Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict and monitor the number of beds occupied during a SARS outbreak in a tertiary hospital in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: The main objective of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to make real-time predictions on the number of beds occupied in Tan Tock Seng Hospital, during the recent SARS outbreak. METHODS: This is a retrospective study design. Hospital admission and occupancy data for isolation beds was collected from Tan Tock Seng hospital for the period 14th March 2003 to 31st May 2003. The main outcome measure was daily number of isolation beds occupied by SARS patients. Among the covariates considered were daily number of people screened, daily number of people admitted (including observation, suspect and probable cases) and days from the most recent significant event discovery. We utilized the following strategy for the analysis. Firstly, we split the outbreak data into two. Data from 14th March to 21st April 2003 was used for model development. We used structural ARIMA models in an attempt to model the number of beds occupied. Estimation is via the maximum likelihood method using the Kalman filter. For the ARIMA model parameters, we considered the simplest parsimonious lowest order model. RESULTS: We found that the ARIMA (1,0,3) model was able to describe and predict the number of beds occupied during the SARS outbreak well. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the training set and validation set were 5.7% and 8.6% respectively, which we found was reasonable for use in the hospital setting. Furthermore, the model also provided three-day forecasts of the number of beds required. Total number of admissions and probable cases admitted on the previous day were also found to be independent prognostic factors of bed occupancy. CONCLUSION: ARIMA models provide useful tools for administrators and clinicians in planning for real-time bed capacity during an outbreak of an infectious disease such as SARS. The model could well be used in planning for bed-capacity during outbreaks of other infectious diseases as well

Transverse imaging and simulation of dsDNA electrophoresis in microfabricated glass channels

We have observed the non-uniform distribution of DNA molecules during PAGE in a microfabricated system. Confocal laser scanning microscopy was used to visualize fluorescently labeled DNA during electrophoretic migration. The distribution of double-stranded DNA larger than 100 bp is observed to transition from a center-biased motion on the transverse plane 1 cm downstream from injection to an edge-biased motion 2 cm downstream. Although this distribution increased with increasing dsDNA size in a cross-linked gel, no similar distribution was found with the same dsDNA molecules in a linear polyacrylamide solution (6%). Simulations of DNA distribution in gels suggest that DNA distribution non-uniformities may be caused by biased electrophoretic migration resulting from motion in an inhomogeneous gel system.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/61440/1/4768_ftp.pd

Physicochemical Properties and Catalytic Behavior of the Molecular Sieve SSZ-70

SSZ-70 is synthesized using 1,3-bis(isobutyl)imidazolium, 1,3-bis(cyclohexyl)imidazolium, and 1,3-bis(cycloheptyl)imidazolium structure directing agents (SDAs), and the solids obtained are characterized by powder X-ray diffraction (XRD), ^(29)Si magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance (MAS NMR), electron microscopy, nitrogen and hydrocarbon adsorption, and thermogravimetric analyses. The physicochemical properties of SSZ-70 show that it is a new molecular sieve that has similarities to MWW-type materials. The catalytic behavior of SSZ-70 is evaluated through the use of the constraint index (CI) test. Distinct differences in the reactivity between Al-SSZ-70 and SSZ-25 (MWW) are observed and are the consequences of the structural differences between these two molecular sieves

Military Medicine Interest Groups in U.S. Medical Schools

Medical student interest groups are organizations that help expose students to different medical specialties and fields of medicine while in medical school. Military medicine interest groups (MMIGs) are a particular type of interest group that spreads information about military medicine, fosters mentorship, and camaraderie between students and military faculty, and increases the opportunities for leadership while in medical school. Surveys were sent to all U.S. medical schools to determine how many schools had an MMIG. If a medical school had a group, a second survey was sent to the student leader to determine more information about how their group operated (such as type of participants, funding sources, activities, faculty involvement, military health care provider involvement, etc.). Fifty-six percent of U.S. medical schools who responded were found to have an MMIG and most participants were students in the Health Professions Scholarship Program. Information about military medicine was found to be the biggest impact of having a group at a medical school and student leaders expressed they wished to have more military health care provider involvement. The results of this study could help start MMIGs at other medical schools, as well as give ideas to current MMIGs on how other groups operate

Military Medicine Interest Groups in U.S. Medical Schools

Medical student interest groups are organizations that help expose students to different medical specialties and fields of medicine while in medical school. Military medicine interest groups (MMIGs) are a particular type of interest group that spreads information about military medicine, fosters mentorship, and camaraderie between students and military faculty, and increases the opportunities for leadership while in medical school. Surveys were sent to all U.S. medical schools to determine how many schools had an MMIG. If a medical school had a group, a second survey was sent to the student leader to determine more information about how their group operated (such as type of participants, funding sources, activities, faculty involvement, military health care provider involvement, etc.). Fifty-six percent of U.S. medical schools who responded were found to have an MMIG and most participants were students in the Health Professions Scholarship Program. Information about military medicine was found to be the biggest impact of having a group at a medical school and student leaders expressed they wished to have more military health care provider involvement. The results of this study could help start MMIGs at other medical schools, as well as give ideas to current MMIGs on how other groups operate

Continuous macroscopic limit of a discrete stochastic model for interaction of living cells

In the development of multiscale biological models it is crucial to establish a connection between discrete microscopic or mesoscopic stochastic models and macroscopic continuous descriptions based on cellular density. In this paper a continuous limit of a two-dimensional Cellular Potts Model (CPM) with excluded volume is derived, describing cells moving in a medium and reacting to each other through both direct contact and long range chemotaxis. The continuous macroscopic model is obtained as a Fokker-Planck equation describing evolution of the cell probability density function. All coefficients of the general macroscopic model are derived from parameters of the CPM and a very good agreement is demonstrated between CPM Monte Carlo simulations and numerical solution of the macroscopic model. It is also shown that in the absence of contact cell-cell interactions, the obtained model reduces to the classical macroscopic Keller-Segel model. General multiscale approach is demonstrated by simulating spongy bone formation from loosely packed mesenchyme via the intramembranous route suggesting that self-organizing physical mechanisms can account for this developmental process.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Distinguishing two-qubit states using local measurements and restricted classical communication

The problem of unambiguous state discrimination consists of determining which of a set of known quantum states a particular system is in. One is allowed to fail, but not to make a mistake. The optimal procedure is the one with the lowest failure probability. This procedure has been extended to bipartite states where the two parties, Alice and Bob, are allowed to manipulate their particles locally and communicate classically in order to determine which of two possible two-particle states they have been given. The failure probability of this local procedure has been shown to be the same as if the particles were together in the same location. Here we examine the effect of restricting the classical communication between the parties, either allowing none or eliminating the possibility that one party's measurement depends on the result of the other party's. These issues are studied for two-qubit states, and optimal procedures are found. In some cases the restrictions cause increases in the failure probability, but in other cases they do not. Applications of these procedures, in particular to secret sharing, are discussed.Comment: 18 pages, two figure

Leucine Zipper-Bearing Kinase Is a Critical Regulator of Astrocyte Reactivity in the Adult Mammalian CNS.

Reactive astrocytes influence post-injury recovery, repair, and pathogenesis of the mammalian CNS. Much of the regulation of astrocyte reactivity, however, remains to be understood. Using genetic loss and gain-of-function analyses in vivo, we show that the conserved MAP3K13 (also known as leucine zipper-bearing kinase [LZK]) promotes astrocyte reactivity and glial scar formation after CNS injury. Inducible LZK gene deletion in astrocytes of adult mice reduced astrogliosis and impaired glial scar formation, resulting in increased lesion size after spinal cord injury. Conversely, LZK overexpression in astrocytes enhanced astrogliosis and reduced lesion size. Remarkably, in the absence of injury, LZK overexpression alone induced widespread astrogliosis in the CNS and upregulated astrogliosis activators pSTAT3 and SOX9. The identification of LZK as a critical cell-intrinsic regulator of astrocyte reactivity expands our understanding of the multicellular response to CNS injury and disease, with broad translational implications for neural repair