Finding and removing highly connected individuals using suboptimal vaccines

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Social networks are often highly skewed, meaning that the vast majority of the population has only few contacts whereas a small minority has a large number of contacts. These highly connected individuals may play an important role in case of an infectious disease outbreak.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We propose a novel strategy of finding and immunizing highly connected individuals and evaluate this strategy by computer simulations, using a stochastic, individual-and network-based simulation approach. A small random sample of the population is asked to list their acquaintances, and those who are mentioned most frequently are offered vaccination. This intervention is combined with case isolation and contact tracing.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Asking only 10% of the population for 10 acquaintances each and vaccinating the most frequently named people strongly diminishes the magnitude of an outbreak which would otherwise have exhausted the available isolation units and gone out of control. It is extremely important to immunize all identified highly connected individuals. Omitting a few of them because of unsuccessful vaccination jeopardizes the overall success, unless non-immunized individuals are taken under surveillance.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The strategy proposed in this paper is particularly successful because it attacks the very point from which the transmission network draws its strength: the highly connected individuals. Current preparedness and containment plans for smallpox and other infectious diseases may benefit from such knowledge.</p

AIDA I - Abschlußbericht

In diesem Bericht geht es um die Zusammenfassung der Erkenntnisse, die im Verlauf der ersten Phase des AIDA-Projektes bis September 1997 gewonnen wurden. AIDA ist ein Projekt, das von der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) finanziert wird. Das Thema dieses Projektes sind mobile Agenten, also Einheiten, die aus Code, Daten und Zustand bestehen und sich selbständig in einem Netzwerk bewegen können. Das Ziel von AIDA I war es, auf der Grundlage eines allgemeinen Verarbeitungsmodells flexible Systemmechanismen für verteilte, agentenbasierte Systeme zu entwickeln

ATOMAS : a transaction-oriented open multi agent system; final report

The electronic marketplace of the future will consist of a large number of services located on an open, distributed and heterogeneous platform, which will be used by an even larger number of clients. Mobile Agent Systems are considered to be a precondition for the evolution of such an electronic market. They can provide a flexible infrastructure for this market, i.e. for the installation of new services by service agents as well as for the utilization of these services by client agents. Mobile Agent Systems basically consist of a number of locations and agents. Locations are (logical) abstractions for (physical) hosts in a computer network. The network of locations serves as a unique and homogeneous platform, while the underlying network of hosts may be heterogeneous and widely distributed. Locations therefore have to guarantee independence from the underlying hard- and software. To make the Mobile Agent System an open platform, the system furthermore has to guarantee security of hosts against malicious attacks

The epidemiological impact of childhood influenza vaccination using live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in Germany: predictions of a simulation study

Rose MA, Damm O, Greiner W, et al. The epidemiological impact of childhood influenza vaccination using live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in Germany: predictions of a simulation study. BMC Infectious Diseases. 2014;14(1): 40.Background Routine annual influenza vaccination is primarily recommended for all persons aged 60 and above and for people with underlying chronic conditions in Germany. Other countries have already adopted additional childhood influenza immunisation programmes. The objective of this study is to determine the potential epidemiological impact of implementing paediatric influenza vaccination using intranasally administered live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in Germany. Methods A deterministic age-structured model is used to simulate the population-level impact of different vaccination strategies on the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza in Germany. In our base-case analysis, we estimate the effects of adding a LAIV-based immunisation programme targeting children 2 to 17 years of age to the existing influenza vaccination policy. The data used in the model is based on published evidence complemented by expert opinion. Results In our model, additional vaccination of children 2 to 17 years of age with LAIV leads to the prevention of 23.9 million influenza infections and nearly 16 million symptomatic influenza cases within 10 years. This reduction in burden of disease is not restricted to children. About one third of all adult cases can indirectly be prevented by LAIV immunisation of children. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that vaccinating children 2–17 years of age is likely associated with a significant reduction in the burden of paediatric influenza. Furthermore, annual routine childhood vaccination against seasonal influenza is expected to decrease the incidence of influenza among adults and older people due to indirect effects of herd protection. In summary, our model provides data supporting the introduction of a paediatric influenza immunisation programme in Germany

Nexus - an open global infrastructure for spatial-aware applications

Due to the lack of a generic platform for location- and spatial-aware systems, many basic services have to be reimplemented in each application that uses spatial-awareness. A cooperation among different applications is also difficult to achieve without a common platform. In this paper we present a platform that solves these problems. It provides an infrastructure that is based on computer models of regions of the physical world, which are augmented by virtual objects. We show how virtual objects make the integration of existing information systems and services in spatial-aware systems easier. Furthermore, our platform supports interactions between the computer models and the real world and integrates single models in a global 'Augmented World'

Cost-Utility of Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccine in Germany, Using an Individual-Based Dynamic Transmission Model

Seasonal influenza infection is primarily caused by circulation of two influenza A strain subtypes and strains from two B lineages that vary each year. Trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) contains only one of the two B-lineage strains, resulting in mismatches between vaccine strains and the predominant circulating B lineage. Quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) includes both B-lineage strains. The objective was to estimate the cost-utility of introducing QIV to replace TIV in Germany. An individual-based dynamic transmission model (4Flu) using German data was used to provide realistic estimates of the impact of TIV and QIV on age-specific influenza infections. Cases were linked to health and economic outcomes to calculate the cost-utility of QIV versus TIV, from both a societal and payer perspective. Costs and effects were discounted at 3.0 and 1.5 % respectively, with 2014 as the base year. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Using QIV instead of TIV resulted in additional quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and cost savings from the societal perspective (i.e. it represents the dominant strategy) and an incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of a,not sign14,461 per QALY from a healthcare payer perspective. In all univariate analyses, QIV remained cost-effective (ICUR <a,not sign50,000). In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, QIV was cost-effective in > 98 and > 99 % of the simulations from the societal and payer perspective, respectively. This analysis suggests that QIV in Germany would provide additional health gains while being cost-saving to society or costing a,not sign14,461 per QALY gained from the healthcare payer perspective, compared with TIV

The influenza pandemic preparedness planning tool InfluSim

BACKGROUND: Planning public health responses against pandemic influenza relies on predictive models by which the impact of different intervention strategies can be evaluated. Research has to date rather focused on producing predictions for certain localities or under specific conditions, than on designing a publicly available planning tool which can be applied by public health administrations. Here, we provide such a tool which is reproducible by an explicitly formulated structure and designed to operate with an optimal combination of the competing requirements of precision, realism and generality. RESULTS: InfluSim is a deterministic compartment model based on a system of over 1,000 differential equations which extend the classic SEIR model by clinical and demographic parameters relevant for pandemic preparedness planning. It allows for producing time courses and cumulative numbers of influenza cases, outpatient visits, applied antiviral treatment doses, hospitalizations, deaths and work days lost due to sickness, all of which may be associated with economic aspects. The software is programmed in Java, operates platform independent and can be executed on regular desktop computers. CONCLUSION: InfluSim is an online available software which efficiently assists public health planners in designing optimal interventions against pandemic influenza. It can reproduce the infection dynamics of pandemic influenza like complex computer simulations while offering at the same time reproducibility, higher computational performance and better operability