How do governments respond after catastrophes ? natural-disaster shocks and the fiscal stance

Natural disasters could constitute a major shock to public finances and debt sustainability because of their impact on output and the need for reconstruction and relief expenses. This paper uses a panel vector autoregressive model to systematically estimate the impact of geological, climatic, and other types of natural disasters on government expenditures and revenues using annual data for high and middle-income countries over 1975-2008. The authors find that, on average budget, deficits increase only after climatic disasters, but for lower-middle-income countries, the increase in deficits is widespread across all events. Disasters do not lead to larger deficit increases or larger output declines in countries with higher initial government debt. Countries with higher financial development suffer smaller real consequences from disasters, but deficits expand further in these countries. Disasters in countries with high insurance penetration also have smaller real consequences but do not result in deficit expansions. From an ex-post perspective, the availability of insurance offers the best mitigation approach against real and fiscal consequences of disasters.Debt Markets,Natural Disasters,Economic Theory&Research,Disaster Management,Access to Finance

Local causal structures, Hadamard states and the principle of local covariance in quantum field theory

In the framework of the algebraic formulation, we discuss and analyse some new features of the local structure of a real scalar quantum field theory in a strongly causal spacetime. In particular we use the properties of the exponential map to set up a local version of a bulk-to-boundary correspondence. The bulk is a suitable subset of a geodesic neighbourhood of any but fixed point p of the underlying background, while the boundary is a part of the future light cone having p as its own tip. In this regime, we provide a novel notion for the extended *-algebra of Wick polynomials on the said cone and, on the one hand, we prove that it contains the information of the bulk counterpart via an injective *-homomorphism while, on the other hand, we associate to it a distinguished state whose pull-back in the bulk is of Hadamard form. The main advantage of this point of view arises if one uses the universal properties of the exponential map and of the light cone in order to show that, for any two given backgrounds M and M' and for any two subsets of geodesic neighbourhoods of two arbitrary points, it is possible to engineer the above procedure such that the boundary extended algebras are related via a restriction homomorphism. This allows for the pull-back of boundary states in both spacetimes and, thus, to set up a machinery which permits the comparison of expectation values of local field observables in M and M'.Comment: 42 pages, xy package is used, typos corrected, clarifications adde

A cosmological context for compact massive galaxies

To provide a quantitative cosmological context to ongoing observational work on the formation histories and location of compact massive galaxies, we locate and study a sample of exceptionally compact systems in the Bolshoi simulation, using the dark matter structural parameters from a real, compact massive galaxy (NGC 1277) as a basis for our working criteria. We find that over 80% of objects in this nominal compact category are substructures of more massive groups or clusters, and that the probability of a given massive substructure being this compact increases significantly with the mass of the host structure; rising to ~30% for the most massive clusters in the simulation. Tracking the main progenitors of this subsample back to z=2, we find them all to be distinct structures with scale radii and densities representative of the population as a whole at this epoch. What does characterise their histories, in addition to mostly becoming substructures, is that they have almost all experienced below-average mass accretion since z=2; a third of them barely retaining, or even losing mass during the intervening 10 Gyr.Comment: 9 pages, 9 figure

Breast and prostate cancer survivor responses to group exercise and supportive group psychotherapy

This study qualitatively examined an 8 week group exercise and counseling intervention for breast and prostate cancer survivors. Groups exercised 3 days per week, 50 minutes per session, performing moderate intensity aerobic and resistance training. Groups also underwent 90 minute supportive group psychotherapy sessions once per week. Survivors discussed their experiences in focus groups post intervention. Transcripts were analyzed using interpretative phenomenological analysis. Survivors described how exercise facilitated counseling by creating mutual aid and trust, and counseling helped participants with self-identity, sexuality, and returning to normalcy. When possible, counselors and fitness professionals should create partnerships to optimally support cancer survivors

Simplified mean-variance portfolio optimisation

We propose a simplified approach to mean-variance portfolio problems by changing their parametrisation from trading strategies to final positions. This allows us to treat, under a very mild no-arbitrage-type assumption, a whole range of quadratic optimisation problems by simple mathematical tools in a unified and model-independent way. We provide explicit formulas for optimal positions and values, connections between the solutions to the different problems, two-fund separation results, and explicit expressions for indifference value

Measuring cortical connectivity in Alzheimer's disease as a brain neural network pathology: Toward clinical applications

Objectives: The objective was to review the literature on diffusion tensor imaging as well as resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and electroencephalography (EEG) to unveil neuroanatomical and neurophysiological substrates of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) as a brain neural network pathology affecting structural and functional cortical connectivity underlying human cognition. Methods: We reviewed papers registered in PubMed and other scientific repositories on the use of these techniques in amnesic mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and clinically mild AD dementia patients compared to cognitively intact elderly individuals (Controls). Results: Hundreds of peer-reviewed (cross-sectional and longitudinal) papers have shown in patients with MCI and mild AD compared to Controls (1) impairment of callosal (splenium), thalamic, and anterior–posterior white matter bundles; (2) reduced correlation of resting state blood oxygen level-dependent activity across several intrinsic brain circuits including default mode and attention-related networks; and (3) abnormal power and functional coupling of resting state cortical EEG rhythms. Clinical applications of these measures are still limited. Conclusions: Structural and functional (in vivo) cortical connectivity measures represent a reliable marker of cerebral reserve capacity and should be used to predict and monitor the evolution of AD and its relative impact on cognitive domains in pre-clinical, prodromal, and dementia stages of AD. (JINS, 2016, 22, 138–163