Call Thee Ishmael

“Moby-Dick is a strangely compelling book.”[1] Scholarship and commentary help the reader understand why Ishmael’s tale is so compelling, but not always why it is strangely so. The perennial search for a master key to unlock the strangeness of Moby-Dick beneath its infinite layers has added more mesmerizing layers, but if many of the proposed keys fit into the lock of Moby-Dick, why is there yet a sense that none have completely opened “the great flood-gates?” (Moby-Dick 22, hereafter “MD”). Is it because none of them are right, or that they are only partly right, or that Melville himself was confused

The Arctic as a Test Case for an Assessment of Climate Impacts on National Security

Sandia staff members have collaborative ties to researchers from NOAA, the Naval Postgraduate School, NCAR, and other federally-sponsored organizations with active research interests and capabilities in Arctic regions.The Arctic region is rapidly changing in a way that will affect the rest of the world. Parts of Alaska, western Canada, and Siberia are currently warming at twice the global rate. This warming trend is accelerating permafrost deterioration, coastal erosion, snow and ice loss, and other changes that are a direct consequence of climate change. Climatologists have long understood that changes in the Arctic would be faster and more intense than elsewhere on the planet, but the degree and speed of the changes were underestimated compared to recent observations. Policy makers have not yet had time to examine the latest evidence or appreciate the nature of the consequences. Thus, the abruptness and severity of an unfolding Arctic climate crisis has not been incorporated into long- range planning. The purpose of this report is to briefly review the physical basis for global climate change and Arctic amplification, summarize the ongoing observations, discuss the potential consequences, explain the need for an objective risk assessment, develop scenarios for future change, review existing modeling capabilities and the need for better regional models, and finally to make recommendations for Sandia’s future role in preparing our leaders to deal with impacts of Arctic climate change on national security. Accurate and credible regional-scale climate models are still several years in the future, and those models are essential for estimating climate impacts around the globe. This study demonstrates how a scenario-based method may be used to give insights into climate impacts on a regional scale and possible mitigation. Because of our experience in the Arctic and widespread recognition of the Arctic’s importance in the Earth climate system we chose the Arctic as a test case for an assessment of climate impacts on national security. Sandia can make a swift and significant contribution by applying modeling and simulation tools with internal collaborations as well as with outside organizations. Because changes in the Arctic environment are happening so rapidly, a successful program will be one that can adapt very quickly to new information as it becomes available, and can provide decision makers with projections on the 1-5 year time scale over which the most disruptive, high-consequence changes are likely to occur. The greatest short-term impact would be to initiate exploratory simulations to discover new emergent and robust phenomena associated with one or more of the following changing systems: Arctic hydrological cycle, sea ice extent, ocean and atmospheric circulation, permafrost deterioration, carbon mobilization, Greenland ice sheet stability, and coastal erosion. Sandia can also contribute to new technology solutions for improved observations in the Arctic, which is currently a data-sparse region. Sensitivity analyses have the potential to identify thresholds which would enable the collaborative development of “early warning” sensor systems to seek predicted phenomena that might be precursory to major, high-consequence changes. Much of this work will require improved regional climate models and advanced computing capabilities. Socio-economic modeling tools can help define human and national security consequences. Formal uncertainty quantification must be an integral part of any results that emerge from this work.Sandia staff members have collaborative ties to researchers from NOAA, the Naval Postgraduate School, NCAR, and other federally-sponsored organizations with active research interests and capabilities in Arctic regions

The Arctic as a test case for an assessment of climate impacts on national security.

The Arctic region is rapidly changing in a way that will affect the rest of the world. Parts of Alaska, western Canada, and Siberia are currently warming at twice the global rate. This warming trend is accelerating permafrost deterioration, coastal erosion, snow and ice loss, and other changes that are a direct consequence of climate change. Climatologists have long understood that changes in the Arctic would be faster and more intense than elsewhere on the planet, but the degree and speed of the changes were underestimated compared to recent observations. Policy makers have not yet had time to examine the latest evidence or appreciate the nature of the consequences. Thus, the abruptness and severity of an unfolding Arctic climate crisis has not been incorporated into long-range planning. The purpose of this report is to briefly review the physical basis for global climate change and Arctic amplification, summarize the ongoing observations, discuss the potential consequences, explain the need for an objective risk assessment, develop scenarios for future change, review existing modeling capabilities and the need for better regional models, and finally to make recommendations for Sandia's future role in preparing our leaders to deal with impacts of Arctic climate change on national security. Accurate and credible regional-scale climate models are still several years in the future, and those models are essential for estimating climate impacts around the globe. This study demonstrates how a scenario-based method may be used to give insights into climate impacts on a regional scale and possible mitigation. Because of our experience in the Arctic and widespread recognition of the Arctic's importance in the Earth climate system we chose the Arctic as a test case for an assessment of climate impacts on national security. Sandia can make a swift and significant contribution by applying modeling and simulation tools with internal collaborations as well as with outside organizations. Because changes in the Arctic environment are happening so rapidly, a successful program will be one that can adapt very quickly to new information as it becomes available, and can provide decision makers with projections on the 1-5 year time scale over which the most disruptive, high-consequence changes are likely to occur. The greatest short-term impact would be to initiate exploratory simulations to discover new emergent and robust phenomena associated with one or more of the following changing systems: Arctic hydrological cycle, sea ice extent, ocean and atmospheric circulation, permafrost deterioration, carbon mobilization, Greenland ice sheet stability, and coastal erosion. Sandia can also contribute to new technology solutions for improved observations in the Arctic, which is currently a data-sparse region. Sensitivity analyses have the potential to identify thresholds which would enable the collaborative development of 'early warning' sensor systems to seek predicted phenomena that might be precursory to major, high-consequence changes. Much of this work will require improved regional climate models and advanced computing capabilities. Socio-economic modeling tools can help define human and national security consequences. Formal uncertainty quantification must be an integral part of any results that emerge from this work

The effect of foot type of normal subjects on foot contact dynamics

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Probability Density of the Multipole Vectors for a Gaussian Cosmic Microwave Background

We review Maxwell's multipole vectors, and elucidate some of their mathematical properties, with emphasis on the application of this tool to the cosmic microwave background (CMB). In particular, for a completely random function on the sphere (corresponding to the statistically isotropic Gaussian model of the CMB), we derive the full probability density function of the multipole vectors. This function is used to analyze the internal configurations of the third-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe quadrupole and octopole, and we show the observations are consistent with the Gaussian prediction. A particular aspect is the planarity of the octopole, which we find not to be anomalous.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, MNRAS styl

Impact of Massage Therapy on Fatigue, Pain, and Spasticity in People with Multiple Sclerosis: a Pilot Study

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic, immune-mediated, inflammatory disease that leads to fatigue, pain, and spasticity, as well as other sensorimotor and cognitive changes. Often traditional medical approaches are ineffective in alleviating these disruptive symptoms. Although about one-third of surveyed individuals report they use massage therapy (MT) as an adjunct to medical treatment, there is little empirical evidence that MT is effective for symptom management in people with MS.Purpose: To measure the effects of MT on fatigue, pain, spasticity, perception of health, and quality of life in people with MS.Setting: Not-for-profit long-term care facility.Participants: Twenty-four of 28 enrolled individuals with MS (average age = 47.38, SD = 13.05; 22 female) completed all MT sessions and outcome assessments.Research Design: Nonrandomized, pre–post pilot study.Intervention: Standardized MT routine one time a week for six weeks.Main Outcome Measure(s): Modified Fatigue Index Scale (MFIS), MOS Pain Effects Scale (MOS Pain), and Modified Ashworth Scale (MAS). Secondary outcome measures: Mental Health Inventory (MHI) and Health Status Questionnaire (HSQ).Results: There was a significant improvement in MFIS (p < .01), MOS Pain (p < .01), MHI (p < .01), and HSQ (p < .01), all with a large effect size (ES) (Cohen’s d = -0.76, 1.25, 0.93, -1.01, respectively). There was a significant correlation betweenchange scores on the MFIS and the MOS Pain (r = 0.532, p < .01), MHI (r = -0.647, p < .01), and subscales of the HSQ (ranging from r = -0.519, to -0.619, p < .01).Conclusions: MT as delivered in this study is a safe and beneficial intervention for management of fatigue and pain in people with MS. Decreasing fatigue and pain appears to correlate with improvement in quality of life, which is meaningfulfor people with MS who have a chronic disease resulting in long-term health care needs

Off-axis effects on the multipulse structure of sperm whale usual clicks with implications for sound production

Author Posting. © Acoustical Society of America, 2005. This article is posted here by permission of Acoustical Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 118 (2005): 3337-3345, doi:10.1121/1.2082707.Sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) produce multipulsed clicks with their hypertrophied nasal complex. The currently accepted view of the sound generation process is based on the click structure measured directly in front of, or behind, the whale where regular interpulse intervals (IPIs) are found between successive pulses in the click. Most sperm whales, however, are recorded with the whale in an unknown orientation with respect to the hydrophone where the multipulse structure and the IPI do not conform to a regular pulse pattern. By combining far-field recordings of usual clicks with acoustic and orientation information measured by a tag on the clicking whale, we analyzed clicks from known aspects to the whale. We show that a geometric model based on the bent horn theory for sound production can explain the varying off-axis multipulse structure. Some of the sound energy that is reflected off the frontal sac radiates directly into the water creating an intermediate pulse p1/2 seen in off-axis recordings. The powerful p1 sonar pulse exits the front of the junk as predicted by the bent-horn model, showing that the junk of the sperm whale nasal complex is both anatomically and functionally homologous to the melon of smaller toothed whales.This work was funded by grants to from the Office of Naval Research Grant Nos. N00014-99-1-0819 and No. N00014-01-1-0705, and the Packard Foundation

Climate change effects on international stability : a white paper.

This white paper represents a summary of work intended to lay the foundation for development of a climatological/agent model of climate-induced conflict. The paper combines several loosely-coupled efforts and is the final report for a four-month late-start Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project funded by the Advanced Concepts Group (ACG). The project involved contributions by many participants having diverse areas of expertise, with the common goal of learning how to tie together the physical and human causes and consequences of climate change. We performed a review of relevant literature on conflict arising from environmental scarcity. Rather than simply reviewing the previous work, we actively collected data from the referenced sources, reproduced some of the work, and explored alternative models. We used the unfolding crisis in Darfur (western Sudan) as a case study of conflict related to or triggered by climate change, and as an exercise for developing a preliminary concept map. We also outlined a plan for implementing agents in a climate model and defined a logical progression toward the ultimate goal of running both types of models simultaneously in a two-way feedback mode, where the behavior of agents influences the climate and climate change affects the agents. Finally, we offer some ''lessons learned'' in attempting to keep a diverse and geographically dispersed group working together by using Web-based collaborative tools

The ISB Cancer Genomics Cloud: A Flexible Cloud-Based Platform for Cancer Genomics Research.

The ISB Cancer Genomics Cloud (ISB-CGC) is one of three pilot projects funded by the National Cancer Institute to explore new approaches to computing on large cancer datasets in a cloud environment. With a focus on Data as a Service, the ISB-CGC offers multiple avenues for accessing and analyzing The Cancer Genome Atlas, TARGET, and other important references such as GENCODE and COSMIC using the Google Cloud Platform. The open approach allows researchers to choose approaches best suited to the task at hand: from analyzing terabytes of data using complex workflows to developing new analysis methods in common languages such as Python, R, and SQL; to using an interactive web application to create synthetic patient cohorts and to explore the wealth of available genomic data. Links to resources and documentation can be found at www.isb-cgc.or