Machine Learning Improves Risk Stratification in Myelofibrosis: An Analysis of the Spanish Registry of Myelofibrosis

Aprendizaje automático; MielofibrosisAprenentatge automàtic; MielofibrosiMachine learning; MyelofibrosisMyelofibrosis (MF) is a myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN) with heterogeneous clinical course. Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation remains the only curative therapy, but its morbidity and mortality require careful candidate selection. Therefore, accurate disease risk prognostication is critical for treatment decision-making. We obtained registry data from patients diagnosed with MF in 60 Spanish institutions (N = 1386). These were randomly divided into a training set (80%) and a test set (20%). A machine learning (ML) technique (random forest) was used to model overall survival (OS) and leukemia-free survival (LFS) in the training set, and the results were validated in the test set. We derived the AIPSS-MF (Artificial Intelligence Prognostic Scoring System for Myelofibrosis) model, which was based on 8 clinical variables at diagnosis and achieved high accuracy in predicting OS (training set c-index, 0.750; test set c-index, 0.744) and LFS (training set c-index, 0.697; test set c-index, 0.703). No improvement was obtained with the inclusion of MPN driver mutations in the model. We were unable to adequately assess the potential benefit of including adverse cytogenetics or high-risk mutations due to the lack of these data in many patients. AIPSS-MF was superior to the IPSS regardless of MF subtype and age range and outperformed the MYSEC-PM in patients with secondary MF. In conclusion, we have developed a prediction model based exclusively on clinical variables that provides individualized prognostic estimates in patients with primary and secondary MF. The use of AIPSS-MF in combination with predictive models that incorporate genetic information may improve disease risk stratification

Machine Learning Improves Risk Stratification in Myelofibrosis: An Analysis of the Spanish Registry of Myelofibrosis

Myelofibrosis (MF) is a myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN) with heterogeneous clinical course. Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation remains the only curative therapy, but its morbidity and mortality require careful candidate selection. Therefore, accurate disease risk prognostication is critical for treatment decision-making. We obtained registry data from patients diagnosed with MF in 60 Spanish institutions (N = 1386). These were randomly divided into a training set (80%) and a test set (20%). A machine learning (ML) technique (random forest) was used to model overall survival (OS) and leukemia-free survival (LFS) in the training set, and the results were validated in the test set. We derived the AIPSS-MF (Artificial Intelligence Prognostic Scoring System for Myelofibrosis) model, which was based on 8 clinical variables at diagnosis and achieved high accuracy in predicting OS (training set c-index, 0.750; test set c-index, 0.744) and LFS (training set c-index, 0.697; test set c-index, 0.703). No improvement was obtained with the inclusion of MPN driver mutations in the model. We were unable to adequately assess the potential benefit of including adverse cytogenetics or high-risk mutations due to the lack of these data in many patients. AIPSS-MF was superior to the IPSS regardless of MF subtype and age range and outperformed the MYSEC-PM in patients with secondary MF. In conclusion, we have developed a prediction model based exclusively on clinical variables that provides individualized prognostic estimates in patients with primary and secondary MF. The use of AIPSS-MF in combination with predictive models that incorporate genetic information may improve disease risk stratification

Rearrangements involving 11q23.3/KMT2A in adult AML: mutational landscape and prognostic implications – a HARMONY study

Balanced rearrangements involving the KMT2A gene (KMT2Ar) are recurrent genetic abnormalities in acute myeloid leukemia (AML), but there is lack of consensus regarding the prognostic impact of different fusion partners. Moreover, prognostic implications of gene mutations co-occurring with KMT2Ar are not established. From the HARMONY AML database 205 KMT2Ar adult patients were selected, 185 of whom had mutational information by a panel-based next-generation sequencing analysis. Overall survival (OS) was similar across the different translocations, including t(9;11)(p21.3;q23.3)/KMT2A::MLLT3 (p = 0.756). However, independent prognostic factors for OS in intensively treated patients were age &gt;60 years (HR 2.1, p = 0.001), secondary AML (HR 2.2, p = 0.043), DNMT3A-mut (HR 2.1, p = 0.047) and KRAS-mut (HR 2.0, p = 0.005). In the subset of patients with de novo AML &lt; 60 years, KRAS and TP53 were the prognostically most relevant mutated genes, as patients with a mutation of any of those two genes had a lower complete remission rate (50% vs 86%, p &lt; 0.001) and inferior OS (median 7 vs 30 months, p &lt; 0.001). Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in first complete remission was able to improve OS (p = 0.003). Our study highlights the importance of the mutational patterns in adult KMT2Ar AML and provides new insights into more accurate prognostic stratification of these patients.</p