A complement to Le Cam's theorem

This paper examines asymptotic equivalence in the sense of Le Cam between density estimation experiments and the accompanying Poisson experiments. The significance of asymptotic equivalence is that all asymptotically optimal statistical procedures can be carried over from one experiment to the other. The equivalence given here is established under a weak assumption on the parameter space $\mathcal{F}$. In particular, a sharp Besov smoothness condition is given on $\mathcal{F}$ which is sufficient for Poissonization, namely, if $\mathcal{F}$ is in a Besov ball $B_{p,q}^{\alpha}(M)$ with $\alpha p>1/2$. Examples show Poissonization is not possible whenever $\alpha p<1/2$. In addition, asymptotic equivalence of the density estimation model and the accompanying Poisson experiment is established for all compact subsets of $C([0,1]^m)$, a condition which includes all H\"{o}lder balls with smoothness $\alpha>0$.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053607000000091 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The Allocation of Advertising and Research Dollars in the Florida Orange Juice Industry

This study considers the allocation of Florida citrus‐grower money between advertising and research programs to maximize grower revenue net of program costs. The allocation depends on the impact of advertising on demand and the impacts of research on the cost of production and supply. A number of studies have estimated the impact of advertising on OJ demand, but little is known about the impact of research. Research on citrus greening, a disease that has no known cure, is examined in the present study. There are no past studies to reliably gauge the impact of this research. The approach taken here is to ask if a given amount of research dollars is needed to reduce average production costs by certain amount, then what should be spent on advertising based on past estimates of the elasticity of demand with respect to advertising. The optimal ratio of advertising to research dollars increases with the advertising elasticity and declines with the amount of research money needed to reduce average costs. The results of this study provide a range for this ratio based on different advertising elasticities and amounts of research dollars needed to reduce production costs. The approach provides an indication of the importance of advertising given expectations on the research needed to successfully fight this diseaseorange juice, returns to research, advertising, Agribusiness, Food Security and Poverty,

THE IMPACT OF THE REDUCTION IN THE AUSTRALIAN ORANGE-JUICE TARIFF

After substantial reduction in the Australian orange juice tariff, citrus growers in that country shifted their efforts away from Valencia orange production towards Navel oranges intended for the fresh market. Australia has been successful in penetrating the world market for fresh oranges. Given the large size of the orange industry in Florida, however, it is unlikely that Florida growers could follow the same model if the U.S. orange juice were substantially reduced or eliminated.oranges, tariffs, Australia, International Relations/Trade,

The Rise in Disability Recipiency and the Decline in Unemployment

Between 1984 and 2000, the share of non-elderly adults receiving benefits from the Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) programs rose from 3.1 to 5.3 percent. We trace this growth to reduced screening stringency and, due to the interaction between growing wage inequality and a progressive benefits formula, a rising earnings replacement rate. We explore the implications of these changes for the level of labor force participation among the less skilled and their employment responses to adverse employment shocks. Following program liberalization in 1984, DI application and recipiency rates became two to three times as responsive to plausibly exogenous labor demand shocks. Contemporaneously, male and female high school dropouts became increasingly likely to exit the labor force rather than enter unemployment in the event of an adverse shock. The liberalization of the disability program appears to explain both facts. Accounting for the role of disability in inducing labor force exit among the low-skilled unemployed, we calculate that the U.S. unemployment rate would be two-thirds of a percentage point higher at present were it not for the liberalized disability system.

Method and apparatus for producing microshells

A method is described for forming hollow particles, or shells, of extremely small size. The shell material is heated to a molten temperature in the presence of a gas that is at least moderately soluble in the shell material, to form a solution of the molten shell material and the soluble gas. The solution is atomized to form a multiplicity of separate droplets that are cooled while in free fall. Cooling of a droplet from the outside traps the desolved gas and forces it to form a gas bubble at the center of the droplet which now forms a gas filled shell. The shell is reheated and then cooled in free fall, in an environment having a lower pressure than the gas pressure in the shell. This causes expansion of the shell and the formation of a shell having a small wall thickness compared to its diameter

IMPACTS ON U.S. PRICES OF REDUCING ORANGE JUICE TARIFFS IN MAJOR WORLD MARKETS

A demand model is developed to examine the impacts on orange juice prices resulting from elimination or reduction of the tariffs on orange juice imposed by the United States, European Union, and Japan. An empirical analysis suggests that elimination of the U.S. tariff by itself would decrease the U.S. orange juice price by about $0.22 per gallon, while simultaneous elimination of the U.S., European, and Japanese tariffs would decrease the U.S. price by about$0.13 per gallon. Alternatively, reducing these tariffs according to the Swiss 25 formula would decrease the U.S. price by an estimated $0.09 per gallon. The U.S. produces about 1.4 billion gallons of orange juice annually and each penny reduction in the price impact increases U.S. orange juice FOB revenue by$14 million.Demand and Price Analysis,

Coyote crossings: the role of smugglers in illegal immigration and border enforcement

Illegal immigration and border enforcement in the United States have increased concomitantly for over thirty years. One interpretation is that U.S. border policies have been ineffective. We offer an alternative view, extending the current immigration-enforcement literature by incorporating both the practice of people smuggling and a role for non-wage income into a two-country, dynamic general equilibrium model. We state conditions under which two steady state equilibria exist: one with a low level of capital, but relatively little migration. We then analyze two shocks: a positive technology shock to smuggling services and an increase in border enforcement. In the low-capital steady state, the capital-labor ratio declines with technological progress in smuggling, while illegal immigration increases. In the high-capital steady state, a technology shock causes the capital-labor ratio to rise while the effect on migration is indeterminate. We show that an increase in border enforcement is qualitatively equivalent to a negative technology shock to smuggling. Finally, we show that a developed country would never choose small levels of border enforcement over an open border. Moreover, a high level of border enforcement is optimal only if it significantly decreases capital accumulation. In addition, we provide conditions under which an increase in smuggler technology will lead to a decline in the optimal level of enforcement.Emigration and immigration ; Mexico

Production and Price Effects of New Diseases and Other Challenges Confronting the Processed Orange Industry

Sao Paulo and Florida are the primary producers of orange juice. Both regions face production challenges. In this paper, a model of the world orange juice market is used to analyze the effect of citrus greening and high sugarcane prices on the production and price of orange juice.Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Production Economics,

Demand for Nutrients: The Household Production Approach

This study uses the household production theory to study the demand for nutrients, i.e., households purchase a combination of food items from the market and produce the needed nutrients from these food items. By following the traditional household production approach, shadow prices for nutrients in food consumption are calculated. The cost function that generates the shadow prices appears plausible in terms of its elasticities of substitution and factor demand. After obtaining the calculated shadow prices of nutrients, the nutrient demand functions are estimated. Results show that the own-price elasticity of demand for nutrient is inelastic, whereas the expenditure elasticities indicate that nutrients are normal goods. Crossprice elasticities show that there appears to be complementarity in the demand for nutrients. This seems a logical result.nutrient, household production theory, demand, Demand and Price Analysis,

Canadian import demand for fresh fruits: a differential demand system approach

import demand, Canada, fresh fruit, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,