Are infant mortality rate declines exponential? The general pattern of 20th century infant mortality rate decline

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Time trends in infant mortality for the 20^thcentury show a curvilinear pattern that most demographers have assumed to be approximately exponential. Virtually all cross-country comparisons and time series analyses of infant mortality have studied the logarithm of infant mortality to account for the curvilinear time trend. However, there is no evidence that the log transform is the best fit for infant mortality time trends.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We use maximum likelihood methods to determine the best transformation to fit time trends in infant mortality reduction in the 20^thcentury and to assess the importance of the proper transformation in identifying the relationship between infant mortality and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We apply the Box Cox transform to infant mortality rate (IMR) time series from 18 countries to identify the best fitting value of lambda for each country and for the pooled sample. For each country, we test the value of <it>λ </it>against the null that <it>λ </it>= 0 (logarithmic model) and against the null that <it>λ </it>= 1 (linear model). We then demonstrate the importance of selecting the proper transformation by comparing regressions of ln(IMR) on same year GDP per capita against Box Cox transformed models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Based on chi-squared test statistics, infant mortality decline is best described as an exponential decline only for the United States. For the remaining 17 countries we study, IMR decline is neither best modelled as logarithmic nor as a linear process. Imposing a logarithmic transform on IMR can lead to bias in fitting the relationship between IMR and GDP per capita.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The assumption that IMR declines are exponential is enshrined in the Preston curve and in nearly all cross-country as well as time series analyses of IMR data since Preston's 1975 paper, but this assumption is seldom correct. Statistical analyses of IMR trends should assess the robustness of findings to transformations other than the log transform.</p

Resource requirements to fight HIV/AIDS in Latin America and the Caribbean.

OBJECTIVES: Economists and epidemiologists from 10 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) reviewed the methods used to develop estimates for resource requirements to address HIV/AIDS prevention and care in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: They applied their country-specific knowledge to re-estimate the costs, coverage, and capacity of their health and education systems to expand HIV/AIDS interventions by 2005. A discrepancy of 173 million US dollars exists between the model estimates and those of country specialists. RESULTS: The most important difference between the model estimates and those of country specialists was in the estimated future price of highly active antiretroviral therapy. To a large extent, the estimates of the model reflect the efficiency gains that could result from purchasing arrangements that lead LAC countries to lower prices for antiretroviral drugs. CONCLUSION: This preliminary exercise with 10 LAC countries confirmed the validity of the use of these estimates as tools at the international level, given current data limitations, both to guide the allocation of resources across diseases and countries, and for advocacy and resource mobilization. In addition, with the country revisions, these estimates have also been shown to be key tools for country-level strategic planning

Costs and resource needs for primary health care in Ethiopia: evidence to inform planning and budgeting for universal health coverage

IntroductionThe Government of Ethiopia (GoE) has made significant progress in expanding access to primary health care (PHC) over the past 15 years. However, achieving national PHC targets for universal health coverage will require a significant increase in PHC financing. The purpose of this study was to generate cost evidence and provide recommendations to improve PHC efficiency.MethodsWe used the open access Primary Health Care Costing, Analysis, and Planning (PHC-CAP) Tool to estimate actual and normative recurrent PHC costs in nine Ethiopian regions. The findings on actual costs were based on primary data collected in 2018/19 from a sample of 20 health posts, 25 health centers, and eight primary hospitals. Three different extrapolation methods were used to estimate actual costs in the nine sampled regions. Normative costs were calculated based on standard treatment protocols (STPs), the population in need of the PHC services included in the Essential Health Services Package (EHSP) as per the targets outlined in the Health Sector Transformation Plan II (HSTP II), and the associated costs. PHC resource gaps were estimated by comparing actual cost estimates to normative costs.ResultsOn average, the total cost of PHC in the sampled facilities was US$11,532 (range: US$ 934–40,746) in health posts, US$254,340 (range: US$ 68,860–832,647) in health centers, and US$634,354 (range: US$ 505,208–970,720) in primary hospitals. The average actual PHC cost per capita in the nine sampled regions was US$4.7, US$ 15.0, or US$20.2 depending on the estimation method used. When compared to the normative cost of US$ 38.5 per capita, all these estimates of actual PHC expenditures were significantly lower, indicating a shortfall in the funding required to deliver an expanded package of high-quality services to a larger population in line with GoE targets.DiscussionThe study findings underscore the need for increased mobilization of PHC resources and identify opportunities to improve the efficiency of PHC services to meet the GoE’s PHC targets. The data from this study can be a critical input for ongoing PHC financing reforms undertaken by the GoE including transitioning woreda-level planning from input-based to program-based budgeting, revising community-based health insurance (CBHI) packages, reviewing exempted services, and implementing strategic purchasing approaches such as capitation and performance-based financing

An assessment of primary health care costs and resource requirements in Kaduna and Kano, Nigeria

IntroductionThe availability of quality primary health care (PHC) services in Nigeria is limited. The PHC system faces significant challenges and the improvement and expansion of PHC services is constrained by low government spending on health, especially on PHC. Out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures dominate health spending in Nigeria and the reliance on OOP payments leads to financial burdens on the poorest and most vulnerable populations. To address these challenges, the Nigerian government has implemented several legislative and policy reforms, including the National Health Insurance Authority (NHIA) Act enacted in 2022 to make health insurance mandatory for all Nigerian citizens and residents. Our study aimed to determine the costs of providing PHC services at public health facilities in Kaduna and Kano, Nigeria. We compared the actual PHC service delivery costs to the normative costs of delivering the Minimum Service Package (MSP) in the two states.MethodsWe collected primary data from 50 health facilities (25 per state), including PHC facilities—health posts, health clinics, health centers—and general hospitals. Data on facility-level recurrent costs were collected retrospectively for 2019 to estimate economic costs from the provider’s perspective. Statewide actual costs were estimated by extrapolating the PHC cost estimates at sampled health facilities, while normative costs were derived using standard treatment protocols (STPs) and the populations requiring PHC services in each state.ResultsWe found that average actual PHC costs per capita at PHC facilities—where most PHC services should be provided according to government guidelines—ranged from US$18.9 to US$ 28 in Kaduna and US$15.9 to US$ 20.4 in Kano, depending on the estimation methods used. When also considering the costs of PHC services provided at general hospitals—where approximately a third of PHC services are delivered in both states—the actual per capita costs of PHC services ranged from US$20 to US$ 30.6 in Kaduna and US$17.8 to US$ 22 in Kano. All estimates of actual PHC costs per capita were markedly lower than the normative per capita costs of delivering quality PHC services to all those who need them, projected at US$44.9 in Kaduna and US$ 49.5 in Kano.DiscussionBridging this resource gap would require significant increases in expenditures on PHC in both states. These results can provide useful information for ongoing discussions on the implementation of the NHIA Act including the refinement of provider payment strategies to ensure that PHC providers are remunerated fairly and that they are incentivized to provide quality PHC services

Management practices in facilities providing HIV services to key populations in Kenya and Malawi: A descriptive analysis of management in community-based organizations

HIV services for key populations (KP) at higher risk of HIV infection are often delivered by community-based organizations. To achieve HIV epidemic control, countries need to scale up HIV services for KP. Little is known about the management practices of community-based organizations delivering health services. We explored the management practices and facility characteristics of community-based health facilities providing HIV services to key populations as part of the LINKAGES program in Kenya and Malawi. We collected information on management practices from 45 facilities called drop-in centers (DICs) during US Government FY 2019, adapting the World Management Survey to the HIV community-based health service delivery context. We constructed management domain scores for each facility. We then analyzed the statistical correlations between management domains (performance monitoring, people management, financial management, and community engagement) and facility characteristics (e.g., number of staff, organization maturity, service scale) using ordinary least square models. The lowest mean management domain scores were found for people management in Kenya (38.3) and financial management in Malawi (25.7). The highest mean scores in both countries were for performance monitoring (80.9 in Kenya and 82.2 in Malawi). Within each management domain, there was significant variation across DICs, with the widest ranges in scores (0 to 100) observed for financial management and community involvement. The DIC characteristics we considered explained only a small proportion of the variation in management domain scores across DICs. Community-based health facilities providing HIV services to KP can achieve high levels of management in a context where they receive adequate levels of above-facility support and oversight—even if they deliver complex services, rely heavily on temporary workers and community volunteers, and face significant financial constraints. The variation in scores suggests that some facilities may require more above-facility support and oversight than others

The Cost of Providing Comprehensive HIV Services to Key Populations : An Analysis of the LINKAGES Program in Kenya and Malawi

Introduction: Timely data on HIV service costs are critical for estimating resource needs and allocating funding, but few data exist on the cost of HIV services for key populations (KPs) at higher risk of HIV infection in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to estimate the total and per contact annual cost of providing comprehensive HIV services to KPs to inform planning and budgeting decisions. Methods: We collected cost data from the Linkages across the Continuum of HIV Services for Key Populations Affected by HIV (LINKAGES) program in Kenya and Malawi serving female and male sex workers, men who have sex with men, and transgender women. Data were collected prospectively for fiscal year (FY) 2019 and retrospectively for start-up activities conducted in FY2015 and FY2016. Data to estimate economic costs from the provider’s perspective were collected from LINKAGES headquarters, country offices, implementing partners (IPs), and drop-in centers (DICs). We used top-down and bottom-up cost estimation approaches. Results: Total economic costs for FY2019 were US$6,175,960 in Kenya and US$4,261,207 in Malawi. The proportion of costs incurred in IPs and DICs was 66% in Kenya and 42% in Malawi. The costliest program areas were clinical services, management, peer outreach, and monitoring and data use. Mean cost per contact was US$127 in Kenya and US$279 in Malawi, with a mean cost per contact in DICs and IPs of US$63 in Kenya and US$104 in Malawi. Conclusion: Actions undertaken above the service level in headquarters and country offices along with those conducted below the service level in communities, comprised important proportions of KP HIV service costs. The costs of pre-service population mapping and size estimation activities were not negligible. Costing studies that focus on the service level alone are likely to underestimate the costs of delivering HIV services to KPs

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Modeling the Impact and Cost of Expanding Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in Eastern and Southern Africa

Emmanuel Njeuhmeli and colleagues estimate the impact and cost of scaling up adult medical male circumcision in 13 priority countries in eastern and southern Africa, finding that reaching 80% coverage and maintaining it until 2025 would avert 3.36 million new HIV infections

Does the measure of economic status matter?

PRIFPRI3; ISIPHN