Determinants of Nigeria's non-oil import demand.

Primarily, the study assesses the determinants of non-oil import demand in Nigeria. This is aimed at measuring the relative strengths and nature of effects of the variables that determine Nigeria’s non-oil import demand, and subsequently assessing the extent to which results are in conformity with those previously obtained on a wider aggregate of the Nigerian economy. An econometric method of analysis was employed. Results indicate deviations from the findings of earlier studies, as two key variables previously reported as significant (real exchange rate and real income) showed insignificant causational relationships in the model

Threshold-based asymmetric reactions of trade balances to currency devaluation: fresh insights from smooth transition regression (STR) model

This study sought to ascertain relatively the asymmetric reactions of trade balances to currency devaluation and non-devaluation regimes in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries between 1981 and 2021 using the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The outcome indicates that, in Ghana, Malawi, and Mozambique, currency devaluation as a change in policy has a major influence on the trade balance; however, in Nigeria, Kenya, and Tanzania, this impact is negligible. Nigeria had the highest gamma coefficient but insignificant, suggesting that policy change has not significantly impacted the country’s trade balance despite the high transition rate. Findings from the devaluation regime revealed that, with the exception of Ghana, all other nations’ real exchange rates are inversely and significantly related to the trade balance. Additionally, it displayed an average threshold parameter of 0.147, indicating that a devaluation of more than 14.7% within a year will deteriorate the trade balance in SSA. The results indicate that the devaluation effects hinge on the structure, macroprudential policies, and infrastructural growth of the nation. The study recommended amongst other things, (i) a robust structural transformation in key sectors (ii) judicious investment in infrastructural development to address the key bottleneck in the quality and quantity of domestic production

Macro-Econometric Modeling of Social Insecurity, Foreign Direct Investments and Economic Growth Association

Social insecurity has in recent time constituted a major hurdle to the Nigeria authorities.  Theoretically, it is believed to have a strong negative link with Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and levels of economic growth. This in Nigeria’s context ranges from Niger Delta crises, to the un-going Boko-Haram Islamists Militants insurgency. Given paucity of empirical literature on this line of investigation into this form of socioeconomic problem, this study empirically examines the link amongst social insecurity, FDI and growth of the Nigerian economy. The study adopted the Augmented Cob-Douglas production function in its analysis, introducing the variable (social insecurity) into the FDI model and subsequently traces its impact on economic growth. Result indicates that social insecurity stimulates the inflow of foreign technology, rather than inhibit it. The paper attributes this to merging of these distinct forms of social insecurity in the study and consequently recommend an explicit examination of these forms of social insecurity-FDI association Nigeria.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ijssm.v1i4.10944 Int. J. Soc. Sci. Manage. Vol-1, issue-4: 129-138 </jats:p

Value Added Tax and price stability in Nigeria: A partial equilibrium analysis

The economic impact of Value Added Tax (VAT) that was implemented in Nigeria in 1994 has generated much debate in recent times, especially with respect to its effect on the level of aggregate prices. This study empirically examines the influence of VAT on price stability in Nigeria using partial equilibrium analysis. We introduced the VAT variable in the framework of a combination of structuralist, monetarist and fiscalist approaches to inflation modelling. The analysis was carried out by applying multiple regression analysis in static form to data for the 1994-2010 period. The results reveal that VAT exerts a strong upward pressure on price levels, most likely due to the burden of VAT on intermediate outputs. The study rules out the option of VAT exemptions for intermediate outputs as a solution, due to the difficulty in distinguishing between intermediate and final outputs. Instead, it recommends a detailed post-VAT cost-benefit analysis to assess the social desirability of VAT policy in Nigeria

Reassessing the Empirical Relationship between Health Expenditure, Governance and Economic Growth in Africa: Analysis of Nigerian Data

As an aspect of human capital, a positive association exists amongst health, productivity, and growth in output per capita. On the other hand, social infrastructure defined by the institution of governance has a direct effect on the environment upon which productive activities take place to determine outcomes. Nigeria like most African countries is bedevilled by the high prevalence of inadequate health financing and poor governance. Health financing for Nigeria consistently has fallen short of the AU health funding commitment of 15% of annual budgetary allocation to the health sector. Secondly, poor governance conditions available resources and shape the state of infrastructure, particularly health infrastructure and socioeconomic conditions. In turn, this determines individuals’ level of exposure to health risks and their capacity to actively contribute to productive activity for growth stimulation and sustainability. Against this backdrop, this study added to the existing literature in the context of Nigeria, by theoretically applying the Solow augmented Mankiw-Romer-Weil structural model in the examination of the impact of government size and governance quality in the health sector, on economic growth. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was adopted in the estimation. Findings show that governance quality adversely affects growth and this reduces the capacity of health spending to stimulate growth by an almost equal margin. As a result, this study recommends legislative backing to the AU health funding commitment in Nigeria

Does Trade Liberalisation Policy Enhance Performance of Non-Oil Export Trade in Nigeria?

Decades after the trade liberalisation policy shift, poor performance problem of non-oil export in Nigeria (a net-oil exporting economy) persists. Against this backdrop, and given the lack of analytical depth among Nigerian-specific studies, this study empirically provided answer to the question of whether trade liberalisation policy enhances non-oil export trade in Nigeria. The study adopted an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model approach to the analysis of the impact of trade liberalisation policy on non-oil export trade. Evidence provided support for trade liberalisation policy as the growth driver for non-oil export, a sector that exports more but earns little in terms of revenue. As a result, the study recommends a well thought-out public–private partnership arrangement for the efficiency of the private sector (a major player in non-oil export trade), to optimally harness the benefits of liberalisation in Nigeria’s non-oil trade sub-sector. JEL Codes: F14, F17, F41, F62 </jats:p

EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND DYNAMICS OF NON-OIL TRADE: Evidence From Nigeria

Motivated by the high prevalence of possible endogeneity bias among Nigerian specific studies, this study examined the effects of exchange rate volatility shocks on non-oil trade using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (p, q) and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methods of analysis. Theoretically, the model for the study was founded on the relationship between trade and the size of price and foreign exchange elasticities of Nigeria and her trading partners. The result shows that non-oil import exhibited unending positive and negative swings in response to positive shocks on exchange rate volatility, as against a minimal negative effect on export which became muted after the third and half period. This suggests that exchange rate volatility is more relevant for the determination of non-oil import than export. On the basis of this, the study concluded that exclusive reliance on exchange rate adjustment as a policy management tool for non-oil trade can be counterproductive for Nigeria. As a result, the study recommended the establishment of industrial clusters to drive domestic production of internationally competitive non-oil products

IS GOVERNMENT EDUCATION SPENDING BENEFICIAL TO HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT? THE NIGERIAN EXPERIENCE

Nigeria’s highest human development index rating is 0.539, indicating a low level of human capital development. Because of the need to improve the level of human capital development for better economic growth and development, this study investigates the impact of government education spending on human capital development in Nigeria for the period 2003q1 to 2021q4. Human capital development was proxied with the human development index, while the federal government's recurrent expenditure on education was used as a proxy for government education spending. A linear ARDL-bound test model was employed for the study. The unit root tests results show that all variables are integrated of order one. The cointegration test shows the presence of a long-run relationship between government education spending and human capital development. Government education spending has a positive and significant effect on human capital development in both the short and long run. Based on the findings, the study recommends increased government spending on education to increase human capital development to a level that will adequately enhance the growth and development of the Nigerian economy