Permafrost model sensitivity to seasonal climatic changes and extreme events in mountainous regions

Climate models project considerable ranges and uncertainties in future climatic changes. To assess the potential impacts of climatic changes on mountain permafrost within these ranges of uncertainty, this study presents a sensitivity analysis using a permafrost process model combined with climate input based on delta-change approaches. Delta values comprise a multitude of coupled air temperature and precipitation changes to analyse long-term, seasonal and seasonal extreme changes on a typical low-ice content mountain permafrost location in the Swiss Alps. The results show that seasonal changes in autumn (SON) have the largest impact on the near-surface permafrost thermal regime in the model, and lowest impacts in winter (DJF). For most of the variability, snow cover duration and timing are the most important factors, whereas maximum snow height only plays a secondary role unless maximum snow heights are very small. At least for the low-ice content site of this study, extreme events have only short-term effects and have less impact on permafrost than long-term air temperature trends

Local influences of geothermal anomalies on permafrost distribution in an active volcanic island (Deception Island, Antarctica)

This study aims at understanding the spatial distribution and characteristics of the frozen and unfrozen terrain in an alluvial fan on Deception Island, which is an active strato-volcano located in the Bransfield Strait (South Shetland Islands) with recent eruptions in 1967, 1969 and 1970. The alluvial fan is dominated by debris-flow, run-off and rock fall processes and permafrost occurs in several parts in the vicinity of anomalous geothermal heat flux. The aim is to assess the ways volcanic activity controls permafrost development and associated geomorphic dynamics using shallow subsurface, surface and air temperature measurements as well as thaw depth and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys.Results show a temperature increase with depth in the lower part of the fan reaching 13 °C at 0.80 m depth, without the presence of permafrost. The shallow borehole located at this site showed a stable thermal stratification all year-round, with only the upper 0.20 m reacting to meteorological forcing. In the upper part of the alluvial fan and debris cones, c. 100 m from the coast, frozen ground is present at c. 0.70 m depth. There, the shallow borehole shows a good coupling with air temperatures and the thermal regime favours the presence of permafrost. ERT shows the lowest resistivity values in the lower part of the alluvial fan and a highly resistivity zone in the upper sector of the fan and in the debris cones. These large variations in resistivity mark the presence of a saline water wedge from the sea into the fan, reaching frozen ground conditions about 100 m inland. It can be shown that the volcano-hydrothermal activity only inhibits frost development very locally, with frozen ground conditions occurring about 100 m away

Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland

Permafrost is a widespread phenomenon in mountainous regions of the world such as the European Alps. Many important topics such as the future evolution of permafrost related to climate change and the detection of permafrost related to potential natural hazards sites are of major concern to our society. Numerical permafrost models are the only tools which allow for the projection of the future evolution of permafrost. Due to the complexity of the processes involved and the heterogeneity of Alpine terrain, models must be carefully calibrated, and results should be compared with observations at the site (borehole) scale. However, for large-scale applications, a site- specific model calibration for a multitude of grid points would be very time-consuming. To tackle this issue, this study presents a semi-automated calibration method using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) as implemented in a 1-D soil model (CoupModel) and applies it to six permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps. We show that this semi-automated calibration method is able to accurately reproduce the main thermal condition characteristics with some limitations at sites with unique conditions such as 3-D air or water circulation, which have to be calibrated manually. The calibration obtained was used for global and regional climate model (GCM/RCM)-based long-term climate projections under the A1B climate scenario (EU-ENSEMBLES project) specifically downscaled at each borehole site. The projection shows general permafrost degradation with thawing at 10 m, even partially reaching 20 m depth by the end of the century, but with different timing among the sites and with partly considerable uncertainties due to the spread of the applied climatic forcing