Pikaajaline töötus ja selle regionaalsed erinevused Eestis

Väitekirja elektrooniline versioon ei sisalda publikatsioone.Pikaajaline töötus (töötus, mis kestab üle 12 kuu) on üks tõsisemaid sotsiaalmajanduslikke probleeme, millega puutuvad kokku paljud arenenud riigid. 2010. aastal oli Eestis rekordarv, ligi 53 000 pikaajalist töötut, s.o. 45% kõikidest töötutest. Käesolevas doktoritöös analüüsitakse pikaajalise töötuse kujunemist, töötute struktuuri muutusi ja regionaalseid erinevusi Eestis ligi kahe aastakümne jooksul. Analüüs on teostatud peamiselt Statistikaameti tööjõu-uuringu andmete põhjal. Eesmärgiks oli põhjalikumalt uurida, mil määral mõjutavad isiku pikaajaliseks töötuks jäämise riski elukoha regioon ja töötu sotsiaal-demograafilised tunnused. Analüüsist selgus, et pikaajalise töötuse tekkele Eestis viisid eelkõige struktuursed muutused majanduses, millega kaasnes kiire töökohtade kadumine ja töötuse kasv. Töötute oskuste mittevastavus tööturu nõuetele ja töökohtade regionaalse paiknemise mittevastavus tööjõu pakkumisele viisid töötuse kestuse pikenemisele. Vaadeldava perioodi jooksul võis täheldada kolme pöördepunkti, mis põhjustasid töötuse järsu tõusu: taasiseseisvumise järgselt majanduse restruktureerimisega seotud ümberkorraldused 1990. aastate alguses, Vene majanduskriis aastatel 1998-1999 ja ülemaailmne majanduskriis, mille mõju tööturule hakkas avalduma 2008. aasta teisel poolel. Logistilise regressioonanalüüsi tulemused näitasid, et mitte-eestlastel, üle 50-aastastel ja eriti madala haridustasemega isikutel on suurem šanss jääda pikaajaliseks töötuks nii majanduskasvu kui majanduslanguse perioodidel. Nendel, kes elavad Kirde-Eestis ja Lõuna-Eestis on suurem risk pikaajaliseks töötuks jääda võrreldes teiste Eesti regioonidega. Regresioonanalüüsi tulemused näitasid, et sotsiaal-demograafiliste tunnuste erinevused ja regioonidevahelised erinevused vähenesid majanduslanguse ajal võrreldes majandusbuumiga, kuna töötuse järsk kasv hõlmas kõiki rahvastikugruppe ja regioone. Selgus, et Eestis on mõlemad, nii isiku sotsiaal-demograafilised tunnused kui elukoht olulise riskiga pikaajaliseks töötuks jäämisel, mistõttu tuleks töötuse kestuse vähendamiseks rakendada tööturu poliitikas nii tööjõu pakkumise kui nõudluse poole meetmeid.Long-term unemployment (unemployment over 12 months) is a serious problem because of economic and social costs, erosion of human capital and employability. Close to 53,000 persons were long-term unemployed in 2010 in Estonia, i.e. 45% of total unemployed. The current study examined the formation, development and regional disparities of long-term unemployment in Estonia during the period of most of the last twenty years, since the beginning of the 1990s until 2010. It appeared that structural changes in the economy along with skill and location mismatches led to long durations of unemployment. We observed that during the investigated period there were three main turning points that caused the rise in overall unemployment: economic restructuring at the beginning of the 1990s, the Russian economic crisis in 1998-1999 and the ongoing global economic crisis that started to influence the labour market in 2008. The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of region of residence and individual characteristics in the probability of being long-term unemployed, i.e. to find out what kind of people and regions are under the highest risk of falling into long-term unemployment. We analysed the Estonian Labour Force Survey data. The results of the regression analysis showed that the following groups were most likely long-term unemployed both during the economic boom and economic bust period: ethnic minorities, people over 50 years old and people with low educational attainment. A low level of education and the consequent lack of special skills and qualifications was the most important individual characteristic that prevents people from exiting unemployment. Higher rates of unemployment and long-term unemployment persist in eastern regions (North-Eastern Estonia and Southern Estonia) despite almost two decades of transition. However, the results showed a narrowing of differences between regions and population groups during the economic recession compared to the economic boom. As in Estonia both the individual characteristics of the unemployed and region of residence are important determinants in the probability of staying long-term unemployed, supply-side and demand-side measures should be implemented in reducing the duration of unemployment

Changes in the regional migration model at the advanced stage of urbanization

Modification des modèles régionaux de migration au stade avancé de l'urbanisation Le présent article est consacré aux problèmes qui, les dernières années, ont attiré l'attention dans les pays où l'urbanisation est au stade avancé, la modification des directions de la migration et les problèmes de la déconcentration de la population. L'auteur analyse ces problèmes en se basant sur les exemples de l'Estonie soviétique, une des parties la plus urbanisée de l'Union soviétique. À la base de la recherhe, il y a une approche systématique : le peuplement de la république est considéré comme un système territorial, centralisé d'une manière hiérarchique, la migration comme expression de sa conduite et aussi comme fonction de gestion. La politique de la migration compose une partie de la gestion, du système du peuplement. Dans l'analyse des modifications du modèle régional de l'émigration de l'Estonie soviétique on essaie d'expliquer quel rôle jouent les genres de migration influencés directement ou indirectement dans la redistribution de la population de la république, surtout dans les changements des proportions des localités urbaines et rurales et quels sont les facteurs socio-économiques qui conditionnent ces modifications. Les résultats de la recherche montrent qu'au début des années 1970 la migration reflétait encore la suite de la concentration de la population aux rangs les plus élevés de la hiérarchie des agglomérations urbanisées. Cependant, les genres de la migration dirigée (déplacement lié aux études, ou le déplacement organisé des travailleurs) ont directement soutenu cette concentration. Mais au début des années 1980 commença dans la migration un tournant, qui se révéla premièrement dans la redistribution de la population entre les villes des rangs les plus élevés et les localités rurales. Le tournant mentionné a été conditionné par le besoin de garantir à l'agriculture et aux autres branches industrielles rurales la main-d'œuvre. L'efficacité de la politique de la migration a aidé à réaliser ce tournant, surtout la variété des moyens indirects d'influence.Marksoo Ann. Changes in the regional migration model at the advanced stage of urbanization. In: Espace, populations, sociétés, 1985-1. Migrations et urbanisation - Migrations and cities. pp. 118-127

Developments in Long-Term Unemployment during Economic Revival: the Case of Estonia

The aim of this article is to analyse changes in the nature and scope of long-term unemployment in Estonia against the background of positive economic development in recent years. The analysis covers the period 1997-2006 including changes in the structure of long-term unemployment and an overview of the active labour market policy measures for mitigating long-term unemployment. The analysis is based on the Estonian Labour Force Survey micro data showing that against the background of positive economic growth, in addition to short-term unemployment, also long-term unemployment as well as inactivity has decreased rapidly. However, a problem is still the high share of long-term unemployment among the unemployed – 48%, and the high share of those who have been seeking for work more than two years. A logistic regression indicated that in the greatest risk of long-term unemployment in Estonia are older population, non-Estonians, people with lower educational level and rural unemployed people. The main strategy for curbing long-term unemployment used in Estonia today is the case management method, which enables to approach each unemployed person personally and offer him/her suitable labour market measures for increasing his/her competitiveness.labour market, long-term unemployment, active labour market measures

Residence and Migration in Post-War Soviet Estonia: The Case of Russian-Born Estonians

Conventional research has used aggregate statistics and bivariate methods in studying migration in Soviet society and has stressed the critical role of a single (usually structural) determinant in an individual's migration. This research tests the dominant view, using individual level data and multivariate methods. The objective is to clarify the extent to which structural-environmental factors and the extent to which personal characteristics determined the first residence and migration of Russian-born Estonians in post-war Estonia. The data of the retrospective survey on 265 ethnic Estonians born in Russia between 1915 and 1969 and settled in Estonia between 1940 and 1988 are used. It appears that the first residence and migration of the ethnic Estonians was shaped by an immigration cohort - the variable reflecting structural-environmental conditions. However, several personal characteristics - age, earlier life-environment, language usage and education - also turned out to be important determinants of residence and migration of the ethnic Estonians. The results provide evidence to the view that migration in the Soviet Union was a complex outcome of interaction of structural forces and people's preferences, and therefore differed less from other parts of the world than often presumed. Copyright (c) 2003 by the Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG.