Clinical Epidemiology of Malaria in the Highlands of Western Kenya

Malaria in the highlands of Kenya is traditionally regarded as unstable and limited by low temperature. Brief warm periods may facilitate malaria transmission and are therefore able to generate epidemic conditions in immunologically naive human populations living at high altitudes. The adult:child ratio (ACR) of malaria admissions is a simple tool we have used to assess the degree of functional immunity in the catchment population of a health facility. Examples of ACR are collected from inpatient admission data at facilities with a range of malaria endemicities in Kenya. Two decades of inpatient malaria admission data from three health facilities in a high-altitude area of western Kenya do not support the canonical view of unstable transmission. The malaria of the region is best described as seasonal and meso-endemic. We discuss the implications for malaria control options in the Kenyan highlands

Meteorologic Influences on Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in the Highland Tea Estates of Kericho, Western Kenya

Recent epidemics of Plasmodium falciparum malaria have been observed in high-altitude areas of East Africa. Increased malaria incidence in these areas of unstable malaria transmission has been attributed to a variety of changes including global warming. To determine whether the reemergence of malaria in western Kenya could be attributed to changes in meteorologic conditions, we tested for trends in a continuous 30-year monthly malaria incidence dataset (1966–1995) obtained from complete hospital registers at a Kenyan tea plantation. Contemporary monthly meteorologic data (1966–1995) that originated from the tea estate meteorologic station and from global climatology records were also tested for trends. We found that total hospital admissions (malaria and nonmalaria) remained unchanged while malaria admissions increased significantly during the period. We also found that all meteorologic variables showed no trends for significance, even when combined into a monthly suitability index for malaria transmission. We conclude that climate changes have not caused the highland malaria resurgence in western Kenya

Defining and Detecting Malaria Epidemics in the Highlands of Western Kenya

Epidemic detection algorithms are being increasingly recommended for malaria surveillance in sub-Saharan Africa. We present the results of applying three simple epidemic detection techniques to routinely collected longitudinal pediatric malaria admissions data from three health facilities in the highlands of western Kenya in the late 1980s and 1990s. The algorithms tested were chosen because they could be feasibly implemented at the health facility level in sub-Saharan Africa. Assumptions of these techniques about the normal distribution of admissions data and the confidence intervals used to define normal years were also investigated. All techniques identified two “epidemic” years in one of the sites. The untransformed Cullen method with standard confidence intervals detected the two “epidemic” years in the remaining two sites but also triggered many false alarms. The performance of these methods is discussed and comments made about their appropriateness for the highlands of western Keny

Land use change alters malaria transmission parameters by modifying temperature in a highland area of Uganda

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73403/1/j.1365-3156.2000.00551.x.pd

Shifting patterns: malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland.

The long-term patterns of malaria in the East African highlands typically involve not only a general upward trend in cases but also a dramatic increase in the size of epidemic outbreaks. The role of climate variability in driving epidemic cycles at interannual time scales remains controversial, in part because it has been seen as conflicting with the alternative explanation of purely endogenous cycles exclusively generated by the nonlinear dynamics of the disease. We analyse a long temporal record of monthly cases from 1970 to 2003 in a highland of western Kenya with both a time-series epidemiological model (time-series susceptible-infected-recovered) and a statistical approach specifically developed for non-stationary patterns. Results show that multiyear cycles of malaria outbreaks appear in the 1980s, concomitant with the timing of a regime shift in the dynamics of cases; the cycles become more pronounced in the 1990s, when the coupling between disease and rainfall is also stronger as the variance of rainfall increased at the frequencies of coupling. Disease dynamics and climate forcing play complementary and interacting roles at different temporal scales. Thus, these mechanisms should not be viewed as alternative and their interaction needs to be integrated in the development of future predictive models

Hot topic or hot air? Climate change and malaria resurgence in East African highlands.

Climate has a significant impact on malaria incidence and we have predicted that forecast climate changes might cause some modifications to the present global distribution of malaria close to its present boundaries. However, it is quite another matter to attribute recent resurgences of malaria in the highlands of East Africa to climate change. Analyses of malaria time-series at such sites have shown that malaria incidence has increased in the absence of co-varying changes in climate. We find the widespread increase in resistance of the malaria parasite to drugs and the decrease in vector control activities to be more likely driving forces behind the malaria resurgence

Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands.

The public health and economic consequences of Plasmodium falciparum malaria are once again regarded as priorities for global development. There has been much speculation on whether anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating the malaria problem, especially in areas of high altitude where P. falciparum transmission is limited by low temperature. The International Panel on Climate Change has concluded that there is likely to be a net extension in the distribution of malaria and an increase in incidence within this range. We investigated long-term meteorological trends in four high-altitude sites in East Africa, where increases in malaria have been reported in the past two decades. Here we show that temperature, rainfall, vapour pressure and the number of months suitable for P. falciparum transmission have not changed significantly during the past century or during the period of reported malaria resurgence. A high degree of temporal and spatial variation in the climate of East Africa suggests further that claimed associations between local malaria resurgences and regional changes in climate are overly simplistic