Stable computational methods for additive binomial models with application to adjusted risk differences

Risk difference is an important measure of effect size in biostatistics, for both randomised and observational studies. The natural way to adjust risk differences for potential confounders is to use an additive binomial model, which is a binomial generalised linear model with an identity link function. However, implementations of the additive binomial model in commonly used statistical packages can fail to converge to the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE), necessitating the use of approximate methods involving misspecified or inflexible models. A novel computational method is proposed, which retains the additive binomial model but uses the multinomial–Poisson transformation to convert the problem into an equivalent additive Poisson fit. The method allows reliable computation of the MLE, as well as allowing for semi-parametric monotonic regression functions. The performance of the method is examined in simulations and it is used to analyse two datasets from clinical trials in acute myocardial infarction. Source code for implementing the method in R is provided as supplementary material (see Appendix A).Australian Research Counci

logbin: An R Package for Relative Risk Regression Using the Log-Binomial Model

Relative risk regression using a log-link binomial generalized linear model (GLM) is an important tool for the analysis of binary outcomes. However, Fisher scoring, which is the standard method for fitting GLMs in statistical software, may have difficulties in converging to the maximum likelihood estimate due to implicit parameter constraints. logbin is an R package that implements several algorithms for fitting relative risk regression models, allowing stable maximum likelihood estimation while ensuring the required parameter constraints are obeyed. We describe the logbin package and examine its stability and speed for different computational algorithms. We also describe how the package may be used to include flexible semi-parametric terms in relative risk regression models

Progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in modern ovarian cancer trials: A meta-analysis

Background: Progression-free survival (PFS) has been adopted as the primary endpoint in many randomized controlled trials, and can be determined much earlier than overall survival (OS). We investigated whether PFS is a good surrogate endpoint for OS in trials of first-line treatment for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), and whether this relationship has changed with the introduction of new treatment types. Methods: In a meta-analysis, we identified summary data [hazard ratio (HR) and median time] from published randomized controlled trials. Linear regression was used to assess the association between treatment effects on PFS and OS overall, and for subgroups defined by treatment type, postprogression survival (PPS) and established prognostic factors. Results: Correlation between HRs for PFS and OS, in 26 trials with 30 treatment comparisons comprising 24,870 patients, was modest (r2 = 0.52, weighted by trial sample size). The correlation diminished with recency: preplatinum/paclitaxel era, r2 = 0.66; platinum/paclitaxel, r2 = 0.44; triplet combinations, r2 = 0.22; biologicals, r2 = 0.30. The median PPS increased over time for the experimental (Ptrend = 0.03) and control arms (Ptrend = 0.003). The difference in median PPS between treatment arms strongly correlated with the difference in median OS (r2 = 0.83). In trials where the control therapy had median PPS of less than 18 months, correlation between PFS and OS was stronger (r2 = 0.64) than where the median PPS was longer (r2 = 0.48). Conclusions: In EOC, correlation in the relative treatment effect between PFS and OS in first-line platinum-based chemotherapy randomized controlled trials is moderate and has weakened with increasing availability of effective salvage therapies

Iso-osmotic regulation of nitrate accumulation in lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.)

Concerns about possible health hazards arising from human consumption of lettuce and other edible vegetable crops with high concentrations of nitrate have generated demands for a greater understanding of processes involved in its uptake and accumulation in order to devise more sustainable strategies for its control. This paper evaluates a proposed iso-osmotic mechanism for the regulation of nitrate accumulation in lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) heads. This mechanism assumes that changes in the concentrations of nitrate and all other endogenous osmotica (including anions, cations and neutral solutes) are continually adjusted in tandem to minimise differences in osmotic potential of the shoot sap during growth, with these changes occurring independently of any variations in external water potential. The hypothesis was tested using data from six new experiments, each with a single unique treatment comprising a separate combination of light intensity, N source (nitrate with or without ammonium) and nitrate concentration carried out hydroponically in a glasshouse using a butterhead lettuce variety. Repeat measurements of plant weights and estimates of all of the main soluble constituents (nitrate, potassium, calcium, magnesium, organic anions, chloride, phosphate, sulphate and soluble carbohydrates) in the shoot sap were made at intervals from about 2 weeks after transplanting until commercial maturity, and the data used to calculate changes in average osmotic potential in the shoot. Results showed that nitrate concentrations in the sap increased when average light levels were reduced by between 30 and 49 % and (to a lesser extent) when nitrate was supplied at a supra-optimal concentration, and declined with partial replacement of nitrate by ammonium in the external nutrient supply. The associated changes in the proportions of other endogenous osmotica, in combination with the adjustment of shoot water content, maintained the total solute concentrations in shoot sap approximately constant and minimised differences in osmotic potential between treatments at each sampling date. There was, however, a gradual increase in osmotic potential (ie a decline in total solute concentration) over time largely caused by increases in shoot water content associated with the physiological and morphological development of the plants. Regression analysis using normalised data (to correct for these time trends) showed that the results were consistent with a 1:1 exchange between the concentrations of nitrate and the sum of all other endogenous osmotica throughout growth, providing evidence that an iso-osmotic mechanism (incorporating both concentration and volume regulation) was involved in controlling nitrate concentrations in the shoot

Biosimilarity and Interchangeability: Principles and Evidence: A Systematic Review

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.Background The efficacy, safety and immunogenicity risk of switching between an originator biologic and a biosimilar or from one biosimilar to another are of potential concern. Objectives The aim was to conduct a systematic literature review of the outcomes of switching between biologics and their biosimilars and identify any evidence gaps. Methods A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane Library from inception to June 2017. Relevant societal meetings were also checked. Peer-reviewed studies reporting efficacy and/or safety data on switching between originator and biosimilar products or from one biosimilar to another were selected. Studies with fewer than 20 switched patients were excluded. Data were extracted on interventions, study population, reason for treatment switching, efficacy outcomes, safety and anti-drug antibodies. Results The systematic literature search identified 63 primary publications covering 57 switching studies. The reason for switching was reported as non-medical in 50 studies (23 clinical, 27 observational). Seven studies (all observational) did not report whether the reasons for switching were medical or non-medical. In 38 of the 57 studies, fewer than 100 patients were switched. Follow-up after switching went beyond 1 year in eight of the 57 studies. Of the 57 studies, 33 included statistical analysis of disease activity or patient outcomes; the majority of these studies found no statistically significant differences between groups for main efficacy parameters (based on P < 0.05 or predefined acceptance ranges), although some studies observed changes for some parameters. Most studies reported similar safety profiles between groups. Conclusions There are important evidence gaps around the safety of switching between biologics and their biosimilars. Sufficiently powered and appropriately statistically analysed clinical trials and pharmacovigilance studies, with long-term follow-ups and multiple switches, are needed to support decision-making around biosimilar switching

Transforming Obesity Prevention for CHILDren (TOPCHILD) Collaboration: Protocol for a Systematic Review with Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis of Behavioural Interventions for the Prevention of Early Childhood Obesity

INTRODUCTION: Behavioural interventions in early life appear to show some effect in reducing childhood overweight and obesity. However, uncertainty remains regarding their overall effectiveness, and whether effectiveness differs among key subgroups. These evidence gaps have prompted an increase in very early childhood obesity prevention trials worldwide. Combining the individual participant data (IPD) from these trials will enhance statistical power to determine overall effectiveness and enable examination of individual and trial-level subgroups. We present a protocol for a systematic review with IPD meta-analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of obesity prevention interventions commencing antenatally or in the first year after birth, and to explore whether there are differential effects among key subgroups. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Systematic searches of Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), PsycInfo and trial registries for all ongoing and completed randomised controlled trials evaluating behavioural interventions for the prevention of early childhood obesity have been completed up to March 2021 and will be updated annually to include additional trials. Eligible trialists will be asked to share their IPD; if unavailable, aggregate data will be used where possible. An IPD meta-analysis and a nested prospective meta-analysis will be performed using methodologies recommended by the Cochrane Collaboration. The primary outcome will be body mass index z-score at age 24±6 months using WHO Growth Standards, and effect differences will be explored among prespecified individual and trial-level subgroups. Secondary outcomes include other child weight-related measures, infant feeding, dietary intake, physical activity, sedentary behaviours, sleep, parenting measures and adverse events. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approved by The University of Sydney Human Research Ethics Committee (2020/273) and Flinders University Social and Behavioural Research Ethics Committee (HREC CIA2133-1). Results will be relevant to clinicians, child health services, researchers, policy-makers and families, and will be disseminated via publications, presentations and media releases. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020177408

Semi-parametric risk prediction models for recurrent cardiovascular events in the LIPID study

Background: Traditional methods for analyzing clinical and epidemiological cohort study data have been focused on the first occurrence of a health outcome. However, in many situations, recurrent event data are frequently observed. It is inefficient to use methods for the analysis of first events to analyse recurrent event data

Pregabalin versus gabapentin in partial epilepsy: a meta-analysis of dose-response relationships

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To compare the efficacy of pregabalin and gabapentin at comparable effective dose levels in patients with refractory partial epilepsy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Eight randomized placebo controlled trials investigating the efficacy of pregabalin (4 studies) and gabapentin (4 studies) over 12 weeks were identified with a systematic literature search. The endpoints of interest were "responder rate" (where response was defined as at least a 50% reduction from baseline in the number of seizures) and "change from baseline in seizure-free days over the last 28 days (SFD)". Results of all trials were analyzed using an indirect comparison approach with placebo as the common comparator. The base-case analysis used the intention-to-treat last observation carried forward method. Two sensitivity analyses were conducted among completer and responder populations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The base-case analysis revealed statistically significant differences in response rate in favor of pregabalin 300 mg versus gabapentin 1200 mg (odds ratio, 1.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.02, 3.25) and pregabalin 600 mg versus gabapentin 1800 mg (odds ratio, 2.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.21, 5.27). Both sensitivity analyses supported the findings of the base-case analysis, although statistical significance was not demonstrated. All dose levels of pregabalin (150 mg to 600 mg) were more efficacious than corresponding dosages of gabapentin (900 mg to 2400 mg) in terms of SFD over the last 28 days.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In patients with refractory partial epilepsy, pregabalin is likely to be more effective than gabapentin at comparable effective doses, based on clinical response and the number of SFD.</p