Optimal Investment in the Development of Oil and Gas Field

Let an oil and gas field consists of clusters in each of which an investor can launch at most one project. During the implementation of a particular project, all characteristics are known, including annual production volumes, necessary investment volumes, and profit. The total amount of investments that the investor spends on developing the field during the entire planning period we know. It is required to determine which projects to implement in each cluster so that, within the total amount of investments, the profit for the entire planning period is maximum. The problem under consideration is NP-hard. However, it is solved by dynamic programming with pseudopolynomial time complexity. Nevertheless, in practice, there are additional constraints that do not allow solving the problem with acceptable accuracy at a reasonable time. Such restrictions, in particular, are annual production volumes. In this paper, we considered only the upper constraints that are dictated by the pipeline capacity. For the investment optimization problem with such additional restrictions, we obtain qualitative results, propose an approximate algorithm, and investigate its properties. Based on the results of a numerical experiment, we conclude that the developed algorithm builds a solution close (in terms of the objective function) to the optimal one

Adaptive Investment Strategies For Periodic Environments

In this paper, we present an adaptive investment strategy for environments with periodic returns on investment. In our approach, we consider an investment model where the agent decides at every time step the proportion of wealth to invest in a risky asset, keeping the rest of the budget in a risk-free asset. Every investment is evaluated in the market via a stylized return on investment function (RoI), which is modeled by a stochastic process with unknown periodicities and levels of noise. For comparison reasons, we present two reference strategies which represent the case of agents with zero-knowledge and complete-knowledge of the dynamics of the returns. We consider also an investment strategy based on technical analysis to forecast the next return by fitting a trend line to previous received returns. To account for the performance of the different strategies, we perform some computer experiments to calculate the average budget that can be obtained with them over a certain number of time steps. To assure for fair comparisons, we first tune the parameters of each strategy. Afterwards, we compare the performance of these strategies for RoIs with different periodicities and levels of noise.Comment: Paper submitted to Advances in Complex Systems (November, 2007) 22 pages, 9 figure

A 100ks XMM-Newton view of the Seyfert 1.8 ESO113-G010. I. Discovery of large X-ray variability and study of the FeKalpha line complex

(Abridged) We present here a long (100ks) XMM-Newton follow-up of the Seyfert 1.8 galaxy ESO113-G010 performed in November 2005, in order to study over a longer time-scale its main X-ray properties. The source was found in a higher/softer time-averaged flux state, and timing analysis of this source reveals strong, rapid variability. The Power Spectral Density (PSD) analysis indicates (at 95% c.l.) a break at 3.7 x 10^-4 Hz. This cut-off frequency is comparable to those measured in some other rapidly-variable Seyferts, such as MCG-6-30-15 and NGC4051. From the mass-luminosity-time-scale, we infer that M_BH ranges from 4 x 10^6 - 10^7 M_odot and the source is accreting at or close to the Eddington rate (or even higher). The existing data cannot distinguish between spectral pivoting of the continuum and a two-component origin for the spectral softening, primarily because the data do not span a broad enough flux range. In the case of the two-component model, the fractional offsets measured in the flux-flux plots increase significantly toward higher energies (similar to what is observed in MCG-6-30-15) as expected if there exists a constant reflection component. Contrary to May 2001, no significant highly redshifted emission line is observed (which might be related to the source flux level), while two narrow emission lines at about 6.5keV and 7keV are observed. The S/N is not high enough to establish if the lines are variable or constant. As already suggested by the 2001 observation, no significant constant narrow 6.4keV FeK line (EW~32eV) is observed, hence excluding any dominant emission from distant cold matter such as a torus in this Seyfert type 1.8 galaxy.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A, 10 pages, 11 figures, 2 table

Evolutionary estimation of a Coupled Markov Chain credit risk model

There exists a range of different models for estimating and simulating credit risk transitions to optimally manage credit risk portfolios and products. In this chapter we present a Coupled Markov Chain approach to model rating transitions and thereby default probabilities of companies. As the likelihood of the model turns out to be a non-convex function of the parameters to be estimated, we apply heuristics to find the ML estimators. To this extent, we outline the model and its likelihood function, and present both a Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm, as well as an Evolutionary Optimization algorithm to maximize the likelihood function. Numerical results are shown which suggest a further application of evolutionary optimization techniques for credit risk management

On the Lifshitz tail in the density of states of a superconductor with magnetic impurities

We argue that any superconductor with magnetic impurities is gapless due to a Lifshitz tail in the density of states extending to zero energy. At low energy the density of states $\nu(E \to 0)$ remains finite. We show that fluctuations in the impurity distribution produce regions of suppressed superconductivity, which are responsible for the low energy density of states.Comment: 4 pages, uuencoded latex file + ps figure file

Signatures of the disk-jet coupling in the Broad-line Radio Quasar 4C+74.26

Here we explore the disk-jet connection in the broad-line radio quasar 4C+74.26, utilizing the results of the multiwavelength monitoring of the source. The target is unique in that its radiative output at radio wavelengths is dominated by a moderately-beamed nuclear jet, at optical frequencies by the accretion disk, and in the hard X-ray range by the disk corona. Our analysis reveals a correlation (local and global significance of 96\% and 98\%, respectively) between the optical and radio bands, with the disk lagging behind the jet by $250 \pm 42$ days. We discuss the possible explanation for this, speculating that the observed disk and the jet flux changes are generated by magnetic fluctuations originating within the innermost parts of a truncated disk, and that the lag is related to a delayed radiative response of the disk when compared with the propagation timescale of magnetic perturbations along relativistic outflow. This scenario is supported by the re-analysis of the NuSTAR data, modelled in terms of a relativistic reflection from the disk illuminated by the coronal emission, which returns the inner disk radius $R_{\rm in}/R_{\rm ISCO} =35^{+40}_{-16}$. We discuss the global energetics in the system, arguing that while the accretion proceeds at the Eddington rate, with the accretion-related bolometric luminosity $L_{\rm bol} \sim 9 \times 10^{46}$ erg s$^{-1}$ $\sim 0.2 L_{\rm Edd}$, the jet total kinetic energy $L_\textrm{j} \sim 4 \times 10^{44}$ erg s$^{-1}$, inferred from the dynamical modelling of the giant radio lobes in the source, constitutes only a small fraction of the available accretion power.Comment: 9 pages and 6 figures, ApJ accepte

Donepezil Effects on Mood in Patients with Schizophrenia and Schizoaffective Disorder

Donepezil, 5 mg/d for 6 wk then 10 mg/d for 6 wk, and placebo daily for 12 wk in a double-blind cross-over paradigm, was added to the therapeutic regimen of 13 patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorders, clinically stable on atypical antipsychotic medications. Patients had varying degrees of depressive symptoms, ranging from no depression to clinically significant depression. There was no worsening or induction of depression in individual patients or the group as a whole. In addition there was a statistically significant antidepressant effect in the group as a whole during the donepezil condition and a clinically significant antidepressant effect in the patients with clinically significant depressive symptoms, although there were not enough depressed patients in the group to conclude that donepezil may have antidepressant effects. Thus, in this study, donepezil did not induce or worsen depressive symptoms in schizophrenic and schizoaffective disorder patients

Two Distinct Categories of Focal Deletions in Cancer Genomes

One of the key questions about genomic alterations in cancer is whether they are functional in the sense of contributing to the selective advantage of tumor cells. The frequency with which an alteration occurs might reflect its ability to increase cancer cell growth, or alternatively, enhanced instability of a locus may increase the frequency with which it is found to be aberrant in tumors, regardless of oncogenic impact. Here we\u27ve addressed this on a genome-wide scale for cancer-associated focal deletions, which are known to pinpoint both tumor suppressor genes (tumor suppressors) and unstable loci. Based on DNA copy number analysis of over one-thousand human cancers representing ten different tumor types, we observed five loci with focal deletion frequencies above 5%, including the A2BP1 gene at 16p13.3 and the MACROD2 gene at 20p12.1. However, neither RNA expression nor functional studies support a tumor suppressor role for either gene. Further analyses suggest instead that these are sites of increased genomic instability and that they resemble common fragile sites (CFS). Genome-wide analysis revealed properties of CFS-like recurrent deletions that distinguish them from deletions affecting tumor suppressor genes, including their isolation at specific loci away from other genomic deletion sites, a considerably smaller deletion size, and dispersal throughout the affected locus rather than assembly at a common site of overlap. Additionally, CFS-like deletions have less impact on gene expression and are enriched in cell lines compared to primary tumors. We show that loci affected by CFS-like deletions are often distinct from known common fragile sites. Indeed, we find that each tumor tissue type has its own spectrum of CFS-like deletions, and that colon cancers have many more CFS-like deletions than other tumor types. We present simple rules that can pinpoint focal deletions that are not CFS-like and more likely to affect functional tumor suppressors