Macroeconomic Stability and Wage Inequality: A Model with Credit and Labor Market Frictions

While macroeconomic volatility in the US economy decreased since the early 1980's, individual earnings volatility and wage inequality increased. This paper argues that increasing financial development can contribute to both changes. I develop a real business cycle model with sectoral productivity shocks and labor as well as credit market frictions. Credit market frictions take the form of collateral-based credit constraints. It is shown that there are interactions between the labor and the credit market that matter for the development of wages and output. When workers are not perfectly mobile between sectors, financial development comes along with an increase in the volatility of individual earnings and in wage inequality, although aggregate output volatility is lower.Financial development, labor market frictions, sectoral shocks, volatility, wage inequality

The location of diapycnal mixing and the meridional overturning circulation

The large-scale consequences of diapycnal mixing location are explored using an idealized threedimensional model of buoyancy-forced flow in a single hemisphere. Diapycnal mixing is most effective in supporting a strong meridional overturning circulation (MOC) if mixing occurs in regions of strong stratification, that is, in the low-latitude thermocline where diffusion causes strong vertical buoyancy fluxes. Where stratification is weak, such as at high latitudes, diapycnal mixing plays little role in determining MOC strength, consistent with weak diffusive buoyancy fluxes at these latitudes. Boundary mixing is more efficient than interior mixing at driving the MOC; with interior mixing the planetary vorticity constraint inhibits the communication of interior water mass properties and the eastern boundary. Mixing below the thermocline affects the abyssal stratification and upwelling profile, but does not contribute significantly to the MOC through the thermocline or the ocean’s meridional heat transport. The abyssal heat budget is dominated by the downward mass transport of buoyant water versus the spread of denser water tied to the properties of deep convection, with mixing of minor importance. These results are in contrast to the widespread expectation that the observed enhanced abyssal mixing can maintain the MOC; rather, they suggest that enhanced boundary mixing in the thermocline needs to be identified in observations

Geothermal Heating and its Influence on the Meridional Overturning Circulation

The effect of geothermal heating on the meridional overturning circulation is examined using an idealized, coarse-resolution ocean general circulation model. This heating is parameterized as a spatially uniform heat flux of 50 mW m-2 through the (flat) ocean floor, in contrast with previous studies that have considered an isolated hotspot or a series of plumes along the mid-Atlantic ridge. The equilibrated response is largely advective: a deep perturbation of the meridional overturning cell on the order of several Sv is produced, connecting with an upper-level circulation at high latitudes, allowing the additional heat to be released to the atmosphere. Risingmotion in the perturbation deep cell is concentrated near the equator. The upward penetration of this cell is limited by the thermocline, analogous to the role of the stratosphere in limiting the upward penetration of convective plumes in the atmosphere. The magnitude of the advective response is inversely proportional to the deep stratification; with a weaker background meridional overturning circulation and a less stratified abyss, the overturning maximum of the perturbation deep cell is increased. This advective response also cools the low-latitude thermocline. The qualitative behavior is similar in both a single hemisphere and double hemisphere configuration.The anomalous circulation driven by geothermal fluxes is more substantial than previously thought. We are able to understand the structure and strength of the response in the idealized geometry and further extend these ideas to explain the results of Adcroft et al. [2001], where the impact of geothermal heating was examined using a global configuration

Impact of geothermal heating on the global ocean circulation

The response of a global circulation model to a uniform geothermal heat flux of 50 mW m-2 through the sea floor is examined. If the geothermal heat input were transported upward purely by diffusion, the deep ocean would warm by 1.2°C. However, geothermal heating induces a substantial change in the deep circulation which is larger than previously assumed and subsequently the warming of the deep ocean is only a quarter of that suggested by the diffusive limit. The numerical ocean model responds most strongly in the Indo-Pacific with an increase in meridional overturning of 1.8 Sv, enhancing the existing overturning by approximately 25%

Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: Mechanisms and predictability

The ocean's thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood

A simple and self-consistent geostrophic-force-balance model of the thermohaline circulation with boundary mixing

A simple model of the thermohaline circulation (THC) is formulated, with the objective to represent explicitly the geostrophic force balance of the basinwide THC. The model comprises advective-diffusive density balances in two meridional-vertical planes located at the eastern and the western walls of a hemispheric sector basin. Boundary mixing constrains vertical motion to lateral boundary layers along these walls. Interior, along-boundary, and zonally integrated meridional flows are in thermal-wind balance. Rossby waves and the absence of interior mixing render isopycnals zonally flat except near the western boundary, constraining meridional flow to the western boundary layer. The model is forced by a prescribed meridional surface density profile. This two-plane model reproduces both steady-state density and steady-state THC structures of a primitive-equation model. The solution shows narrow deep sinking at the eastern high latitudes, distributed upwelling at both boundaries, and a western boundary current with poleward surface and equatorward deep flow. The overturning strength has a 2/3-power-law dependence on vertical diffusivity and a 1/3-power-law dependence on the imposed meridional surface density difference. Convective mixing plays an essential role in the two-plane model, ensuring that deep sinking is located at high latitudes. This role of convective mixing is consistent with that in three-dimensional models and marks a sharp contrast with previous two-dimensional models. Overall, the two-plane model reproduces crucial features of the THC as simulated in simple-geometry three-dimensional models. At the same time, the model self-consistently makes quantitative a conceptual picture of the three-dimensional THC that hitherto has been expressed either purely qualitatively or not self-consistently.Studienstiftung des deutschen Volke

Inferring meridional mass and heat transports of the Indian Ocean by fitting a general circulation model to climatological data

The meridional overturning and heat transport of the Indian Ocean are studied by fitting the steady state dynamics of a general circulation model (GCM) to climatological annual mean temperatures, salinities, and surface forcings using the GCM and its adjoint. By estimating target temperatures and salinities near the artificially closed side boundaries as part of the optimization procedure, a steady solution that is consistent with climatological data within limits of observational errors is found. The resultant meridional overturning is vigorous (14 Sv; 1 Sv=106 m3/s) only in the upper 1000 m. The estimated deep inflow entering the Indian Ocean from the south is weak. Requiring a large net northward inflow at depth does not result in strong interior upwelling but leads to unrealistically large baroclinic mass exchange and implied vertical mixing near the Indonesian throughflow region. The shallow overturning is the main carrier of the southward heat transport, which has a maximum of 0.8 PW (1 PW=1015 W) near 150S. Wind forcing plays a key role in driving the estimated overturning of the Indian Ocean. This result is in disagreement with previous interpretations about the central role of surface heat flux in driving a vigorous deep overturning of the Indian Ocean

The transition from the present-day climate to a modern Snowball Earth

We use the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM to investigate the transition from the present-day climate to a modern Snowball Earth, defined as the Earth in modern geography with complete sea-ice cover. Starting from the present-day climate and applying an abrupt decrease of total solar irradiance (TSI) we find that the critical TSI marking the Snowball Earth bifurcation point is between 91 and 94% of the present-day TSI. The Snowball Earth bifurcation point as well as the transition times are well reproduced by a zero-dimensional energy balance model of the mean ocean potential temperature. During the transition, the asymmetric distribution of continents between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere causes heat transports toward the more water-covered Southern Hemisphere. This is accompanied by an intensification of the southern Hadley cell and the wind-driven subtropical ocean cells by a factor of 4. If we set back TSI to 100% shortly before the transition to a modern Snowball Earth is completed, a narrow band of open equatorial water is sufficient for rapid melting. This implies that for 100% TSI the point of unstoppable glaciation separating partial from complete sea-ice cover is much closer to complete sea-ice cover than in classical energy balance models. Stable states can have no greater than 56.6% sea-ice cover implying that ECHAM5/MPI-OM does not exhibit stable states with near-complete sea-ice cover but open equatorial waters

Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends

Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST—with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability—and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded