Improved dynamic geomagnetic rigidity cutoff modeling: testing predictive accuracy

. In the polar atmosphere, significant chemical and ionization changes occur during solar proton events (SPE). The access of solar protons to this region is limited by the dynamically changing geomagnetic field. In this study we have used riometer absorption observations to investigate the accuracy of a model to predict Kp-dependent geomagnetic rigidity cutoffs, and hence the changing proton fluxes. The imaging riometer at Halley, Antarctica is ideally situated for such a study, as the rigidity cutoff sweeps back and forth across the instrument's field of view, providing a severe test of the rigidity cutoff model. Using observations from this riometer during five solar proton events, we have confirmed the basic accuracy of this rigidity model. However, we find that the model can be improved by setting a lower Kp limit (i.e., Kp=5 instead of 6) at which the rigidity modeling saturates. We also find that for L>4.5 the apparent L-shell of the beam moves equatorwards. In addition, the Sodankyla Ion and Neutral Chemistry model is used to determine an empirical relationship between integral proton precipitation fluxes and nighttime ionosphere riometer absorption, in order to allow consideration of winter time SPEs. We find that during the nighttime the proton flux energy threshold is lowered to include protons with energies of >5 MeV in comparison with >10 MeV for the daytime empirical relationships. In addition, we provide an indication of the southern and northern geographic regions inside which SPEs play a role in modifying the neutral chemistry of the stratosphere and mesosphere

Response: Commentary: Energetic particle forcing of the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere: comparison to solar irradiance forcing

Variation in solar irradiance is considered an important factor in natural climate forcing. Variations in the solar UV in particular are now regarded as a major source of decadal variability in the stratosphere, influencing surface climate through stratosphere-troposphere coupling.However, by analyzing meteorological re-analysis data we find that the magnitude of the solar controlled energetic particle forcing signal in stratospheric zonal mean zonal winds and polar temperatures is equivalent to those arising from solar irradiance variations during the Northern hemisphere polar winter months.We find that energetic particle forcing drives warmer polar upper stratospheric temperatures from early winter leading to an anomalously strong polar night jet via modulation of the vertical temperature gradient. By midwinter the stratosphere-troposphere coupling pathway becomes analogous to the solar UV impact at high latitudes. This not only highlights the importance of the energetic particle forcing contribution to stratospheric circulation, but enables us to understand the pathways responsible for the previously reported energetic particle forcing impacts on the troposphere in terms of the coupling of solar UV forcing to dynamics in the latter part of the winter.<br/

Relativistic microburst storm characteristics: Combined satellite and ground-based observations

We report a comparison of Solar Anomalous Magnetospheric Particle Explorer detected relativistic electron microbursts and short-lived subionospheric VLF perturbations termed FAST events, observed at Sodankyl Geophysical Observatory, Finland, during 2005. We show that only strong geomagnetic disturbances can produce FAST events, which is consistent with the strong link between storms and relativistic microbursts. Further, the observed FAST event perturbation decay times were consistent with ionospheric recovery from bursts of relativistic electron precipitation. However, the one-to-one correlation in time between microbursts and FAST events was found to be very low (similar to 1%). We interpret this as confirmation that microbursts have small ionospheric footprints and estimate the individual precipitation events to be <4 km radius. In contrast, our study strongly suggests that the region over which microbursts occur during storm event periods can be at least similar to 90 degrees in longitude (similar to 6 h in magnetic local time). This confirms earlier estimates of microburst storm size, suggesting that microbursts could be a significant loss mechanism for radiation belt relativistic electrons during geomagnetic storms. Although microbursts are observed at a much higher rate than FAST events, the ground-based FAST event data can provide additional insight into the conditions required for microburst generation and the time variation of relativistic precipitation

POES satellite observations of EMIC-wave driven relativistic electron precipitation during 1998-2010

[1] Using six Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES) satellites that have carried the Space Environment Module-2 instrument package, a total of 436,422 individual half-orbits between 1998 and 2010 were inspected by an automatic detection algorithm searching for electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) driven relativistic electron precipitation (REP). The algorithm searched for one of the key characteristics of EMIC-driven REP, identified as the simultaneity between spikes in the P1 (52 keV differential proton flux channel) and P6 (>800 keV electron channel). In all, 2331 proton precipitation associated REP (PPAREP) events were identified. The majority of events were observed at L-values within the outer radiation belt (3 < L < 7) and were more common in the dusk and night sectors as determined by magnetic local time. The majority of events occurred outside the plasmasphere, at L-values ~1 Re greater than the plasmapause location determined from two different statistical models. The events make up a subset of EMIC-driven proton spikes investigated by Sandanger et al. (2009), and potentially reflect different overall characteristics compared with proton spikes, particularly when comparing their location to that of the plasmapause, i.e., EMIC-driven proton precipitation inside the plasmapause, and potentially EMIC-driven REP outside the plasmapause. There was no clear relationship between the location of plasmaspheric plumes and the locations of the PPAREP events detected. Analysis of the PPAREP event occurrence indicates that high solar wind speed and high geomagnetic activity levels increase the likelihood of an event being detected. The peak PPAREP event occurrence was during the declining phase of solar cycle 23, consistent with the 2003 maximum in the geomagnetic activity index, Ap

Trend and abrupt changes in long-term geomagnetic indices

Advanced statistical methods are employed to analyze three long-term time series of geomagnetic activity indices (aa, IHV, and IDV) together with sunspot number (Rz) to examine whether or not the aa index can realistically represent long-term variations of geomagnetic activity. We make use of a decomposition method called STL, which is a time domain filtering procedure that decomposes a time series into trend, cyclic, and residual components using nonparametric regression. A Bayesian change point analysis is also applied to the geomagnetic indices, as well as to sunspot number, to detect abrupt changes that may be caused by either instrumental changes, calibration errors, or sudden changes in solar activity. Our analysis shows that all three long-term geomagnetic indices share a similar centennial-scale variation that resembles the long-term trend of sunspot number Rz. The amplitude ratio between the centennial-scale variation and 11-year cycle of aa and IHV are closely comparable. Overall, our analysis suggests that the majority of the changes in the aa index are controlled by solar activity. Instrumental change or site relocation has only a limited effect on the long-term trend of aa. This is in good agreement with those previous studies which have shown aa to be a reliable long-term index

Nature's Grand Experiment: Linkage between magnetospheric convection and the radiation belts

The solar minimum of 2007–2010 was unusually deep and long lived. In the later stages of this period the electron fluxes in the radiation belts dropped to extremely low levels. The flux of relativistic electrons (>1 MeV) was significantly diminished and at times was below instrument thresholds both for spacecraft located in geostationary orbits and also those in low-Earth orbit. This period has been described as a natural “Grand Experiment” allowing us to test our understanding of basic radiation belt physics and in particular the acceleration mechanisms which lead to enhancements in outer belt relativistic electron fluxes. Here we test the hypothesis that processes which initiate repetitive substorm onsets drive magnetospheric convection, which in turn triggers enhancement in whistler mode chorus that accelerates radiation belt electrons to relativistic energies. Conversely, individual substorms would not be associated with radiation belt acceleration. Contrasting observations from multiple satellites of energetic and relativistic electrons with substorm event lists, as well as chorus measurements, show that the data are consistent with the hypothesis. We show that repetitive substorms are associated with enhancements in the flux of energetic and relativistic electrons and enhanced whistler mode wave intensities. The enhancement in chorus wave power starts slightly before the repetitive substorm epoch onset. During the 2009/2010 period the only relativistic electron flux enhancements that occurred were preceded by repeated substorm onsets, consistent with enhanced magnetospheric convection as a trigger

Demonstrating the use of a class of min-max smoothers for D-region event detection in narrowband VLF phase

This paper describes the use of a class of non‐linear smoothers for the identification of interesting phenomena in narrowband very low frequency (VLF) transmission phase caused by perturbation events in the D‐region of the ionosphere. The LULU smoothers, named for their smoothing of upward (L) and downward (U) peaks in a signal, usually used for image processing tasks, are described and examples are shown where these operators are used to automatically isolate and identify features in the phase of narrow band transmissions received at high and high‐middle latitudes (Antarctica and Marion Island, respectively). Identification of solar flare events, electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave precipitation and substorm injection events are demonstrated, showing the potential for this technique to be used for space weather monitoring

Very low latitude whistler‐mode signals: Observations at three widely spaced latitudes

VLF radio signals with travel times ~100 ms were observed continuously for up to ~11 hours at night on Rarotonga (Cook Islands, ~21°S) at 21.4 kHz from US Navy transmitter NPM, Hawaii (~21°N). These signals travelled in the whistler‐mode on well‐defined paths, though not field‐aligned ducts, through the ionospheric F region, and across the equator reaching altitudes ~700‐1400 km depending on time of night. These same signals were also observed simultaneously in Dunedin (46°S), New Zealand, with very nearly the same travel times but with somewhat lower amplitudes and occurrence rates, consistent with the whistler‐mode part of the propagation being at very low latitudes. Both sets of signals had similar Doppler shifts, typically tens of mHz, but sometimes up to a few hundred mHz, being positive during most of the night, while the whistler‐mode group delays decreased due to both the shortening of the path and the decay of the near equatorial ionosphere, but negative near dawn when the Sun's rays start ionizing the F region. The signals are not observable during the day, fading out during dawn, due to increasing attenuation from the increasing electron density, and hence increasing collisions, in both the D and F regions. Similar weaker NPM signals were also seen at Rothera (68°S). In addition, similar 24.8 kHz signals were seen from the more distant NLK (Seattle, ~48°N) at Rarotonga, though clearly weaker than from NPM, but not at Dunedin

Substorm induced energetic electron precipitation:morphology and prediction

The injection, and subsequent precipitation, of 20 to 300 keV electrons during substorms is modeled using parameters of a typical substorm found in the literature. When combined with onset timing from, for example, the SuperMAG substorm database, or the Minimal Substorm Model, it may be used to calculate substorm contributions to energetic electron precipitation in atmospheric chemistry and climate models. Here the results are compared to ground-based data from the Imaging Riometer for Ionospheric Studies riometer in Kilpisjärvi, Finland, and the narrowband subionospheric VLF receiver at Sodankylä, Finland. Qualitatively, the model reproduces the observations well when only onset timing from the SuperMAG network of magnetometers is used as an input and is capable of reproducing all four categories of substorm associated riometer spike events. The results suggest that the different types of spike event are the same phenomena observed at different locations, with each type emerging from the model results at a different local time, relative to the center of the injection region. The model's ability to reproduce the morphology of spike events more accurately than previous models is attributed to the injection of energetic electrons being concentrated specifically in the regions undergoing dipolarization, instead of uniformly across a single-injection region

Empirical predictive models of daily relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit: Multiple regression analysis

The daily maximum relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit can be predicted well with a set of daily averaged predictor variables including previous day's flux, seed electron flux, solar wind velocity and number density, AE index, IMF Bz, Dst, and ULF and VLF wave power. As predictor variables are intercorrelated, we used multiple regression analyses to determine which are the most predictive of flux when other variables are controlled. Empirical models produced from regressions of flux on measured predictors from 1 day previous were reasonably effective at predicting novel observations. Adding previous flux to the parameter set improves the prediction of the peak of the increases but delays its anticipation of an event. Previous day's solar wind number density and velocity, AE index, and ULF wave activity are the most significant explanatory variables; however, the AE index, measuring substorm processes, shows a negative correlation with flux when other parameters are controlled. This may be due to the triggering of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves by substorms that cause electron precipitation. VLF waves show lower, but significant, influence. The combined effect of ULF and VLF waves shows a synergistic interaction, where each increases the influence of the other on flux enhancement. Correlations between observations and predictions for this 1 day lag model ranged from 0.71 to 0.89 (average: 0.78). A path analysis of correlations between predictors suggests that solar wind and IMF parameters affect flux through intermediate processes such as ring current (Dst), AE, and wave activity