MEASURING COMPETITION FOR TEXTILES: DOES THE U.S. MAKE THE GRADE?

U.S. textile manufacturing is coming under increasing pressure from foreign competition. This paper evaluates the U.S. competitive position in the yarn segment using established quantifiable measures and provides an overall competitive assessment. The study found the industry in a relatively weak competitive position but that U.S. competitive position is improving.competitiveness, cotton yarn, revealed comparative advantage, tariff equivalent, International Relations/Trade, F29, L67, O57,

Predicting the Corn Basis in the Texas Triangle Area

This study develops a new and straightforward economic model of basis forecasting that outperforms the simple three-year average method suggested in much of the literature. We use monthly data of the corn basis in the Texas Triangle Area from February 1997 to July 2008. The results and the graphs indicate that the new model based on economic fundamentals performs better than basis estimates using a three-year moving average.Hedging, basis, corn, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics, Marketing, Risk and Uncertainty,

Predicting the Corn Basis in the Texas Triangle Area

Shifting patterns of corn use as a result of the ethanol boom may be causing basis levels to change across the United States, creating the need for methods to predict basis levels in dynamic conditions. This study develops a new and straightforward economic model of basis forecasting that outperforms the simple three-year average method suggested in much of the literature. We use monthly data of the corn basis in the Texas Triangle Area from February 1997 to July 2008. The results show the new model based on economic fundamentals performs better than basis estimates using a three-year moving average.basis, corn, grain marketing, Texas Triangle Area, Agribusiness, Marketing,

To boldly go:an occam-π mission to engineer emergence

Future systems will be too complex to design and implement explicitly. Instead, we will have to learn to engineer complex behaviours indirectly: through the discovery and application of local rules of behaviour, applied to simple process components, from which desired behaviours predictably emerge through dynamic interactions between massive numbers of instances. This paper describes a process-oriented architecture for fine-grained concurrent systems that enables experiments with such indirect engineering. Examples are presented showing the differing complex behaviours that can arise from minor (non-linear) adjustments to low-level parameters, the difficulties in suppressing the emergence of unwanted (bad) behaviour, the unexpected relationships between apparently unrelated physical phenomena (shown up by their separate emergence from the same primordial process swamp) and the ability to explore and engineer completely new physics (such as force fields) by their emergence from low-level process interactions whose mechanisms can only be imagined, but not built, at the current time

Sino-U.S. and Sino-E.U. Textile Safeguard Agreements: Comparing the Effects to Free Market Conditions

The effects of Sino-US and Sino-EU safeguard agreements on US, China and world cotton and textile sectors are investigated using a partial equilibrium model. The effects are compared to a free trade scenario under the provisions of the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC). The two agreements capping Chinese textile exports would decrease China's textile and apparel exports, production and domestic consumption by an average 1.57 percent, 0.63 percent and, 0.32 percent respectively. The safeguard agreements cause an increase in the U.S. cotton textile price index and a slight decrease in U.S. net textile imports and textile consumption. The agreements cause a decrease in the world cotton price and the quantity of cotton traded, but these trends reverse at safeguard expiration. The results generally support the view that the safeguard agreements forestall the effects of free trade in textiles and apparel rather than creating long lasting shifts in the textile trade.International Relations/Trade,

What's really going on in the South China Sea?

Most analysts and commentators portray China's conduct in the South China Sea as a series of aggressive norm violations by an emerging peer competitor to the United States. We argue that this narrative misreads both the substance and dynamics of recent Chinese policy. Since 2016, China has strenuously sought - and largely managed - not to be in technical violation of the Philippines Arbitration Tribunal ruling despite having publicly disavowed it and has attempted to position itself as a champion of win-win co-operation. This stands in stark contrast to the previous four years in which China rather shockingly began asserting itself with little regard for either legality or diplomatic nicety - the period in which the "aggressive China" narrative gelled. What explains China's whiplash behaviour? Why has the international community largely failed to notice recent changes and adjust the narrative accordingly? We argue that the answers to these questions lie in an eclectic appeal to bureaucratic struggles, the regime's two-level game balancing domestic and international pressures, and psychological considerations. These do not, however, provide satisfactory accounts either of China's behaviour or of the international response in the absence of recognising the crucial importance of second-order rules for making, interpreting, and applying first-order rules in the international system. Social practices of rule-making, in short, provide vital context. Our analysis suggests a series of takeaways both for International Relations theory and for managing relations with China

Cotton Trade Liberalizations and Domestic Agricultural Policy Reforms: A Partial Equilibrium Analysis

This paper analyzed the effects of trade liberalizing reforms in the world cotton market using a partial equilibrium model. The simulation results indicated that a removal of domestic subsidies and border tariffs for cotton would increase the amount of world cotton trade by an average of 4% in the next five years and world cotton prices by an average of 12% over the same time horizon. The findings indicated that under the liberalization policy, the United States would lose part of its export share to Brazil, Australia, and Africa. Furthermore, net cotton importing countries with minimum domestic and trade distortions would import less because of higher cotton prices whereas net cotton importing countries that subsidize domestic production and/or impose border tariffs (China, European Union, Pakistan, and Turkey) would significantly increase their imports.Agricultural and Food Policy,

The Impact of India's Cotton Yield on U.S. and World Cotton Markets

Cotton is India’s main cash crop. It contributes to the livelihood of 60 million people and accounts for 30 percent of the country’s agricultural domestic product (Barwale et al., 2004). Total cotton acreage in India is estimated at 9 million hectares, the largest in the world (Gandhi, 2006). About 65 percent of cotton production activities are rainfed and subject to the vagaries of weather. Cotton is grown in nine states, spread over three agroclimatic zones with different planting schedules. Planting usually ends by the first week of June in northern regions (Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan), by mid-August in the central region (Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh), and by the first week of September in parts of the south (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu). A small summer cotton crop in the south (Tamil Nadu) is planted in January and February (FAS, 2006).Agricultural and Food Policy,

The 2007 USDA Farm Bill Proposal: Implications for the U.S. Cotton Industry

The proposed 2007 farm bill contains fundamental shifts in policy option mainly dictated by a desire to render the U.S. agriculture “more market oriented’ and the programs less costly to the U.S. treasury. The proposal adopts a revenue-based counter cyclical payment while maintaining the current price-based counter cyclical payment scheme. Under the revenue-based system, payment would be triggered when the actual national revenue per acre falls below the national target revenue per acre. The choice is left to producers who will be allowed a one time option to select one of these two schemes.Agricultural and Food Policy,