Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly in the transition from work to retirement : an empirical analysis

On the basis of a longitudinal administrative dataset (1991-2002) merged with the Census of 2001 and the National Register, the majority of the poor elderly in Belgium appear to be persistently poor. The question arises why this might be so. To the extent that individual characteristics such as low abilities persist over time, they may also be the reason that individuals persist in poverty over time. In that case, one expects that once individual characteristics are controlled for, duration dependence in poverty becomes spurious. The alternative possibility is that poverty experience has a causal impact on future poverty. This may be because of a poverty trap : people may be given an incentive not to work while at the same time they slip into poverty. Or this may be due to depreciation of human capital or loss of motivation. The reasons for dependence would suggest to focus on stigma and adverse work incentives while spurious dependence would suggest to change individual’s characteristics. The simultaneous estimation of a multiple-spell discrete-time hazard model of transitions in and out of poverty, that allows for unobserved effects and a significant initial condition problem, lends strong empirical support for true duration dependence in poverty. This suggestion sounds reasonable since in Belgium elderly unemployed are exempted from the search for a job and thus easily exposed to depreciation of human capital and employers are reluctant to invest in the human capital of older workers. In addition in Belgium both employers and the government design retirement pathways that give elderly strong incentives to leave the labour market as soon as possible.poverty dynamics; poverty persistence; early retirement; work disincentives; multiple spell discrete-time hazard model

Does the dismantlement of early retirement schemes increase unemployment in Belgium ?

Early retirement is often explained as resulting from a voluntary labour supply choice of a utility maximizing individual. nonetheless, a lof of individuals perceive retirement as a forced instead as a voluntary decision. This paper tries to accomodate voluntary and unvoluntary labour supply decisions within one model. On the basis of a large administrative dataset merged with Census data, we estimate a discrete-time competing risk model of transitions from Belgian private-sector employees into unemployment, early and old-age retirement while accounting for forward-looking retirement incentives. The estimated coefficients are used to simulate a cut in early retirement benefits. Although this could enhance the financial sustainability of the social security system for elderly, one might expect that this may ofrce people to retire involuntarily through elderly unemployment where they end up with a lower living standard or even in poverty. Alternatively, it could stimulate employees to work longer until they qualify for old-age pension benefits. The model predicts a strong increase of the exit rates towards unemployment between age 52 and 57 while exit towards the old-age pension system marginally increases until age 63. In particular, blue-collars with physically demanding jobs in traditional industries have a higher risk to become unemployed while white-collar workers, members of voluntary saving plans or occupational pension schemes and highly educated workers are predicted to move in the old-age pension system.competing-risk model; early retirement; retirement pathways; involuntary retirement

Le bonus de pension : un cadeau empoisonné

Dans ce numéro de Regards Economiques, nous étudions les effets de trois réformes potentielles du système de pension légale en Belgique, incluant le «bonus de pension» introduit par le gouvernement en 2007 et visant à gratifier des années de travail au-delà d’un certain âge plutôt qu’à pénaliser la retraite anticipée. Nos variables d’intérêt sont l’âge de départ à la retraite, le budget du gouvernement et les inégalités au sein de la population âgée. Nos simulations révèlent que le «bonus de pension» est une réforme inefficace. Au contraire, une pénalisation de la retraite anticipée aurait permis d’améliorer la soutenabilité budgétaire du système, tout en réduisant davantage les inégalités des revenus parmi les pensionnés.

Financial and redistributive impact of reforming the old-age pension system in Belgium

The effects of three reforms of the Belgian old-age pension system were examined on retirement behaviour, government budget and income distribution of the old-age retired. On the basis of a large administrative micro-dataset used to estimate and simulate a discrete-time hazard model we found that reforms of the old-age pension system that penalize early retirement, and in particularly penalize early retirement of the rich more than the poor, are not only the ones that enhance the financial sustainability of the system at most but at the same time lead to the strongest decrease of income ineduality and relative poverty among the old-age retired. On the contrary, reforms that compensate retirement beyond the age of eligibility like the “pension bonus” recently implemented in Belgium lead to budget deficits and at the same time to a higher income ineduality among the old-age retired. Finally, it was shown that the impact of reforming the old-age pension system may be limited by individuals that have the prospect of receiving occupational pension benefits, among others because in Belgium these are subject to an extremely generous fiscal treatmentearly retirement; retirement incentives; pension reforms; hazard model; micro-simulation

A Low UVB Dose, with the Potential to Trigger a Protective p53-Dependent Gene Program, Increases the Resilience of Keratinocytes against Future UVB Insults

One protein central in the response of human keratinocytes to ultraviolet B damage is p53. By transactivating genes involved in either cell cycle arrest or DNA repair, p53 has a leading role in the recovery from this damage. Considering this role, we wished to investigate whether the triggering of a p53-dependent gene program by repetitive ultraviolet B (UVB) exposure can induce an adaptive response in human skin cells. In particular, we examined two p53-target genes, p21/WAF1 and p53R2, with a crucial role in p53-induced cell cycle arrest and p53-induced DNA repair respectively. Exposure to a mild UVB dose was able to induce an adaptive response in human keratinocytes, leading to increased survival of cells that maintain their capacity to repair DNA damage upon exposure to apoptotic doses of UVB. Our study indicates that this adaptation response is only achieved if the interval between subsequent UVB insults allows sufficient time for the p53-induced protective gene program to be induced. Our results also demonstrate that small but quickly recurring UVB exposures are as harmful as one intense, continual exposure to UVB irradiation. Future research will be oriented toward investigating alternative ways to induce an adaptive response without pre-exposing the cells to UV

"Silver" mode for the heavy Higgs search in the presence of a fourth SM family

We investigate the possible enhancement to the discovery of the heavy Higgs boson through the possible fourth SM family heavy neutrino. Using the channel h-> v4 v4->mu W mu W, it is found that for certain ranges of Higgs boson and v4 masses LHC could discover both of them simultaneously with 1 fb^-1 integrated luminosity

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Harmonisering gewaarborgd minimumpensioen in de drie wettelijke pensioenstelsels

nrpages: 76status: submitte

Does the dismantlement of early retirement schemes increase unemployment in Belgium?

Early retirement is often explained as resulting from a voluntary labour supply choice of a utility maximizing individual. Nonetheless, a lot of individuals perceive retirement as a forced instead of a voluntary decision. This paper tries to accommodate voluntary and involuntary labour supply decisions within one model. On the basis of a large administrative dataset merged with Census data, we estimate a discrete-time competing risk model of transitions from Belgian private-sector employees into unemployment, early and old-age retirement while accounting for forward-looking retirement incentives. The estimated coefficients are used to simulate a cut in early retirement benefits. Although this could enhance the financial sustainability of the social security system for elderly, one might expect that this may force people to retire involuntarily through elderly unemployment where they end up with a lower living standard or even in poverty. Alternatively, it could stimulate employees to work longer until they qualify for old-age pension benefits. The model predicts a strong increase of the exit rates towards unemployment between age 52 and 57 while exit towards the old-age pension system marginally increases until age 63. In particular, blue-collars with physically demanding jobs in traditional industries have a higher risk to become unemployed while white-collar workers, members of voluntary saving plans or occupational pension schemes and highly educated workers are predicted to move in the old-age pension system

Estimation of a structural labour supply model for Belgium: application to the earnings test for pension recipients

nrpages: 23status: publishe