Bayesian model averaging approach in health effects studies: Sensitivity analyses using PM10 and cardiopulmonary hospital admissions in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania and simulated data

AbstractGeneralized Additive Models (GAMs) with natural cubic splines (NS) as smoothing functions have become a standard analytical tool in time series studies of health effects of air pollution. However, standard model selection procedures ignore the model uncertainty that may lead to biased estimates, in particular those of the lagged effects. We addressed this issue by Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach which accounts for model uncertainty by combining information from all possible models where GAMs and NS were used. Firstly, we conducted a sensitivity analysis with simulation studies for Bayesian model averaging with different calibrated hyperparameters contained in the posterior model probabilities. Our results indicated the importance of selecting the optimum degree of lagging for variables, based not only on maximizing the likelihood, but also by considering the possible effects of concurvity, consistency of degree of lagging, and biological plausibility. This was illustrated by analyses of the Allegheny County Air Pollution Study (ACAPS) where the quantity of interest was the relative risk of cardiopulmonary hospital admissions for a 20 μg/m3 increase in PM10 values for the current day. Results showed that the posterior means of the relative risk and 95% posterior probability intervals were close to each other under different choices of the prior distributions. Simulation results were consistent with these findings. It was also found that using lag variables in the model when there is only same day effect, may underestimate the relative risk attributed to the same day effect

When the Transmission of Culture Is Child's Play

Background: Humans frequently engage in arbitrary, conventional behavior whose primary purpose is to identify with cultural in-groups. The propensity for doing so is established early in human ontogeny as children become progressively enmeshed in their own cultural milieu. This is exemplified by their habitual replication of causally redundant actions shown to them by adults. Yet children seemingly ignore such actions shown to them by peers. How then does culture get transmitted intra-generationally? Here we suggest the answer might be 'in play'. Principal Findings: Using a diffusion chain design preschoolers first watched an adult retrieve a toy from a novel apparatus using a series of actions, some of which were obviously redundant. These children could then show another child how to open the apparatus, who in turn could show a third child. When the adult modeled the actions in a playful manner they were retained down to the third child at higher rates than when the adult seeded them in a functionally oriented way. Conclusions: Our results draw attention to the possibility that play might serve a critical function in the transmission of human culture by providing a mechanism for arbitrary ideas to spread between children