Subjective beliefs formation and elicitation rules : experimental evidence

Since they have been increasingly used in economics, elicitation rules for subjective beliefs are under scrutiny. In this paper, we propose an experimental design to compare the performance of such rules. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a pure subjective belief framework (confidence in own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performances of elicitation rules are assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. For the perceptual task we also compare stated beliefs to Signal Detection Theory predictions. We find consistent evidence in favor of the Lottery Rule which provides more accurate beliefs and is not sensitive to risk aversion. Furthermore the Free Rule, a simple rule with no incentives, elicits relevant beliefs and even outperforms the Quadratic Scoring Rule. Beside this comparison, we propose a belief formation model where we distinguish between two stages in the beliefs : beliefs for decision making and confidence beliefs. Our results give support to this model.Belief elicitation, confidence, Signal Detection Theory, methodology, incentives, experimental economics.

Impact of information on intentions to vaccinate in a potential epidemic : swine-origin Influenza A (H1N1)

Vaccination campaigns to prevent the spread of epidemics are successful only if the targeted populations subscribe to the recommendations of health authorities. However, because compulsory vaccination is hardly conceivable in modern democracies, governments need to convince their populations through efficient and persuasive information campaigns. In the context of the swine-origin A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic, we use an interactive study among the general public in the South of France, with 175 participants, to explore what type of information can induce change in vaccination intentions at both aggregate and individual levels. We find that individual attitudes to vaccination are based on rational appraisal of the situation, and that it is information of a purely scientific nature that has the only significant positive effect on intention to vaccinate.France, experiment, interactive, information, vaccination, influenza A (H1N1), attitudes.

Impact of information on intentions to vaccinate in a potential epidemic: swine-origin Influenza A (H1N1)

Vaccination campaigns to prevent the spread of epidemics are successful only if the targeted populations subscribe to the recommendations of health authorities. However, because compulsory vaccination is hardly conceivable in modern democracies, governments need to convince their populations through efficient and persuasive information campaigns. In the context of the swine-origin A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic, we use an interactive study among the general public in the South of France, with 175 participants, to explore what type of information can induce change in vaccination intentions at both aggregate and individual levels. We find that individual attitudes to vaccination are based on rational appraisal of the situation, and that it is information of a purely scientific nature that has the only significant positive effect on intention to vaccinate.France; experiment; interactive; information; vaccination; influenza A (H1N1); attitudes

How to Improve Pupils' Literacy ? A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of a French Educational Project

The Action Lecture program is an innovative teaching method run in some nursery and primary schools in Paris and designed to improve pupils' literacy. We report the results of an evaluation of this program. We describe the experimental protocol that was built to estimate the program's impact on several types of indicators. Data were processed following a Differences-in-Differences (DID) method. Then we use the estimation of the impact on academic achievement to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis and take a reduction of the class size program as a benchmark. The results are positive for the Action Lecture program.Economics of education, evaluation, cost-effectiveness analysis, field experiment.

Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory

International audienceWe compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework

Which dissimilarity is to be used when extracting typologies in sequence analysis? A comparative study

International audienceOriginally developed in bioinformatics, sequence analysis is being increasingly used in social sciences for the study of life-course processes. The methodology generally employed consists in computing dissimilarities between the trajectories and, if typologies are sought, in clustering the trajectories according to their similarities or dissemblances. The choice of an appropriate dissimilarity measure is a major issue when dealing with sequence analysis for life sequences. Several dissimilarities are available in the literature, but neither of them succeeds to become indisputable. In this paper, instead of deciding upon one dissimilarity measure, we propose to use an optimal convex combination of different dissimilarities. The optimality is automatically determined by the clustering procedure and is defined with respect to the within-class variance

Apprendre à bien lire : une étude coût efficacité des Actions Lecture

URL des Documents de travail : http://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/bandeau-haut/documents-de-travail/Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2010.86 - ISSN : 1955-611XThis article presents a cost-effectiveness analysis of an innovative teaching method run in some nursery and primary schools in Paris. This project, named Action Lecture, is designed to improve pupils' abilities and taste on literacy. We report the results of an evaluation of this programm. We describe the experimental protocol that was built to estimate the program's impact on several types of indicators (academic abilities, attitude toward reading, school life) by comparing the evolution of treatment schools and control schools. Data were processed following a Differences-in-Differences (DID) method. Then we use the estimation of the impact on academic achievement to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis and take a reduction of the class size program as a benchmark. The results are positive for the Action Lecture program both in terms of impact's evaluation and in terms of cost-effectiveness ratio.Cet article présente une analyse coût-efficacité d'une action pédagogique menée dans les écoles primaires de la Ville de Paris. Ce dispositif, intitulé Actions Lecture, vise à développer les compétences et le goût pour la lecture des élèves. La mesure de l'impact de ce projet a été réalisé à partir d'une enquête menée au sein de différentes classes avant et après les Actions Lecture. L'estimation économétrique repose sur la méthode de différences-en-différences avec une comparaison entre l'évolution de différents indicateurs de résultats dans les classes ciblées et dans des classe contrôles. Ces indicateurs d'impacts portent sur l'attitude par rapport à la lecture, sur la vie de classe et sur trois compétences scolaires. L'évaluation conclut à un impact positif des Actions Lecture sur le rapport à la lecture et sur les compétences scolaires. De plus, le ratio-coût efficacité montre que cette méthode pédagogique est plus efficace que celui d'une mesure en termes de réduction de la taille de classe que l'on aurait pu obtenir en réaffectant les enseignants utilisés lors de ce dispositif

Career-path analysis using drifting Markov models (DMM) and self-organizing maps

Analyzing school-to-work transitions is an important challenge for the specialists of the labor-market. The aim of this paper is to study the insertion of graduates and to identify the main career-paths typologies. We introduce a new methodology for clustering career-paths by combining statistical estimation of non-homogeneous Markov chains with self-organizing maps. The proposed methodology is tested on real-life data issued from the survey ''Generation 98'' elaborated by CEREQ, France (http://www.cereq.fr/)Career paths, categorical data, drifting Markov model, self organizing maps

Apprendre à bien lire : une étude coût efficacité des Actions Lecture

Cet article présente une analyse coût-efficacité d'une action pédagogique menée dans les écoles primaires de la Ville de Paris. Ce dispositif, intitulé Actions Lecture, vise à développer les compétences et le goût pour la lecture des élèves. La mesure de l'impact de ce projet a été réalisé à partir d'une enquête menée au sein de différentes classes avant et après les Actions Lecture. L'estimation économétrique repose sur la méthode de différences-en-différences avec une comparaison entre l'évolution de différents indicateurs de résultats dans les classes ciblées et dans des classe contrôles. Ces indicateurs d'impacts portent sur l'attitude par rapport à la lecture, sur la vie de classe et sur trois compétences scolaires. L'évaluation conclut à un impact positif des Actions Lecture sur le rapport à la lecture et sur les compétences scolaires. De plus, le ratio-coût efficacité montre que cette méthode pédagogique est plus efficace que celui d'une mesure en termes de réduction de la taille de classe que l'on aurait pu obtenir en réaffectant les enseignants utilisés lors de ce dispositif.Economie de l'éducation, évaluation des politiques publiques, analyse coût-efficacité, expérience de terrain.

Integration-segregation decisions under general value functions : "Create your own bundle -- choose 1, 2, or all 3 !"

URL des Documents de travail : http://ces.univ-paris1.fr/cesdp/cesdp2012.htmlDocuments de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2012.57 - ISSN : 1955-611XWhether to keep products segregated (e.g., unbundled) or integrate some or all of them (e.g., bundle) has been a problem of profound interest in areas such as portfolio theory in finance, risk capital allocations in insurance, and marketing of consumer products. Such decisions are inherently complex and depend on factors such as the underlying product values and consumer preferences, the latter being frequently described using value functions, also known as utility functions in economics. In this paper, we develop decision rules for multiple products, which we generally call 'exposure units' to naturally cover manifold scenarios spanning well beyond 'products'. Our findings show, for example, that the celebrated Thaler's principles of mental accounting hold as originally postulated when the values of all exposure units are positive (i.e., all are gains) or all negative (i.e., all are losses). In the case of exposure units mixed-sign values, decision rules are much more complex and rely on cataloging the Bell-number of cases that grow very fast depending on the number of exposure units. Consequently, in the present paper we provide detailed rules for the integration and segregation decisions in the case up to three exposure units, and partial rules for the arbitrary number of units.Le choix de vendre des biens l'unité ou en "package" est un sujet d'intérêt dans de multiples applications telles que la théorie de portefeuille en finance, l'allocation du capital risque en assurance et le marketing de biens de consommation. De telles décisions sont complexes et dépendent de facteurs tels que la valeur sous-jacente des biens et les préférences des consommateurs. Dans cet article nous proposons des règles de décision pour des biens multiples et nous proposons une extension du fameux principe de Thaler de comptabilité mentale qui ne s'appliquait originellement qu'au cas de deux biens de même signe (gains ou pertes). Dans le cas de biens mixtes multiples, les décisions deviennent plus complexes et reposent sur les partitions des nombres de Bell qui augmentent de manière exponentielle avec le nombre de biens. Ainsi dans cet article, nous présentons des règles détaillées dans le choix d'intégrer ou de séparer trois biens ainsi que des règles partielles pour un nombre arbitraire de biens