Is Infidelity Predictable? Using Explainable Machine Learning to Identify the Most Important Predictors of Infidelity.

Infidelity can be a disruptive event in a romantic relationship with a devastating impact on both partners' well-being. Thus, there are benefits to identifying factors that can explain or predict infidelity, but prior research has not utilized methods that would provide the relative importance of each predictor. We used a machine learning algorithm, random forest (a type of interpretable highly non-linear decision tree), to predict in-person and online infidelity across two studies (one individual and one dyadic, N = 1,295). We also used a game theoretic explanation technique, Shapley values, which allowed us to estimate the effect size of each predictor variable on infidelity. The present study showed that infidelity was somewhat predictable overall and interpersonal factors such as relationship satisfaction, love, desire, and relationship length were the most predictive of online and in person infidelity. The results suggest that addressing relationship difficulties early in the relationship may help prevent infidelity

Characterization and Modeling of Stress Evolution During Nickel Silicides Formation

An curvature measurement technique was used to characterize the stress evolution during reaction of a Ni film and a silicon substrate to form nickel silicide. Stress changes were measured at each stage of the silicide growth. When the nickel films were subjected to long-time isothermal annealing, stresses that developed during silicide formation gradually relaxed. Fitting the experimental results with a kinetic model provides insight into the volumetric strain and relaxation behavior of the reacting film and the reaction product.Singapore-MIT Alliance (SMA

Physical activity and risk of all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in diabetic adults from Great Britain: pooled analysis of 10 population-based cohorts

OBJECTIVE To examine associations between specific types of physical activity and all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in a large nationally representative sample of adults with diabetes from Great Britain. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS There were a total of 3,038 participants (675 deaths) with diabetes in the Health Survey for England and the Scottish Health Surveys conducted between 1997 and 2008. Participants aged ‡50 years at baseline were followed up for an average of 75.2 months for all-cause and CVD mortality. Data were collected on selfreported frequency, duration, and intensity of participation in sports and exercise, walking, and domestic physical activity, from which the number of MET-hours/ week were derived. Sex-specific medians of time spent in each type of physical activity (for those physically active)were calculated, and Cox proportional hazards regression conducted to examine type-specific associations between the level of physical activity and all-cause and CVD mortality risk. RESULTS Inverse associations with all-cause and CVD mortality were observed for overall physical activity in a dose-response manner after adjusting for covariates. Compared with those who individuals were inactive, participants who reported some activity, but below the recommended amount, or who met the physical activity recommendations had a 26% (95%CI 39–11) and 35%(95% CI 47–21) lower all-cause mortality, respectively. Similar results were found for below/above median physical activity levels. Sports and exercise participation was inversely associated with all-cause (but not CVD)mortality, as were above average levels of walking. Domestic physical activity was not associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS Moderate physical activity levels were associated with better prognosis in diabetic adults

Alcohol and Brain Development in Adolescents and Young Adults: A Systematic Review of the Literature and Advisory Report of the Health Council of the Netherlands

Young people, whose brains are still developing, might entail a greater vulnerability to the effects of alcohol consumption on brain function and development. A committee of experts of the Health Council of the Netherlands evaluated the state of scientific knowledge regarding the question whether alcohol negatively influences brain development in young people. A systematic literature search for prospective studies was performed in PubMed and PsychINFO, for longitudinal studies of adolescents or young adults ranging between 12 and 24 y of age at baseline, investigating the relation between alcohol use and outcome measures of brain structure and activity, cognitive functioning, educational achievement, or alcohol use disorder (AUD), with measures at baseline and follow-up of the outcome of interest. Data were extracted from original articles and study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. A total of 77 studies were included, 31 of which were of sufficient quality in relation to the study objectives. There were indications that the gray matter of the brain develops abnormally in young people who drink alcohol. In addition, the more often young people drink or the younger they start, the higher the risk of developing AUD later in life. The evidence on white matter volume or quality, brain activity, cognitive function, and educational achievement is still limited or unclear. The committee found indications that alcohol consumption can have a negative effect on brain development in adolescents and young adults and entails a risk of later AUD. The committee therefore considers it a wise choice for adolescents and young adults not to drink alcohol.Clinical epidemiolog

Fire and the relative roles of weather, climate and landscape characteristics in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence forest of Canada

Question: In deciduous-dominated forest landscapes, what are the relative roles of fire weather, climate, human and biophysical landscape characteristics for explaining variation in large fire occurrence and area burned? Location: The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence forest of Canada. Methods: We characterized the recent (1959-1999) regime of large (≥ 200 ha) fires in 26 deciduous-dominated landscapes and analysed these data in an information-theoretic framework to compare six hypotheses that related fire occurrence and area burned to fire weather severity, climate normals, population and road densities, and enduring landscape characteristics such as surficial deposits and large lakes. Results: 392 large fires burned 833 698 ha during the study period, annually burning on average 0.07% ± 0.42% of forested area in each landscape. Fire activity was strongly seasonal, with most fires and area burned occurring in May and June. A combination of antecedent-winter precipitation, fire season precipitation deficit/surplus and percent of landscape covered by well-drained surficial deposits best explained fire occurrence and area burned. Fire occurrence varied only as a function of fire weather and climate variables, whereas area burned was also explained by percent cover of aspen and pine stands, human population density and two enduring characteristics: percent cover of large water bodies and glaciofluvial deposits. Conclusion: Understanding the relative role of these variables may help design adaptation strategies for forecasted increases in fire weather severity by allowing (1) prioritization of landscapes according to enduring characteristics and (2) management of their composition so that substantially increased fire activity would be necessary to transform landscape structure and composition

Percutaneous Preoperative Biliary Drainage for Resectable Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma: No Association with Survival and No Increase in Seeding Metastases

Background: Endoscopic biliary drainage (EBD) and percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD) are both used to resolve jaundice before surgery for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC). PTBD has been associated with seeding metastases. The aim of this study was to compare overall survival (OS) and the incidence of initial seeding metastases that potentially influence survival in patients with preoperative PTBD versus EBD. Methods: Between 1991 and 2012, a total of 278 patients underwent preoperative biliary drainage and resection of PHC at 2 institutions in the Netherlands and the United States. Of these, 33 patients were excluded for postoperative mortality. Among the 245 included patients, 88 patients who underwent preoperative PTBD (with or without previous EBD) were compared to 157 patients who underwent EBD only. Survival analysis was done with Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression with propensity score adjustment. Results: Unadjusted median OS was comparable between the PTBD group (35 months) and EBD-only group (41 months; P = 0.26). After adjustment for propensity score, OS between the PTBD group and EBD-only group was similar (hazard ratio, 1.05; 95 % confidence interval, 0.74–1.49; P = 0.80). Seeding metastases in the laparotomy scar occurred as initial recurrence in 7 patients, including 3 patients (3.4 %) in the PTBD group and 4 patients (2.7 %) in the EBD-only group (P = 0.71). No patient had an initial recurrence in percutaneous catheter tracts. Conclusions: The present study found no effect of PTBD on survival compared to patients with EBD and no increase in seeding metastases that developed as initial recurrence. These data suggest that PTBD can safely be used in preoperative management of PHC

Breaking the photoswitch speed limit

The forthcoming generation of materials, including artificial muscles, recyclable and healable systems, photochromic heterogeneous catalysts, or tailorable supercapacitors, relies on the fundamental concept of rapid switching between two or more discrete forms in the solid state. Herein, we report a breakthrough in the “speed limit” of photochromic molecules on the example of sterically-demanding spiropyran derivatives through their integration within solvent-free confined space, allowing for engineering of the photoresponsive moiety environment and tailoring their photoisomerization rates. The presented conceptual approach realized through construction of the spiropyran environment results in ~1000 times switching enhancement even in the solid state compared to its behavior in solution, setting a record in the field of photochromic compounds. Moreover, integration of two distinct photochromic moieties in the same framework provided access to a dynamic range of rates as well as complementary switching in the material’s optical profile, uncovering a previously inaccessible pathway for interstate rapid photoisomerization.</p

Pregnancy Outcomes in Women After Arterial Switch Operation for Transposition of the Great Arteries: Results From ROPAC (Registry of Pregnancy and Cardiac Disease) of the European Society of Cardiology EURObservational Research Programme

Background In the past 3 decades, the arterial switch procedure has replaced the atrial switch procedure as treatment of choice for transposition of the great arteries. Although survival is superior after the arterial switch procedure, data on pregnancy outcomes are scarce and transposition of the great arteries after arterial switch is not yet included in the modified World Health Organization classification of maternal cardiovascular risk. Methods and Results The ROPAC (Registry of Pregnancy and Cardiac disease) is an international prospective registry of pregnant women with cardiac disease, part of the European Society of Cardiology EURObservational Research Programme. Pregnancy outcomes in all women after an arterial switch procedure for transposition of the great arteries are described. The primary end point was a major adverse cardiovascular event, defined as combined end point of maternal death, supraventricular or ventricular arrhythmias requiring treatment, heart failure, aortic dissection, endocarditis, ischemic coronary events, and thromboembolic events. Altogether, 41 pregnant women (mean age, 26.7±3.9 years) were included, and there was no maternal mortality. A major adverse cardiovascular event occurred in 2 women (4.9%): heart failure in one (2.4%) and ventricular tachycardia in another (2.4%). One woman experienced fetal loss, whereas no neonatal mortality was observed. Conclusions Women after an arterial switch procedure for transposition of the great arteries tolerate pregnancy well, with a favorable maternal and fetal outcome. During counseling, most women should be reassured that the risk of pregnancy is low. Classification as modified World Health Organization risk class II seems appropriate