Structural risk indicators for the Spanish banking sector

Structural risks are long-term non-cyclical risks stemming from the structural characteristics of the financial system and the wider economy. In this respect, the systemic risk buffer (SyRB) is a fairly flexible macroprudential instrument that aims to address such risks. However, the European Union (EU) legislation is still flexible regarding the indicators for activating or releasing this buffer. Although a clear definition of these indicators is key to enabling the early detection of vulnerabilities that may lead to a crisis, in practice, each national authority determines its own set of indicators. This article has a dual aim. First, to select a set of indicators that are relevant for regularly monitoring the Spanish banking sector’s structural risks and, second, to develop a heatmap of structural indicators comparing variables for Spain with those for the EU. The empirical evidence suggests that the Spanish banking sector shares most of its structural features with those of the EU economies. According to the analysis, no structural risks are identified at present that might threaten the Spanish banking sector.Los riesgos estructurales son riesgos a largo plazo de carácter no cíclico, derivados de las características estructurales del sistema financiero y de la economía en general. A este respecto, el colchón contra riesgos sistémicos es una herramienta macroprudencial dotada de bastante flexibilidad que trata de abordar dichos riesgos. Sin embargo, la normativa de la Unión Europea (UE) todavía es flexible con respecto a la activación y la liberación de este colchón. Aunque definir claramente estos indicadores es esencial para la detección temprana de vulnerabilidades que puedan desembocar en una crisis, en la práctica, cada autoridad nacional establece su propio conjunto de indicadores. Este trabajo persigue un doble objetivo. Primero, seleccionar una serie de indicadores relevantes para el seguimiento periódico de los riesgos estructurales del sector bancario español y, segundo, desarrollar un mapa de riesgos estructurales que compare las variables españolas con las de la UE. La evidencia empírica sugiere que el sector bancario español comparte la mayoría de las características estructurales de las economías de la UE. Según el análisis desarrollado, en la actualidad no se identifican riesgos estructurales que puedan constituir una amenaza para el sector bancario español

Structural risk indicators for the Spanish banking sector

Structural risks are long-term non-cyclical risks stemming from the structural characteristics of the financial system and the wider economy. In this respect, the systemic risk buffer (SyRB) is a fairly flexible macroprudential instrument that aims to address such risks. However, the European Union (EU) legislation is still flexible regarding the indicators for activating or releasing this buffer. Although a clear definition of these indicators is key to enabling the early detection of vulnerabilities that may lead to a crisis, in practice, each national authority determines its own set of indicators. This article has a dual aim. First, to select a set of indicators that are relevant for regularly monitoring the Spanish banking sector’s structural risks and, second, to develop a heatmap of structural indicators comparing variables for Spain with those for the EU. The empirical evidence suggests that the Spanish banking sector shares most of its structural features with those of the EU economies. According to the analysis, no structural risks are identified at present that might threaten the Spanish banking sector.Los riesgos estructurales son riesgos a largo plazo de carácter no cíclico, derivados de las características estructurales del sistema financiero y de la economía en general. A este respecto, el colchón contra riesgos sistémicos es una herramienta macroprudencial dotada de bastante flexibilidad que trata de abordar dichos riesgos. Sin embargo, la normativa de la Unión Europea (UE) todavía es flexible con respecto a la activación y la liberación de este colchón. Aunque definir claramente estos indicadores es esencial para la detección temprana de vulnerabilidades que puedan desembocar en una crisis, en la práctica, cada autoridad nacional establece su propio conjunto de indicadores. Este trabajo persigue un doble objetivo. Primero, seleccionar una serie de indicadores relevantes para el seguimiento periódico de los riesgos estructurales del sector bancario español y, segundo, desarrollar un mapa de riesgos estructurales que compare las variables españolas con las de la UE. La evidencia empírica sugiere que el sector bancario español comparte la mayoría de las características estructurales de las economías de la UE. Según el análisis desarrollado, en la actualidad no se identifican riesgos estructurales que puedan constituir una amenaza para el sector bancario español

Sectoral indicators for applying the Banco de España’s new macroprudential tools

Since December 2021 the Banco de España has three new macroprudential tools (Circular 5/2021): the sectoral component of the countercyclical capital buffer, limits on sectoral concentration, and limits and conditions on loan origination. The new sectoral instruments will allow it to address the risks that are concentrated in specific sectors, for which the aggregate macroprudential tools would be less effective, as they are applied equally across all sectors. In order to apply these tools, any potential vulnerabilities building up in the different sectors must be previously identified by means of adequate indicators. This article analyses the battery of sectoral indicators proposed in the circular, which may be useful for activating these new macroprudential tools. Their calculation methodology is similar to that used for the general countercyclical capital buffer indicators. In addition, a study of their predictive power is conducted, which shows their efficiency in identifying risks early. According to these indicators, on data up to 2021 Q3, no warning signals have been observed suggesting that these new tools should be activated

Revisiting the estimation of the cost of equity of euro area banks

El objetivo de este artículo es estimar el coste de capital de una amplia muestra de entidades de crédito del área del euro. Con este fin, los autores consideran varias metodologías de estimación bajo dos enfoques principales: i) modelos de series temporales multifactoriales de rendimientos bursátiles, y ii) modelos de descuento de dividendos. Se observa que, a escala nacional, las estimaciones de los distintos modelos muestran una variación temporal similar, pero las diferencias en niveles pueden ser considerables. La relación entre las distintas estimaciones de coste de capital y los observables bancarios es relativamente débil. Las estimaciones de los modelos de descuento de dividendos muestran una relación algo más sólida con los fundamentos bancarios, mientras que las de los modelos de factores lo hacen más claramente solo para las entidades de mayor tamaño. Una medida combinada, construida como un promedio simple entre modelos, también muestra una asociación moderada con los fundamentos. En general, los resultados destacan las incertidumbres inherentes a la estimación del coste del capital y la importancia de considerar diferentes modelos alternativos

Revisiting the estimation of the cost of equity of euro area banks

El objetivo de este artículo es estimar el coste de capital de una amplia muestra de entidades de crédito del área del euro. Con este fin, los autores consideran varias metodologías de estimación bajo dos enfoques principales: i) modelos de series temporales multifactoriales de rendimientos bursátiles, y ii) modelos de descuento de dividendos. Se observa que, a escala nacional, las estimaciones de los distintos modelos muestran una variación temporal similar, pero las diferencias en niveles pueden ser considerables. La relación entre las distintas estimaciones de coste de capital y los observables bancarios es relativamente débil. Las estimaciones de los modelos de descuento de dividendos muestran una relación algo más sólida con los fundamentos bancarios, mientras que las de los modelos de factores lo hacen más claramente solo para las entidades de mayor tamaño. Una medida combinada, construida como un promedio simple entre modelos, también muestra una asociación moderada con los fundamentos. En general, los resultados destacan las incertidumbres inherentes a la estimación del coste del capital y la importancia de considerar diferentes modelos alternativos

Do buffer requirements for European systemically important banks make them less systemic?

Los colchones de capital para las entidades de importancia sistémica (EIS) fueron diseñados para mitigar los riesgos que suponen estos bancos grandes y complejos. Mediante un modelo de datos de panel para una muestra de bancos europeos que cotizan en bolsa se demuestra que los requerimientos de capital para las EIS logran reducir el riesgo sistémico percibido por los mercados en relación con estas instituciones, aproximado mediante el indicador SRISK de Brownlees y Engle (2017). También se analiza el impacto de los mecanismos de ajuste que utilizan los bancos para cumplir con estos requerimientos de capital para las EIS y su contribución al riesgo sistémico. Los resultados muestran que, ante un aumento de los colchones fijados para las EIS, los bancos responden principalmente mediante aumentos de su capital, en línea con el objetivo de los reguladores. Una vez introducidas en el modelo las diferentes opciones a disposición de las EIS para cumplir con estos requerimientos y ciertas características de las entidades (como, por ejemplo, el tamaño total de sus activos), se encuentra un efecto residual por el hecho de tener el estatus de EIS. Este resultado sugiere que ser designada como EIS proporciona una señal positiva a los mercados, que hace disminuir su contribución al riesgo sistémico.Buffers for systemically important institutions (SIIs) were designed to mitigate the risks posed by these large and complex banks. With a panel data model for a sample of listed European banks, we demonstrate that capital requirements for SIIs effectively reduce the perceived systemic risk of these institutions, which we proxy with the SRISK indicator in Brownlees and Engle (2017). We also study the impact of the adjustment mechanisms that banks use to comply with SII buffer requirements and their contribution to systemic risk. The results show that banks mainly respond to higher SII buffers by increasing their equity, as intended by the regulators. Once we control for the options SIIs employ to fulfil these requirements and SII characteristics (e.g. total asset size), we find a residual effect of having SII status. This result suggests that being an SII provides a positive signal to markets by further decreasing its contribution to systemic risk

The effect of a change in co-payment on prescription drug demand in a National Health System: The case of 15 drug families by price elasticity of demand.

OBJECTIVES: To test the heterogeneity of the effect of a change in pharmaceutical cost-sharing by therapeutic groups in a Spanish region. METHODS: Data: random sample (provided by the Canary Islands Health Service) of 40,471 people covered by the Spanish National Health System (SNHS) in the Canary Islands. The database includes individualised monthly-dispensed medications (prescribed by the SNHS) from one year before (August 2011) to one year after (June 2013) the Royal Decree Law 16/2012 (RDL 16/2012). Sample: two intervention groups (low-income pensioners and middle-income working population) and one control group (low-income working population). Empirical model: quasi-experimental difference-in-differences design to study the change in consumption (measured in number of monthly Defined Daily Dose (DDDs) per individual) among 13 therapeutic groups. The policy break indicator (three-level categorical variable) tested the existence of stockpiling between the reform's announcement and its implementation. We ran 16 linear regression models (general, by therapeutic groups and by comorbidities) that considered whether the exclusion of some drugs from public provision impacted on consumption more than the co-payment increase. RESULTS: General: Reduction (-13.04) in consumption after the reform's implementation, which was fully compensated by a previous increase (16.60 i.e., stockpiling) among low-income pensioners. The middle-income working population maintained its trend of increasing consumption. Therapeutic groups: Reductions in consumption after the reform's implementation among low-income pensioners in 7 of the 13 groups, which were fully compensated for by a previous increase (i.e., stockpiling) in 4 groups and partially compensated for in the remaining 3. The analysis without the excluded medicines provided fewer negative coefficients. Comorbidities: Reduction in consumption that was only slightly compensated for by a previous increase (i.e., stockpiling). CONCLUSIONS: The negative impact of cost-sharing produced, among low-income pensioners, a risk of loss of adherence to treatments, which could deteriorate the health status of individuals, especially among pensioners within the most inelastic therapeutic groups (associated with chronic diseases) and patients with comorbidities (also, associated with chronic diseases). Notwithstanding the above, this risk was more related to the exclusion of some drugs from provision than to the cost-sharing increase

Indicadores sectoriales para la aplicación de las nuevas herramientas macroprudenciales del Banco de España

El Banco de España cuenta desde diciembre de 2021 con tres nuevas herramientas macroprudenciales (Circular 5/2021): el componente sectorial del colchón de capital anticíclico, los límites a la concentración sectorial, y los límites y condiciones a la concesión de préstamos. Los nuevos instrumentos sectoriales permitirán abordar riesgos que estén concentrados en sectores concretos, para los que las herramientas macroprudenciales agregadas serían menos efectivas, al aplicarse a todos los sectores por igual. Para la aplicación de estas herramientas, es necesario identificar previamente las potenciales vulnerabilidades que se pudieran estar acumulando en los diferentes sectores mediante unos indicadores adecuados. En este artículo se desarrolla la batería de indicadores sectoriales propuesta en la circular, que puede ser de utilidad para la activación de estas nuevas herramientas macroprudenciales. Su metodología de cálculo es análoga a la ya empleada para los indicadores del colchón de capital anticíclico general. Además, se realiza un estudio de su capacidad predictiva, que muestra su eficacia para identificar riesgos de forma temprana. Según estos indicadores, con datos hasta el tercer trimestre de 2021, no se observan señales de alerta que sugieran la activación de las nuevas herramientas

Operational analysis of school-based delivery models to vaccinate children against influenza.

Large-scale immunisation programmes against seasonal influenza are characterised by logistical challenges related to the need for vaccinating large cohorts of people in a short amount of time. Careful operational planning of resources is essential for a successful implementation of such programmes. We focused on the process of child vaccination in schools and analysed the staffing and workflow aspects of a school-aged children vaccination programme in England. Our objectives were to document vaccination processes and analyse times and costs associated with different models deployed across England. We collected data through direct non-participatory observations. Statistical data analysis enabled us to identify potential factors influencing vaccine delivery time and informed the development of a tool to simulate vaccination sessions. Using this tool, we carried out scenario analyses and explored trade-offs between session times and costs in different settings. Our work ultimately supported the local implementation of school-based vaccination

Variation in quality of acute stroke care by day and time of admission: prospective cohort study of weekday and weekend centralised hyperacute stroke unit care and non-centralised services.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate variations in quality of acute stroke care and outcomes by day and time of admission in London hyperacute stroke units compared with the rest of England. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study using anonymised patient-level data from the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme. SETTING: Acute stroke services in London hyperacute stroke units and the rest of England. PARTICIPANTS: 68 239 patients with a primary diagnosis of stroke admitted between January and December 2014. INTERVENTIONS: Hub-and-spoke model for care of suspected acute stroke patients in London with performance standards designed to deliver uniform access to high-quality hyperacute stroke unit care across the week. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 16 indicators of quality of acute stroke care, mortality at 3 days after admission to the hospital, disability at the end of the inpatient spell, length of stay. RESULTS: There was no variation in quality of care by day and time of admission to the hospital across the week in terms of stroke nursing assessment, brain scanning and thrombolysis in London hyperacute stroke units, nor was there variation in 3-day mortality or disability at hospital discharge (all p values>0.05). Other quality of care measures significantly varied by day and time of admission across the week in London (all p values0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The London hyperacute stroke unit model achieved performance standards for 'front door' stroke care across the week. The same benefits were not achieved by other models of care in the rest of England. There was no weekend effect for mortality in London or the rest of the England. Other aspects of care were not constant across the week in London hyperacute stroke units, indicating some performance standards were perceived to be more important than others