effect of RMPs on the plasma i.e. they only appear above a threshold when a density pump out is observed or when the ELM frequency is increased. They appear to be correlated with the RMPs penetrating the plasma and may be important in explaining why the ELM frequency increases. The number and location of the structures observed can be well described using vacuum modelling. Differences in radial extent and poloidal width from vacuum modelling are likely to be due to a combination of transport effects and plasma screening.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figure

Characterisation of the L-mode Scrape Off Layer in MAST: decay lengths

This work presents a detailed characterisation of the MAST Scrape Off Layer in L-mode. Scans in line averaged density, plasma current and toroidal magnetic field were performed. A comprehensive and integrated study of the SOL was allowed by the use of a wide range of diagnostics. In agreement with previous results, an increase of the line averaged density induced a broadening of the midplane density profile.Comment: 30 pages, 11 figure

Prediction of recurrent Clostridium difficile infection using comprehensive electronic medical records in an integrated healthcare delivery system

BACKGROUNDPredicting recurrentClostridium difficileinfection (rCDI) remains difficult. METHODS. We employed a retrospective cohort design. Granular electronic medical record (EMR) data had been collected from patients hospitalized at 21 Kaiser Permanente Northern California hospitals. The derivation dataset (2007–2013) included data from 9,386 patients who experienced incident CDI (iCDI) and 1,311 who experienced their first CDI recurrences (rCDI). The validation dataset (2014) included data from 1,865 patients who experienced incident CDI and 144 who experienced rCDI. Using multiple techniques, including machine learning, we evaluated more than 150 potential predictors. Our final analyses evaluated 3 models with varying degrees of complexity and 1 previously published model.RESULTSDespite having a large multicenter cohort and access to granular EMR data (eg, vital signs, and laboratory test results), none of the models discriminated well (c statistics, 0.591–0.605), had good calibration, or had good explanatory power.CONCLUSIONSOur ability to predict rCDI remains limited. Given currently available EMR technology, improvements in prediction will require incorporating new variables because currently available data elements lack adequate explanatory power.Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol2017;38:1196–1203</jats:sec

Flavor SU(3) breaking effects in the chiral unitary model for meson-baryon scatterings

We examine flavor SU(3) breaking effects on meson-baryon scattering amplitudes in the chiral unitary model. It turns out that the SU(3) breaking, which appears in the leading quark mass term in the chiral expansion, can not explain the channel dependence of the subtraction parameters of the model, which are crucial to reproduce the observed scattering amplitudes and resonance properties.Comment: RevTeX4, 4 pages, 3 figures, 2 table