Optimal Investment in the Development of Oil and Gas Field

Let an oil and gas field consists of clusters in each of which an investor can launch at most one project. During the implementation of a particular project, all characteristics are known, including annual production volumes, necessary investment volumes, and profit. The total amount of investments that the investor spends on developing the field during the entire planning period we know. It is required to determine which projects to implement in each cluster so that, within the total amount of investments, the profit for the entire planning period is maximum. The problem under consideration is NP-hard. However, it is solved by dynamic programming with pseudopolynomial time complexity. Nevertheless, in practice, there are additional constraints that do not allow solving the problem with acceptable accuracy at a reasonable time. Such restrictions, in particular, are annual production volumes. In this paper, we considered only the upper constraints that are dictated by the pipeline capacity. For the investment optimization problem with such additional restrictions, we obtain qualitative results, propose an approximate algorithm, and investigate its properties. Based on the results of a numerical experiment, we conclude that the developed algorithm builds a solution close (in terms of the objective function) to the optimal one

Optimal leverage from non-ergodicity

In modern portfolio theory, the balancing of expected returns on investments against uncertainties in those returns is aided by the use of utility functions. The Kelly criterion offers another approach, rooted in information theory, that always implies logarithmic utility. The two approaches seem incompatible, too loosely or too tightly constraining investors' risk preferences, from their respective perspectives. The conflict can be understood on the basis that the multiplicative models used in both approaches are non-ergodic which leads to ensemble-average returns differing from time-average returns in single realizations. The classic treatments, from the very beginning of probability theory, use ensemble-averages, whereas the Kelly-result is obtained by considering time-averages. Maximizing the time-average growth rates for an investment defines an optimal leverage, whereas growth rates derived from ensemble-average returns depend linearly on leverage. The latter measure can thus incentivize investors to maximize leverage, which is detrimental to time-average growth and overall market stability. The Sharpe ratio is insensitive to leverage. Its relation to optimal leverage is discussed. A better understanding of the significance of time-irreversibility and non-ergodicity and the resulting bounds on leverage may help policy makers in reshaping financial risk controls.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures. Updated figures and extended discussion of ergodicit

Effectiveness of psychotherapeutic, pharmacological, and combined treatments for chronic depression: a systematic review (METACHRON)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronic depressions represent a substantial part of depressive disorders and are associated with severe consequences. Several studies were performed addressing the effectiveness of psychotherapeutic, pharmacological, and combined treatments for chronic depressions. Yet, a systematic review comparing the effectiveness of multiple treatment options and considering all subtypes of chronic depressions is still missing.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Aim of this project is to summarize empirical evidence on efficacy and effectiveness of treatments for chronic depression by means of a systematic review. The primary objectives of the study are to examine, which interventions are effective; to examine, if any differences in effectiveness between active treatment options exist; and to find possible treatment effect modifiers. Psychotherapeutic, pharmacological, and combined treatments will be considered as experimental interventions and no treatment, wait-list, psychological/pharmacological placebo, treatment as usual, and other active treatments will be seen as comparators. The population of patients will include adults with chronic major depression, dysthymia, double depression, or recurrent depression without complete remission between episodes. Outcomes of the analyses are depressive symptoms, associated consequences, adverse events, and study discontinuation. Only randomized controlled trials will be considered.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Given the high prevalence and serious consequences of chronic depression and a considerable amount of existing primary studies addressing the effectiveness of different treatments the present systematic review may be of high relevance. Special attention will be given to the use of current methodological standards. Findings are likely to provide crucial information that may help clinicians to choose the appropriate treatment for chronically depressed patients.</p

Comparative efficacy of the Cognitive Behavioral Analysis System of Psychotherapy versus Supportive Psychotherapy for early onset chronic depression: design and rationale of a multisite randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Effective treatment strategies for chronic depression are urgently needed since it is not only a common and particularly disabling disorder, but is also considered treatment resistant by most clinicians. There are only a few studies on chronic depression indicating that traditional psycho- and pharmacological interventions are not as effective as in acute, episodic depression. Current medications are no more effective than those introduced 50 years ago whereas the only psychotherapy developed specifically for the subgroup of chronic depression, the Cognitive Behavioral Analysis System of Psychotherapy (CBASP), faired well in one large trial. However, CBASP has never been directly compared to a non-specific control treatment.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The present article describes the study protocol of a multisite parallel-group randomized controlled trial in Germany. The purpose of the study is to estimate the efficacy of CBASP compared to supportive psychotherapy in 268 non-medicated early-onset chronically depressed outpatients. The intervention includes 20 weeks of acute treatment with 24 individual sessions followed by 28 weeks of continuation treatment with another 8 sessions. Depressive symptoms are evaluated 20 weeks after randomisation by means of the 24-item Hamilton Rating Scale of Depression (HRSD). Secondary endpoints are depressive symptoms after 12 and 48 weeks, and remission after 12, 20, and 48 weeks. Primary outcome will be analysed using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) controlled for pre-treatment scores and site. Analyses of continuous secondary variables will be performed using linear mixed models. For remission rates, chi-squared tests and logistic regression will be applied.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The study evaluates the comparative effects of a disorder-specific psychotherapy and a well designed non-specific psychological approach in the acute and continuation treatment phase in a large sample of early-onset chronically depressed patients.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov (<a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00970437">NCT00970437</a>).</p

Universality of interpersonal psychotherapy (IPT) problem areas in Thai depressed patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many studies have shown the efficacy of interpersonal psychotherapy (IPT) on depression; however, there are limited studies concerning the universality of the IPT problem areas in different countries. This study identifies whether the interpersonal problem areas defined in the IPT manual are endorsed by Thai depressed patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Thai Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (Thai HRSD) and Thai Interpersonal Questionnaire were used to assess 90 depressed and 90 non-depressed subjects in King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, during July 2007 - January 2008. The association between interpersonal problem areas/sociodemographic variables and depressive disorder were analyzed by chi-square test. A multivariable analysis was performed by using logistic regression to identify the remaining factors associated with depressive disorder.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Most of the subjects were young to middle-aged females living in Bangkok and the Central Provinces. All four interpersonal problem areas (grief, interpersonal role disputes, role transitions, and interpersonal deficits) were increased in the depressed subjects as compared to the non-depressed subjects, as were the sociodemographic variables (low education, unemployment, low income, and having a physical illness). Logistic regression showed that all interpersonal problem areas still remained problems associated with depression (grief: adjusted OR = 6.01, 95%CI = 1.93 - 18.69, p < 0.01; interpersonal role disputes: adjusted OR = 6.01, 95%CI = 2.18 - 16.52, p < 0.01; role transitions: adjusted OR = 26.30, 95%CI = 7.84 - 88.25, p < 0.01; and interpersonal deficits: adjusted OR = 2.92, 95%CI = 1.12 - 7.60, p < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>All four interpersonal problem areas were applicable to Thai depressed patients.</p

MetaMine – A tool to detect and analyse gene patterns in their environmental context

Background Modern sequencing technologies allow rapid sequencing and bioinformatic analysis of genomes and metagenomes. With every new sequencing project a vast number of new proteins become available with many genes remaining functionally unclassified based on evidences from sequence similarities alone. Extending similarity searches with gene pattern approaches, defined as genes sharing a distinct genomic neighbourhood, have shown to significantly improve the number of functional assignments. Further functional evidences can be gained by correlating these gene patterns with prevailing environmental parameters. MetaMine was developed to approach the large pool of unclassified proteins by searching for recurrent gene patterns across habitats based on key genes. Results MetaMine is an interactive data mining tool which enables the detection of gene patterns in an environmental context. The gene pattern search starts with a user defined environmentally interesting key gene. With this gene a BLAST search is carried out against the Microbial Ecological Genomics DataBase (MEGDB) containing marine genomic and metagenomic sequences. This is followed by the determination of all neighbouring genes within a given distance and a search for functionally equivalent genes. In the final step a set of common genes present in a defined number of distinct genomes is determined. The gene patterns found are associated with their individual pattern instances describing gene order and directions. They are presented together with information about the sample and the habitat. MetaMine is implemented in Java and provided as a client/server application with a user-friendly graphical user interface. The system was evaluated with environmentally relevant genes related to the methane-cycle and carbon monoxide oxidation. Conclusion MetaMine offers a targeted, semi-automatic search for gene patterns based on expert input. The graphical user interface of MetaMine provides a user-friendly overview of the computed gene patterns for further inspection in an ecological context. Prevailing biological processes associated with a key gene can be used to infer new annotations and shape hypotheses to guide further analyses. The use-cases demonstrate that meaningful gene patterns can be quickly detected using MetaMine

Integrated psychological treatment for substance use and co-morbid anxiety or depression vs. treatment for substance use alone. A systematic review of the published literature

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is an increasing consensus in favour of integrated treatment of substance use disorders and co-morbid conditions, such as depression or anxiety. However, up till now no systematic reviews have been published.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Based on a systematic search of MedLine and PsychInfo, 9 trials of integrated treatment for depression or anxiety plus substance use disorder were identified. Where possible, meta-analyses were carried out, using random effects models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Meta-analyses were carried out for integrated treatment for depression and substance use disorders on a number of outcomes. No meta-analysis could be carried out for integrated treatment for anxiety and substance use disorders, due to multivariate reporting of outcomes in original articles. Integrated treatment for depression and substance abuse produced significant effects on percent days abstinent at follow-up. Differences in retention and symptoms were non-significant, but favoured the experimental condition. For studies of integrated treatment for co-morbid anxiety disorders and substance use disorders, no meta-analysis could be carried out. Several studies of integrated treatment for anxiety and substance use disorders reported that patients assigned to substance use treatment only fared better.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Psychotherapeutic treatment for co-morbid depression and substance use disorders is a promising approach, but is not sufficiently empirically supported at this point. Psychotherapeutic treatment for co-morbid anxiety and substance use disorders is not empirically supported. There is a need for more trials to replicate the findings from studies of integrated treatment for depression and substance use disorders, and for the development of new treatment options for co-morbid anxiety and substance use disorders.</p

Efficacy of an adjunctive brief psychodynamic psychotherapy to usual inpatient treatment of depression: rationale and design of a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: A few recent studies have found indications of the effectiveness of inpatient psychotherapy for depression, usually of an extended duration. However, there is a lack of controlled studies in this area and to date no study of adequate quality on brief psychodynamic psychotherapy for depression during short inpatient stay exists. The present article describes the protocol of a study that will examine the relative efficacy, the cost-effectiveness and the cost-utility of adding an Inpatient Brief Psychodynamic Psychotherapy to pharmacotherapy and treatment-as-usual for inpatients with unipolar depression. METHODS/DESIGN: The study is a one-month randomized controlled trial with a two parallel group design and a 12-month naturalistic follow-up. A sample of 130 consecutive adult inpatients with unipolar depression and Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale score over 18 will be recruited. The study is carried out in the university hospital section for mood disorders in Lausanne, Switzerland. Patients are assessed upon admission, and at 1-, 3- and 12- month follow-ups. Inpatient therapy is a manualized brief intervention, combining the virtues of inpatient setting and of time-limited dynamic therapies (focal orientation, fixed duration, resource-oriented interventions). Treatment-as-usual represents the best level of practice for a minimal treatment condition usually proposed to inpatients. Final analyses will follow an intention-to-treat strategy. Depressive symptomatology is the primary outcome and secondary outcome includes measures of psychiatric symptomatology, psychosocial role functioning, and psychodynamic-emotional functioning. The mediating role of the therapeutic alliance is also examined. Allocation to treatment groups uses a stratified block randomization method with permuted block. To guarantee allocation concealment, randomization is done by an independent researcher. DISCUSSION: Despite the large number of studies on treatment of depression, there is a clear lack of controlled research in inpatient psychotherapy during the acute phase of a major depressive episode. Research on brief therapy is important to take into account current short lengths of stay in psychiatry. The current study has the potential to scientifically inform appropriate inpatient treatment. This study is the first to address the issue of the economic evaluation of inpatient psychotherapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (ACTRN12612000909820)