ngVLA Key Science Goal 5 Understanding the Formation and Evolution of Black Holes in the Era of Multi-Messenger Astronomy

The next-generation Very Large Array (ngVLA) will be a powerful telescope for finding and studying black holes across the entire mass range. High-resolution imaging abilities will allow the separation of low-luminosity black holes in the local Universe from background sources, thereby providing critical constraints on the mass function, formation, and growth of black holes. Its combination of sensitivity and angular resolution will provide new constraints on the physics of black hole accretion and jet formation. Combined with facilities across the spectrum and gravitational wave observatories, the ngVLA will provide crucial constraints on the interaction of black holes with their environments, with specific implications for the relationship between evolution of galaxies and the emission of gravitational waves from in-spiraling supermassive black holes and potential implications for stellar mass and intermediate mass black holes. The ngVLA will identify the radio counterparts to transient sources discovered by electromagnetic, gravitational wave, and neutrino observatories, and its high-resolution, fast-mapping capabilities will make it the preferred instrument to pinpoint electromagnetic counterparts to events such as supermassive black hole mergers. The National Radio Astronomy Observatory is a facility of the National Science Foundation operated under cooperative agreement by Associated Universities, Inc. Part of this research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Consumer Demand under Price Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Market for Cigarettes

We develop a demand model for goods that are subject to habit formation. We show that consumption plans of forward-looking individuals depend on preferences, current period prices, and individual beliefs about the evolution of future prices. Moreover, an increase in price uncertainty reduces consumption along the optimal path. With smoking as our application, we test the predictions of our model using a unique data set of prices for cigarettes and the restricted-use version of the National Education Longitudinal Study. Our estimation results suggest that teenagers who live in metropolitan areas with a large amount of cigarette price volatility have, on average, significantly lower levels of cigarette consumption. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.