Model Based Mission Assurance: NASA's Assurance Future

Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is seeing increased application in planning and design of NASAs missions. This suggests the question: what will be the corresponding practice of Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA)? Contemporaneously, NASAs Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) is evaluating a new objectives based approach to standards to ensure that the Safety and Mission Assurance disciplines and programs are addressing the challenges of NASAs changing missions, acquisition and engineering practices, and technology. MBSE is a prominent example of a changing engineering practice. We use NASAs objectives-based strategy for Reliability and Maintainability as a means to examine how MBSE will affect assurance. We surveyed MBSE literature to look specifically for these affects, and find a variety of them discussed (some are anticipated, some are reported from applications to date). Predominantly these apply to the early stages of design, although there are also extrapolations of how MBSE practices will have benefits for testing phases. As the effort to develop MBMA continues, it will need to clearly and unambiguously establish the roles of uncertainty and risk in the system model. This will enable a variety of uncertainty-based analyses to be performed much more rapidly than ever before and has the promise to increase the integration of CRM (Continuous Risk Management) and PRA (Probabilistic Risk Analyses) even more fully into the project development life cycle. Various views and viewpoints will be required for assurance disciplines, and an over-arching viewpoint will then be able to more completely characterize the state of the project/program as well as (possibly) enabling the safety case approach for overall risk awareness and communication

Do Housing Submarkets Really Matter?

We maintain that the appropriate definition of submarkets depends on the use to which they will be put. For mass appraisal purposes, submarkets should be defined so that the accuracy of hedonic predictions will be optimized. Thus we test whether out-of-sample hedonic value predictions can be improved when a large urban housing market is divided into submarkets and we explore the effects of alternative definitions of submarkets on the accuracy of predictions. We compare a set of submarkets based on small geographical areas defined by real estate appraisers with a set of statistically generated submarkets consisting of dwellings that are similar but not necessarily contiguous. The empirical analysis uses a transactions database from Auckland, New Zealand. Price predictions are found to be most accurate when based on the housing market segmentation used by appraisers. We conclude that housing submarkets matter, and location plays the major role in explaining why they matter.Housing; Submarkets; Price Predictions; Mass Appraisal; Hedonic Method

Light-induced switching between singlet and triplet superconducting states

While the search for topological triplet-pairing superconductivity has remained a challenge, recent developments in optically stabilizing metastable superconducting states suggest a new route to realizing this elusive phase. Here, we devise a testable theory of competing superconducting orders that permits ultrafast switching to an opposite-parity superconducting phase in centrosymmetric crystals with strong spin-orbit coupling. Using both microscopic and phenomenological models, we show that dynamical inversion symmetry breaking with a tailored light pulse can induce odd-parity (spin triplet) order parameter oscillations in a conventional even-parity (spin singlet) superconductor, which when driven strongly can send the system to a competing minimum in its free energy landscape. Our results provide new guiding principles for engineering unconventional electronic phases using light, suggesting a fundamentally non-equilibrium route toward realizing topological superconductivity

Enabling Assurance in the MBSE Environment

A number of specific benefits that fit within the hallmarks of effective development are realized with implementation of model-based approaches to systems and assurance. Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) enabled by standardized modeling languages (e.g., SysML) is at the core. These benefits in the context of spaceflight system challenges can include: Improved management of complex development, Reduced risk in the development process, Improved cost management, Improved design decisions. With appropriate modeling techniques the assurance community can improve early oversight and insight into project development. NASA has shown the basic constructs of SysML in an MBSE environment offer several key advantages, within a Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA) initiative

The chiral and flavour projection of Dirac-Kahler fermions in the geometric discretization

It is shown that an exact chiral symmetry can be described for Dirac-Kahler fermions using the two complexes of the geometric discretization. This principle is extended to describe exact flavour projection and it is shown that this necessitates the introduction of a new operator and two new structures of complex. To describe simultaneous chiral and flavour projection, eight complexes are needed in all and it is shown that projection leaves a single flavour of chiral field on each.Comment: v2: 17 pages, Latex. 5 images eps. Added references, reformatted and clarification of some point

Model Based Mission Assurance in a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) Framework: State-of-the-Art Assessment

This report explores the current state of the art of Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) in projects that have shifted towards Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE). Its goal is to provide insight into how NASA's Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) should respond to this shift. In MBSE, systems engineering information is organized and represented in models: rigorous computer-based representations, which collectively make many activities easier to perform, less error prone, and scalable. S&MA practices must shift accordingly. The "Objective Structure Hierarchies" recently developed by OSMA provide the framework for understanding this shift. Although the objectives themselves will remain constant, S&MA practices (activities, processes, tools) to achieve them are subject to change. This report presents insights derived from literature studies and interviews. The literature studies gleaned assurance implications from reports of space-related applications of MBSE. The interviews with knowledgeable S&MA and MBSE personnel discovered concerns and ideas for how assurance may adapt. Preliminary findings and observations are presented on the state of practice of S&MA with respect to MBSE, how it is already changing, and how it is likely to change further. Finally, recommendations are provided on how to foster the evolution of S&MA to best fit with MBSE

Fusing Quantitative Requirements Analysis with Model-based Systems Engineering

A vision is presented for fusing quantitative requirements analysis with model-based systems engineering. This vision draws upon and combines emergent themes in the engineering milieu. “Requirements engineering” provides means to explicitly represent requirements (both functional and non-functional) as constraints and preferences on acceptable solutions, and emphasizes early-lifecycle review, analysis and verification of design and development plans. “Design by shopping” emphasizes revealing the space of options available from which to choose (without presuming that all selection criteria have previously been elicited), and provides means to make understandable the range of choices and their ramifications. “Model-based engineering” emphasizes the goal of utilizing a formal representation of all aspects of system design, from development through operations, and provides powerful tool suites that support the practical application of these principles. A first step prototype towards this vision is described, embodying the key capabilities. Illustrations, implications, further challenges and opportunities are outlined

When Can You Fold a Map?

We explore the following problem: given a collection of creases on a piece of paper, each assigned a folding direction of mountain or valley, is there a flat folding by a sequence of simple folds? There are several models of simple folds; the simplest one-layer simple fold rotates a portion of paper about a crease in the paper by +-180 degrees. We first consider the analogous questions in one dimension lower -- bending a segment into a flat object -- which lead to interesting problems on strings. We develop efficient algorithms for the recognition of simply foldable 1D crease patterns, and reconstruction of a sequence of simple folds. Indeed, we prove that a 1D crease pattern is flat-foldable by any means precisely if it is by a sequence of one-layer simple folds. Next we explore simple foldability in two dimensions, and find a surprising contrast: ``map'' folding and variants are polynomial, but slight generalizations are NP-complete. Specifically, we develop a linear-time algorithm for deciding foldability of an orthogonal crease pattern on a rectangular piece of paper, and prove that it is (weakly) NP-complete to decide foldability of (1) an orthogonal crease pattern on a orthogonal piece of paper, (2) a crease pattern of axis-parallel and diagonal (45-degree) creases on a square piece of paper, and (3) crease patterns without a mountain/valley assignment.Comment: 24 pages, 19 figures. Version 3 includes several improvements thanks to referees, including formal definitions of simple folds, more figures, table summarizing results, new open problems, and additional reference

Fluctuating geometries, q-observables, and infrared growth in inflationary spacetimes

Infrared growth of geometrical fluctuations in inflationary spacetimes is investigated. The problem of gauge-invariant characterization of growth of perturbations, which is of interest also in other spacetimes such as black holes, is addressed by studying evolution of the lengths of curves in the geometry. These may either connect freely falling "satellites," or wrap non-trivial cycles of geometries like the torus, and are also used in diffeomorphism- invariant constructions of two-point functions of field operators. For spacelike separations significantly exceeding the Hubble scale, no spacetime geodesic connects two events, but one may find geodesics constrained to lie within constant-time spatial slices. In inflationary geometries, metric perturbations produce significant and growing corrections to the lengths of such geodesics, as we show in both quantization on an inflating torus and in standard slow-roll inflation. These become large, signaling breakdown of a perturbative description of the geometry via such observables, and consistent with perturbative instability of de Sitter space. In particular, we show that the geodesic distance on constant time slices during inflation becomes non-perturbative a few e-folds after a given scale has left the horizon, by distances \sim 1/H^3 \sim RS, obstructing use of such geodesics in constructing IR-safe observables based on the spatial geometry. We briefly discuss other possible measures of such geometrical fluctuations.Comment: 33 pages, 2 figures, latex; v2: typos corrected, references improve