Assessing the contribution of ecosystem services to human wellbeing: A disaggregated study in western Rwanda

AbstractLack of attention to social complexity has created a gap between current ecosystem service research and the kind of insights needed to inform ecosystem management in the tropics. To contribute to closing this gap, this study applies a methodology for exploring complex linkages between ecosystem services and human wellbeing. This builds on emerging frameworks for studying multiple dimensions of human wellbeing, drawing on Amartya Sen's capabilities approach to human development. The approach is applied to an empirical case study of three sites adjacent to native tropical forest in western Rwanda. The value of exploring social complexity in ecosystem services research is illustrated through its contribution to understanding a) different types of values; b) disaggregation of people; c) power relations and their influence on trade-offs; d) the importance of multiple land use types in the landscape; and e) changes and their drivers at multiple scales. The analysis reveals that the majority of services valued by forest-adjacent Rwandan inhabitants are not provided by tropical forests but by other habitats. We suggest that more integrated landscape governance may offer synergistic opportunities for conservation and development

Knowledge Representation Concepts for Automated SLA Management

Outsourcing of complex IT infrastructure to IT service providers has increased substantially during the past years. IT service providers must be able to fulfil their service-quality commitments based upon predefined Service Level Agreements (SLAs) with the service customer. They need to manage, execute and maintain thousands of SLAs for different customers and different types of services, which needs new levels of flexibility and automation not available with the current technology. The complexity of contractual logic in SLAs requires new forms of knowledge representation to automatically draw inferences and execute contractual agreements. A logic-based approach provides several advantages including automated rule chaining allowing for compact knowledge representation as well as flexibility to adapt to rapidly changing business requirements. We suggest adequate logical formalisms for representation and enforcement of SLA rules and describe a proof-of-concept implementation. The article describes selected formalisms of the ContractLog KR and their adequacy for automated SLA management and presents results of experiments to demonstrate flexibility and scalability of the approach.Comment: Paschke, A. and Bichler, M.: Knowledge Representation Concepts for Automated SLA Management, Int. Journal of Decision Support Systems (DSS), submitted 19th March 200

Structural Macro-Econometric Modelling in a Policy Environment

The paper looks at the development of macroeconometric models over the past sixty years. In particular those that have been used for analysing policy options. We argue that there have been four generations of these. Each generation has evolved new features that have been partly drawn from the developing academic literature and partly from the perceived weaknesses in the previous generation. Overall the evolution has been governed by a desire to answer a set of basic questions and sometimes by what can be achieved using new computational methods. Our account of each generation considers their design, the way in which parameters were quantified and how they were evaluated.DSGE models;Phillips Curve;Macroeconometric Models;Bayesian Estimation

Structural macro-econometric modelling in a policy environment

In this paper we review the evolution of macroeconomic modelling in a policy environment that took place over the past sixty years. We identify and characterise four generations of macro models. Particular attention is paid to the fourth generation -- dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We discuss some of the problems in how these models are implemented and quantified.

Limited Information Estimation and Evaluation of DSGE Models. Working paper #6

We advance the proposal that DSGE models should not just be estimated and evaluated with reference to full information methods. These make strong assumptions and therefore there is uncertainty about their impact upon results. Some limited information analysis which can be used in a complementary way seems important. Because it is sometimes difficult to implement limited information methods when there are unobservable non-stationary variables in the system we present a simple method of overcoming this that involves normalizing the non-stationary variables with their permanent components and then estimating the estimating the resulting Euler equations. We illustrate the interaction between full and limited information methods in the context of a well-known open economy model of Lubik and Schorfheide. The transformation was effective in revealing possible mis-specifications in the equations of LS\'s system and the limited information analysis highlighted the role of priors in having a major influence upon the estimates.

Issues in Adopting DSGE Models for Use in the Policy Process

Our discussion is structured by three concerns - model design, matching the data and operational requirements. The paper begins with a general discussion of the structure of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models where we investigate issues like (i) the type of restrictions being imposed by DSGE models upon system dynamics, (ii) the implication these models would have for 'location parameters', viz. growth rates, and (iii) whether these models can track the long-run movements in variables as well as matching dynamic adjustment. The paper further looks at the types of models that have been constructed in central banks for macro policy analysis. We distinguish four generations of these and detail how the emerging current generation, which are often referred to as DSGE models, differs from the previous generations. The last part of the paper is devoted to a variety of topics involving estimation and evaluation of DSGE models.DSGE model, Bayesian estimation, model evaluation.

Can agents without concepts think? an investigation using a knowledge based system

Grid-World is a working computer model which has been used to investigate the search capabilities of artificial agents that understand the world in terms of non-conceptual content. The results from this model show that the non-conceptual agent outperformed the stimulus response agent, and both were outperformed by the conceptual agent. This result provides quantitative evidence to support the theoretical argument that animals and pre-linguistic children may use non-conceptual content to understand the world. Modelling these ideas in an artificial environment provides an opportunity for a new approach to artificial intelligence

Solving Spectrum Gridlock: Reforms to Liberalize Radio Spectrum Management in Canada in the Face of Growing Scarcity

Canada lags other countries in solving the problem of spectrum scarcity amid rising demand driven by cellphones and other wireless products. In this study, the authors call for reforms to liberalize the allocation of spectrum in Canada with a market-based approach, to increase competition, for the benefit of consumers and other end users.Economic Growth and Innovation, radio spectrum, wireless technology, Industry Canada