Comprehensive space-time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin

Estimates for rare to very rare floods are limited by the relatively short streamflow records available. Often, pragmatic conversion factors are used to quantify such events based on extrapolated observations, or simplifying assumptions are made about extreme precipitation and resulting flood peaks. Continuous simulation (CS) is an alternative approach that better links flood estimation with physical processes and avoids assumptions about antecedent conditions. However, long-term CS has hardly been implemented to estimate rare floods (i.e. return periods considerably larger than 100 years) at multiple sites in a large river basin to date. Here we explore the feasibility and reliability of the CS approach for 19 sites in the Aare River basin in Switzerland (area: 17 700 km2) with exceedingly long simulations in a hydrometeorological model chain. The chain starts with a multi-site stochastic weather generator used to generate 30 realizations of hourly precipitation and temperature scenarios of 10 000 years each. These realizations were then run through a bucket-type hydrological model for 80 sub-catchments and finally routed downstream with a simplified representation of main river channels, major lakes and relevant floodplains in a hydrologic routing system. Comprehensive evaluation over different temporal and spatial scales showed that the main features of the meteorological and hydrological observations are well represented and that meaningful information on low-probability floods can be inferred. Although uncertainties are still considerable, the explicit consideration of important processes of flood generation and routing (snow accumulation, snowmelt, soil moisture storage, bank overflow, lake and floodplain retention) is a substantial advantage. The approach allows for comprehensively exploring possible but unobserved spatial and temporal patterns of hydrometeorological behaviour. This is of particular value in a large river basin where the complex interaction of flows from individual tributaries and lake regulations are typically not well represented in the streamflow observations. The framework is also suitable for estimating more frequent floods, as often required in engineering and hazard mapping

Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin

Estimates for rare to very rare floods are limited by the relatively short streamflow records available. Often, pragmatic conversion factors are used to quantify such events based on extrapolated observations, or simplifying assumptions are made about extreme precipitation and resulting flood peaks. Continuous simulation (CS) is an alternative approach that better links flood estimation with physical processes and avoids assumptions about antecedent conditions. However, long-term CS has hardly been implemented to estimate rare floods (i.e. return periods considerably larger than 100 years) at multiple sites in a large river basin to date. Here we explore the feasibility and reliability of the CS approach for 19 sites in the Aare River basin in Switzerland (area: 17 700 km2) with exceedingly long simulations in a hydrometeorological model chain. The chain starts with a multi-site stochastic weather generator used to generate 30 realizations of hourly precipitation and temperature scenarios of 10 000 years each. These realizations were then run through a bucket-type hydrological model for 80 sub-catchments and finally routed downstream with a simplified representation of main river channels, major lakes and relevant floodplains in a hydrologic routing system. Comprehensive evaluation over different temporal and spatial scales showed that the main features of the meteorological and hydrological observations are well represented and that meaningful information on low-probability floods can be inferred. Although uncertainties are still considerable, the explicit consideration of important processes of flood generation and routing (snow accumulation, snowmelt, soil moisture storage, bank overflow, lake and floodplain retention) is a substantial advantage. The approach allows for comprehensively exploring possible but unobserved spatial and temporal patterns of hydrometeorological behaviour. This is of particular value in a large river basin where the complex interaction of flows from individual tributaries and lake regulations are typically not well represented in the streamflow observations. The framework is also suitable for estimating more frequent floods, as often required in engineering and hazard mapping

Career-Success Scale – A new instrument to assess young physicians' academic career steps

Background: Within the framework of a prospective cohort study of Swiss medical school graduates, a Career-Success Scale (CSS) was constructed in a sample of young physicians choosing different career paths in medicine. Furthermore the influence of personality factors, the participants' personal situation, and career related factors on their career success was investigated. Methods: 406 residents were assessed in terms of career aspired to, and their career progress. The Career-Success Scale, consisting of 7 items, was developed and validated, addressing objective criteria of academic career advancement. The influence of gender and career aspiration was investigated by a two-factorial analysis of variance, the relationships between personality factors, personal situation, career related factors and the Career-Success Scale by a multivariate linear regression analysis. Results: The unidimensional Career-Success Scale has an internal consistency of 0.76. It is significantly correlated at the bivariate level with gender, instrumentality, and all career related factors, particularly with academic career and received mentoring. In multiple regression, only gender, academic career, surgery as chosen specialty, and received mentoring are significant predictors. The highest values were observed in participants aspiring to an academic career, followed by those pursuing a hospital career and those wanting to run a private practice. Independent of the career aspired to, female residents have lower scores than their male colleagues. Conclusion: The Career-Success Scale proved to be a short, reliable and valid instrument to measure career achievements. As mentoring is an independent predictor of career success, mentoring programs could be an important instrument to specifically enhance careers of female physicians in academia

Femtosecond Laser-Processing of Pre-Anodized Ti-Based Bone Implants for Cell-Repellent Functionalization

Microstructures and nanostructures can be used to reduce the adhesion of the cells on the auxiliary material. Therefore, the aim of our work was to fabricate laser-induced hierarchical microstructures and nanostructures by femtosecond laser-treatment (wavelength 1040 nm, pulse length 350 fs, repetition rates in the kHz range) to reduce the cell adhesion. Additionally, surface chemistry modification by optimized electrochemical anodization was used to further reduce the cell adhesion. For testing, flat plates and bone screws made of Ti-6Al-4V were used. Bone-forming cells (human osteoblasts from the cell line SAOS-2) were grown on the bone implants and additional test samples for two to three weeks. After the growth period, the cells were characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). While earlier experiments with fibroblasts had shown that femtosecond laser-processing followed by electrochemical anodization had a significant impact on cell adhesion reduction, for osteoblasts the same conditions resulted in an activation of the cells with increased production of extracellular matrix material. Significant reduction of cell adhesion for osteoblasts was only obtained at pre-anodized surfaces. It could be demonstrated that this functionalization by means of femtosecond laser-processing can result in bone screws that hinder the adhesion of osteoblasts

A lean magnesium–zinc–calcium alloy ZX00 used for bone fracture stabilization in a large growing-animal model

Over the last decade, demand has increased for developing new, alternative materials in pediatric trauma care to overcome the disadvantages associated with conventional implant materials. Magnesium (Mg)-based alloys seem to adequately fulfill the vision of a homogeneously resorbable, biocompatible, load-bearing and functionally supportive implant. The aim of the present study is to introduce the high-strength, lean alloy Mg‒0.45Zn‒0.45Ca, in wt% (ZX00), and for the first time investigate the clinical applicability of screw osteosynthesis using this alloy that contains no rare-earth elements. The alloy was applied in a growing sheep model with osteotomized bone (simulating a fracture) and compared to a non-osteotomy control group regarding degradation behavior and fracture healing. The alloy exhibits an ultimate tensile strength of 285.7 ± 3.1 MPa, an elongation at fracture of 18.2 ± 2.1%, and a reduced in vitro degradation rate compared to alloys containing higher amounts of Zn. In vivo, no significant difference between the osteotomized bone and the control group was found regarding the change in screw volume over implantation time. Therefore, it can be concluded that the fracture healing process, including its effects on the surrounding area, has no significant influence on degradation behavior. There was also no negative influence from hydrogen-gas formation on fracture healing. Despite the proximal and distal screws showing chronologically different gas release, the osteotomy showed complete consolidation. Statement of Significance Conventional implants involve several disadvantages in pediatric trauma care. Magnesium-based alloys seem to overcome these issues as discussed in the recent literature. This study evaluates the clinical applicability of high-strength lean Mg‒0.45Zn‒0.45Ca (ZX00) screws in a growing-sheep model. Two groups, one including a simulated fracture and one group without fracture, underwent implantation of the alloy and were compared to each other. No significant difference regarding screw volume was observed between the groups. There was no negative influence of hydrogen-gas formation on fracture healing and a complete fracture consolidation was found after 12 weeks for all animals investigated.ISSN:1742-7061ISSN:1878-756

Comprehensive space-time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin

International audienceEstimates for rare to very rare floods are limited by the relatively short streamflow records available. Often, pragmatic conversion factors are used to quantify such events based on extrapolated observations, or simplifying assumptions are made about extreme precipitation and resulting flood peaks. Continuous simulation (CS) is an alternative approach that better links flood estimation with physical processes and avoids assumptions about antecedent conditions. However, long-term CS has hardly been implemented to estimate rare floods (i.e., return periods considerably larger than 100 years) at multiple sites in a large river basin to date. Here we explore the feasibility and reliability of the CS approach for 19 sites in the Aare River basin in Switzerland (area: 17 700 km2) with exceedingly long simulations in a hydrometeorological model chain. The chain starts with a multi-site stochastic weather generator used to generate 30 realisations of hourly precipitation and temperature scenarios of 10 000 years each. These realisations were then run through a bucket-type hydrological model for 79 sub-catchments and finally routed downstream with a simplified representation of main river channels, major lakes and relevant floodplains in a hydrologic routing system. Comprehensive evaluation over different temporal and spatial scales showed that the main features of the meteorological and hydrological observations are well represented, and that meaningful information on low-probability floods can be inferred. Although uncertainties are still considerable, the explicit consideration of important processes of flood generation and routing (snow accumulation, snowmelt, soil moisture storage, bank overflow, lake and floodplain retention) is a substantial advantage. The approach allows to comprehensively explore possible but unobserved spatial and temporal patterns of hydrometeorological behaviour. This is of particular value in a large river basin where the complex interaction of flows from individual tributaries and lake regulations are typically not well represented in the streamflow observations. The framework is also suitable for estimating more frequent floods, as often required in engineering and hazard mapping

Comprehensive space-time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin

International audienceEstimates for rare to very rare floods are limited by the relatively short streamflow records available. Often, pragmatic conversion factors are used to quantify such events based on extrapolated observations, or simplifying assumptions are made about extreme precipitation and resulting flood peaks. Continuous simulation (CS) is an alternative approach that better links flood estimation with physical processes and avoids assumptions about antecedent conditions. However, long-term CS has hardly been implemented to estimate rare floods (i.e. return periods considerably larger than 100 years) at multiple sites in a large river basin to date. Here we explore the feasibility and reliability of the CS approach for 19 sites in the Aare River basin in Switzerland (area: 17 700 km2) with exceedingly long simulations in a hydrometeorological model chain. The chain starts with a multi-site stochastic weather generator used to generate 30 realizations of hourly precipitation and temperature scenarios of 10 000 years each. These realizations were then run through a bucket-type hydrological model for 80 sub-catchments and finally routed downstream with a simplified representation of main river channels, major lakes and relevant floodplains in a hydrologic routing system. Comprehensive evaluation over different temporal and spatial scales showed that the main features of the meteorological and hydrological observations are well represented and that meaningful information on low-probability floods can be inferred. Although uncertainties are still considerable, the explicit consideration of important processes of flood generation and routing (snow accumulation, snowmelt, soil moisture storage, bank overflow, lake and floodplain retention) is a substantial advantage. The approach allows for comprehensively exploring possible but unobserved spatial and temporal patterns of hydrometeorological behaviour. This is of particular value in a large river basin where the complex interaction of flows from individual tributaries and lake regulations are typically not well represented in the streamflow observations. The framework is also suitable for estimating more frequent floods, as often required in engineering and hazard mapping

Paleo‐Hydrogeological Modeling to Understand Present‐Day Groundwater Salinities in a Low‐Lying Coastal Groundwater System (Northwestern Germany)

Groundwater abstraction and drainage are considered to be the main drivers for the salinization of low‐lying coastal groundwater systems, while the role of past boundary conditions is less clear. In this study, 3‐D paleo‐hydrogeological variable‐density groundwater flow and salt transport modeling (“paleo‐modeling”) is applied to reconstruct the evolution of groundwater salinities during the Holocene, that is, the last 9,000 years, in Northwestern Germany. Novel aspects of this study include the consideration of highly resolved time‐variant boundary conditions in a 3‐D paleo‐modeling framework, for example, sea‐level rise, surface elevation and coastline changes, development of drainage networks and groundwater abstraction, as well as the quantification of isolated processes impacting salinization. Results show that salinization was a function of sea‐level rise from 9000 BP until 1300 CE. The creation of the dike line ∼1300 CE set the starting point for increasing anthropogenic control of the hydro(geo)logical system: changes in surface elevation and drainage of low‐lying marshes have become main drivers for salinization after 1600 CE when peat was artificially degenerated. Moreover, changes in the dike line caused by storm floods impacted the salinities. Model results for 2020 CE match well with present‐day salinity observations. Yet, salinization will continue in the future, as the hydro(geo)logical system has not reached an equilibrium. The presented paleo‐modeling framework can be viewed as a blueprint for similar low‐lying coastal groundwater systems, influenced by marine transgression and human development. Thereby, it enables the reconstruction of meaningful present‐day salinity distributions, serving as a vital basis for modeling future groundwater systems in a changing climate.Key Points: Salinization of a low‐lying coastal groundwater system during the Holocene, that is, 9000 BP until present‐day, was investigated. Sea‐level rise and the evolution of paleogeography were major controls on groundwater salinization during most of the time. Surface elevation changes due to land cultivation, as well as the development of drainage networks, control salinization since ∼1600 CE.Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.763338