Mathematical Modelling and Analysis of Treatment and Screening of Pneumonia

Pneumonia is one of the leading causes of serious illness and deaths among children under five years of age in Tanzania and around the world. In this paper, a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of pneumonia with screening and treatment is formulated and analysed with the aim of understanding its transmission dynamics and the effects of these interventions.........More details can be found in the full paper

The impact of non-tariff barriers on maize and beef trade in East Africa

On March 2, 2004, the East African Community (EAC) member states signed the protocol for the establishment of the East African Community Customs Union, which commits them, among others, to eliminate non-tariff barriers (NTBs) to increase intraregional trade. However, several NTBs are still applied by member states, raising concerns among policy makers and the business community. There is, however, no information about the magnitude of the impact of these NTBs. This study identifies the existing NTBs on maize and beef trade in East Africa and quantifies their impact on trade and the welfare of EAC citizens using a Spatial Equilibrium Model (SEM). Data on NTBs were collected from traders and transporters of maize and beef cattle in East Africa. In addition, the study found that the main types of NTBs within the three founding members of the EAC (Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda) are similar. They include administrative requirements (mainly licenses, municipal and council permits), taxes/duties (mainly excise and cess duty), roadblocks, customs barriers, weighbridges, licensing, corruption (e.g., through bribes) and transiting. The results of the welfare analysis vary across the three countries, but the net monetary gains are positive in all cases. A complete abolishment or a reduction of the existing NTBs in maize and beef trade increases intra-EAC maize and beef trade flows, with Kenya importing more maize from both Uganda and Tanzania, while Uganda’s beef exports to Kenya and Tanzania increase. As a result, positive net welfare gains are attained for the entire EAC maize and beef sub-sectors. In all cases, those who gain from the proposed reductions in NTBs can potentially compensate the losers, leading to potential improvements in welfare. These findings give compelling evidence in support of the elimination of NTBs within the EAC customs union. The study recommends taking a regional approach to eliminating the existing NTBs since they are similar across the member countries and across commodities so as to exploit economies of scale. Other policy recommendations include streamlining of administrative procedures at border points to improve efficiency, and speeding up the implementation of procedures at point of origin and at the border points. Finally, the study recommends the need to design and implement monitoring systems to provide feedback to the relevant authorities on the implementation of measures to remove unnecessary barriers to trade within the EAC region

The Ecorat project: development of ecologically-based rodent management for the southern African region

Mulungu, L.S., Belmain, S.R., Dlamini, N., Eiseb, S., Kirsten, F., Mahlaba, T., Makundi, R., Malebane, P., Von Maltitz, E., Massawe, A., Monadjem, A., Taylor, P., Tutjavi, V

Survival and recruitment of the multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis (Smith 1834), in a rice agro-ecosystem

We investigated the recruitment and survival of the multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis, within irrigated rice and fallow field habitats at different time periods related to rice crop growth stages. Capture-Mark-Recapture data were collected for M . natalensis each month from June 2010 to May 2012, and both recruitment and survival were estimated in relation to land use (irrigated rice or fallow field) within the agro-ecosystem. Higher recruitment and survival were observed in rice fields than in fallow fields suggesting the relationship was compensatory when there was a higher quality food resource. In terms of management, farmers in the study area should implement management strategies in rice fields at both transplanting and maturity stages of crop growth in order to maintain recruitment and survival at low levels

Relationships between seasonal changes in diet of multimammate rat (Mastomys natalensis) and its breeding patterns in semi-arid areas in Tanzania

The diet and breeding patterns of Mastomys natalensis in semi-arid areas of Isimani division, Iringa region, Tanzania were investigated in maize fields and fallow land. The aim was to investigate the influence of diet on breeding patterns of M. natalensis. Removal trapping was used to capture rodents and analyse diet categories while Capture-mark-release trapping was used to investigate breeding patterns of female M. natalensis. Mastomys natalensis comprised 94%of the total capture, and the remaining 6% comprised of six other species. Statistical analysis of food preferences indicated that both vegetative materials and seeds were significantly higher in the overall diet of M. natalensis compared with other food materials. Significant differences in the proportions of vegetativematerials and seeds were found between seasons (dry, wet), but not between habitats (fallow, maize). There was a clear seasonal pattern in the proportion of reproductively active females with peaks in April and troughs in October. The proportion of vegetative materialswas highest during thewet season and correlated positively with reproductive activity, suggesting that vegetative materials contain certain compounds (e.g. 6-MBOA) that trigger reproductive activity in M. natalensis. The breeding activity of M. natalensis in semi-arid areas might, thus, be reduced by limiting access to fresh vegetative food (e.g. young sprouting grass)

Smallholder Farmers’ Perspectives on Climatic Variability and Adaptation Strategies in East Africa: The Case of Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania, Taita and Machakos Hills in Kenya

Climate change is expected to have serious economic and social impacts in East Africa, particularly on rural farmers whose livelihoods largely depend on rain-fed agriculture, hence adaptation is required to offset projected drawbacks of climate change on crop productivity. This paper examines farmers' perceptions and understanding of climatic variability, coping strategies adopted and factors that influence the choice of a particular adaptation. The study uses cross section data collected from 510 farmers in three mountain gradients sites, namely; Mount Kilimanjaro of Tanzania, Taita and Machakos Hills of Kenya. Farmers’ perceptions were compared to actual trend in meteorological records over the last thirty years (1981-2010). The result revealed that farmers in East Africa were partly aware of climate variability, mainly in temperature and rainfall patterns. Many respondents reported that conditions are drier and rainfall timing is becoming less predictable. The perception of farmers on temperature and rainfall were in line with recorded meteorological data, but contrary with that of recorded rainfall in Machakos which was perceived to be decreasing by the farmers. Farmers perceived changes in rainfall and temperature to have negative effects on the production and management of crops. The common adaptation strategies used by farmers include water harvesting, soil conservation techniques and shifting of planting periods. The most important variables affecting farmers choices in regards to adaptation option were, lack of access to credit, farming experience and household size. As a conclusion, there is a need for these factors to be taken into account in the development and implementation of smallholder farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate variability in East Africa. Additionally, dedicated capacity building and extensive outreach initiatives on adaptation through governments, researchers, policy-makers and the farmers groups themselves are needed to achieve large scale success