The long-run Fisher effect: can it be tested?

Empirical support for the long-run Fisher effect, a hypothesis that a permanent change in inflation leads to an equal change in the nominal interest rate, has been hard to come by. This paper provides a plausible explanation of why past studies have been unable to find support for the long-run Fisher effect. This paper argues that the necessary permanent change to the inflation rate following a monetary shock has not occurred in the industrialized countries of Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Instead, this paper shows that inflation in these countries follows a mean-reverting, fractionally integrated, long-memory process, not the nonstationary inflation process that is integrated of order one or larger found in previous studies of the Fisher effect. Applying a bivariate maximum likelihood estimator to a fractionally integrated model of inflation and the nominal interest rate, the inflation rate in all seventeen countries is found to be a highly persistent, fractionally integrated process with a positive differencing parameter significantly less than one. Hence, in the long run, inflation in these countries will be unaffected by a monetary shock, and a test of the long-run Fisher effect will be invalid and uninformative as to the truthfulness of the long-run Fisher effect hypothesis.

Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling

This paper extends the existing fully parametric Bayesian literature on stochastic volatility to allow for more general return distributions. Instead of specifying a particular distribution for the return innovation, we use nonparametric Bayesian methods to flexibly model the skewness and kurtosis of the distribution while continuing to model the dynamics of volatility with a parametric structure. Our semiparametric Bayesian approach provides a full characterization of parametric and distributional uncertainty. We present a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling approach to estimation with theoretical and computational issues for simulation from the posterior predictive distributions. The new model is assessed based on simulation evidence, an empirical example, and comparison to parametric models.Econometric models ; Stochastic analysis

Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling

This paper extends the existing fully parametric Bayesian literature on stochastic volatility to allow for more general return distributions. Instead of specifying a particular distribution for the return innovation, nonparametric Bayesian methods are used to flexibly model the skewness and kurtosis of the distribution while the dynamics of volatility continue to be modeled with a parametric structure. Our semiparametric Bayesian approach provides a full characterization of parametric and distributional uncertainty. A Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling approach to estimation is presented with theoretical and computational issues for simulation from the posterior predictive distributions. The new model is assessed based on simulation evidence, an empirical example, and comparison to parametric models.Dirichlet process mixture, MCMC, block sampler

Bayesian Semiparametric Stochastic Volatility Modeling

This paper extends the existing fully parametric Bayesian literature on stochastic volatility to allow for more general return distributions. Instead of specifying a particular distribution for the return innovation, nonparametric Bayesian methods are used to flexibly model the skewness and kurtosis of the distribution while the dynamics of volatility continue to be modeled with a parametric structure. Our semiparametric Bayesian approach provides a full characterization of parametric and distributional uncertainty. A Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling approach to estimation is presented with theoretical and computational issues for simulation from the posterior predictive distributions. An empirical example compares the new model to standard parametric stochastic volatility modelsClassification-JEL:

The life and health challenges of young Malaysian couples: results from a stakeholder consensus and engagement study to support non-communicable disease prevention

BACKGROUND: Malaysia faces burgeoning obesity and diabetes epidemics with a 250% and 88% increase respectively between 1996 and 2006. Identifying the health challenges of young adults in Malaysia, who constitute 27.5 % of the population, is critical for NCD prevention. The aim of the study was two-fold: (1) to achieve consensus amongst stakeholders on the most important challenge impacting the health of young adults, and (2) to engage with stakeholders to formulate a NCD prevention framework.METHODS: The Delphi Technique was utilised to achieve group consensus around the most important life and health challenges that young adults face in Malaysia. Subsequently, the results of the consensus component were shared with the stakeholders in an engagement workshop to obtain input on a NCD prevention framework.RESULTS: We found that life stress was a significant concern. It would seem that the apathy towards pursuing or maintaining a healthy lifestyle among young adults may be significantly influenced by the broader distal determinant of life stress. The high cost of living is suggested to be the main push factor for young working adults towards attaining better financial security to improve their livelihood. In turn, this leads to a more stressful lifestyle with less time to focus on healthier lifestyle choices.CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlight a pivotal barrier to healthier lifestyles. By assisting young adults to cope with daily living coupled with realistic opportunities to make healthier dietary choices, be more active, and less sedentary could assist in the development of NCD health promotion strategies<br/

Optimal Composite Material for Low Cost Fabrication of Large Composite Aerospace Structures using NASA Resins or POSS Nanoparticle Modifications

Thermoplastic laminates in situ consolidated via tape or tow placement require full mechanical properties. Realizing full properties requires resin crystallinity to be controlled - partial crystallinity leads to unacceptably low laminate compression properties. There are two approaches: utilize an amorphous matrix resin; or place material made from a semi-crystalline resin featuring kinetics faster than the process. In this paper, a matrix resin evaluation and trade study was completed with commercial and NASA amorphous polyimides on the one hand, and with PEKK mixed with POSS nanoparticles for accelerated crystallinity growth on the other. A new thermoplastic impregnated material, 6 mm wide (0.25-in) AS-4 carbon/LaRC(TradeMark)8515 dry polyimide tow, was fabricated. Since LaRC(TradeMark)8515 is fully amorphous, it attains full properties following in situ consolidation, with no post processing required to build crystallinity. The tow in situ processing was demonstrated via in situ thermoplastic filament winding it into rings

Integrating the Transtheoretical Model: A Quantitative Analysis in the Area of Sun Exposure

The constructs involved in the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) have been shown to have similar relationships to the Stages of Change across a variety of behaviors. While much work has been done investigating the way the constructs interact cross-sectionally and longitudinally, a completely integrated look at all the constructs of the TTM has not yet been successful. This study integrated all constructs of the TTM related to increase of sun protective behavior across three time points. The sample used in this study is a portion of a sample collected for three larger, multiple behavior intervention studies. Assessments were collected at baseline, 6-, and 12-month intervals. At baseline, these larger samples included 1472 people in worksites, 1816 parents, and 3875 physician patients at risk for sun exposure. Of these, 341 worksite, 4 31 parent, and 1012 physician had data at all three time points with all necessary variables. Structural equation modeling was utilized to evaluate panel designs involving seven TTM constructs at baseline, 6-, and 12-month time points. Different models were run within each pre-action Stage of Change. Due to the complexity of the model, a step approach was taken to evaluate the relationships among the constructs. The Precontemplation group showed relationships between Experiential Processes, Pros and sun protective behavior. The Contemplation and Preparation samples both showed important relationships between Cons and Confidence with behavior. There were more significant paths in the Preparation model indicating greater variance possibly due to more stage movement at follow-up time points. While not all paths found confirm expectations based on the TTM, there was strong support for the theory. Additional work needs to be done to further investigate these relationships among individual stage transitions or transition groups. A better understanding of the empirical relationships between these constructs will help further understanding of the theory and improve interventions based on the TTM