Information Misweighting and Stock Recommendations

I provide evidence that analysts whose earnings forecast revisions showed signs of greater exaggeration in the past make recommendation changes that lead to lower abnormal returns than their peers. Interpreting stock recommendations as a forecast of future abnormal returns, I show that this evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that analysts who typically exaggerate or overstate the weight of their private information when issuing forecasts also do so when making recommendations. I also show that past earnings forecast provide incremental information about analysts' recommending behavior beyond that contained in past recommendations.Information misweighting; stock recommendations; earnings forecasts; financial analysts

Global survey of development banks

Historically, development banks have been an important instrument of governments to promote economic growth by providing credit and a wide range of advisory and capacity building programs to households, small and medium enterprises, and even large private corporations, whose financial needs are not sufficiently served by private commercial banks or local capital markets. During the current financial crisis, most development banks in Latin America, followed by Asia, Africa, and Europe, have assumed a countercyclical role by scaling up their lending operations exactly when private banks experienced temporary difficulties in granting credit to the private sector. Despite the importance of development banks during crisis and non-crisis periods, little is known about them. This survey examines how development banks operate, what their policy mandates are, what financial services they offer, which type of clients they target, how they are regulated and supervised, what business models they have adopted, what governance framework they have, and what challenges they face. It also examines the countercyclical role played by development banks during the recent financial crisis. This survey is based on new data that have been collected from 90 national development banks in 61 countries.Banks&Banking Reform,Access to Finance,Debt Markets,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress,Emerging Markets

Cross-layer Balanced and Reliable Opportunistic Routing Algorithm for Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

For improving the efficiency and the reliability of the opportunistic routing algorithm, in this paper, we propose the cross-layer and reliable opportunistic routing algorithm (CBRT) for Mobile Ad Hoc Networks, which introduces the improved efficiency fuzzy logic and humoral regulation inspired topology control into the opportunistic routing algorithm. In CBRT, the inputs of the fuzzy logic system are the relative variance (rv) of the metrics rather than the values of the metrics, which reduces the number of fuzzy rules dramatically. Moreover, the number of fuzzy rules does not increase when the number of inputs increases. For reducing the control cost, in CBRT, the node degree in the candidate relays set is a range rather than a constant number. The nodes are divided into different categories based on their node degree in the candidate relays set. The nodes adjust their transmission range based on which categories that they belong to. Additionally, for investigating the effection of the node mobility on routing performance, we propose a link lifetime prediction algorithm which takes both the moving speed and moving direction into account. In CBRT, the source node determines the relaying priorities of the relaying nodes based on their utilities. The relaying node which the utility is large will have high priority to relay the data packet. By these innovations, the network performance in CBRT is much better than that in ExOR, however, the computation complexity is not increased in CBRT.Comment: 14 pages, 17 figures, 31 formulas, IEEE Sensors Journal, 201

Institutional Investor Expectations, Manager Performance, and Fund Flows

Using survey data we analyze institutional investors’ expectations about the future performance of fund managers and the impact of these expectations on asset allocation decisions. Past performance is a driver of both plan sponsors’ expectations of fund managers’ future performance and of the flows into (and out of) those fund managers, although it is not informative about their future performance. The non-performance attributes of funds drive expectations but do not drive flows, while investment consultants’ recommendations are critical to flows but have only a minor impact on expectations. Our findings suggest that, when plan sponsors allocate assets, they do not act fully on their expectations, but prefer to base their decisions on more defensible variables at their disposal

Experiencia docente en el Gobierno y Gestión TI

La implantación de los grados ha provocado la aparición de nuevas asignaturas cuyas competencias no se abordaban anteriormente y sobre cuya formación no se tiene referencia, o se tiene muy poca, en nuestras áreas. Los contenidos de estas asignaturas pueden poseer un calado atípico para un Ingeniero Informático ya que aspectos como legislación internacional, gestión de recursos humanos, responsabilidad ética o impacto social no se abordaban en planes antiguos, además de alejarse bastante de las asignaturas más tradicionales. Estos nuevos contenidos requieren de nuevas metodologías docentes, tanto dentro como fuera del aula, y de formas de evaluación donde se consiga implicar al alumnado en un verdadero proceso de evaluación continua. En este trabajo exponemos nuestra experiencia docente en la asignatura Gestión y Gobierno de las Tecnologías de la Información donde se han aplicado distintas técnicas colaborativas como son los debates, exposiciones y defensas temáticas, el uso del portafolio público como herramienta central de seguimiento y la propia implicación del alumnado para consensuar el baremo evaluador. Este planteamiento docente ha generado un entorno en el que el profesorado no dirige sino cataliza el aprendizaje, obteniendo resultados muy satisfactorios tanto para el alumnado como para el profesorado

Model of Competencies for Decomposition of Human Behavior: Application to Control System of Robots

Humans and machines have shared the same physical space for many years. To share the same space, we want the robots to behave like human beings. This will facilitate their social integration, their interaction with humans and create an intelligent behavior. To achieve this goal, we need to understand how human behavior is generated, analyze tasks running our nerves and how they relate to them. Then and only then can we implement these mechanisms in robotic beings. In this study, we propose a model of competencies based on human neuroregulator system for analysis and decomposition of behavior into functional modules. Using this model allow separate and locate the tasks to be implemented in a robot that displays human-like behavior. As an example, we show the application of model to the autonomous movement behavior on unfamiliar environments and its implementation in various simulated and real robots with different physical configurations and physical devices of different nature. The main result of this study has been to build a model of competencies that is being used to build robotic systems capable of displaying behaviors similar to humans and consider the specific characteristics of robots