Does single monetary policy have asymmetric real effects in EMU ?

This article compares reactions of economies in Economic Monetary Union to a single monetary policy. For that, we estimate a reaction function supposed to represent the behaviour of European Central Bank over the period 1980-1998. Then residuals are introduced into the production equation of each country. We break up monetary shocks in two axes: first, anticipated against unanticipated shocks and then positive against negative shocks. These distinctions permit a best evaluation of the degree of homogeneity of the effects of monetary policy. France, Germany, Spain and Austria seem more sensitive to unanticipated interest rates increases contrary to Belgium and Italy. These results illustrate all the problem of single monetary policy.monetary policy shocks, reaction function, asymmetric effects, Economic Monetary Union.

Armington elasticities and tariff regime: An application to European Union rice imports

Most of the European Union’s (EU) import sources for rice are in developing countries and the least-developed countries (LDCs). The EU has moreover made a commitment to allow duty-free and quota-free access to rice imports originating in the LDCs from September 2009 onward. The purpose of this article is to answer two questions – First: Does the inclusion of import tariffs in the specification lead to different estimated Armington elasticities? Second: When a discriminating tariff is introduced, what happens to the market share of large rice exporters to the EU, especially to the market share of poor countries? Consequently, we present the Armington model, derived from a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utility function, and a non-homothetic CES utility functional form, which is more flexible. Then, we estimate the Armington model, with and without the inclusion of a tariff, and we compare the elasticities. Lastly, we model five scenarios with different discriminating import tariff rates to calculate the changes in the market access of large rice exporters to the EU. Our empirical results show that it is worthwhile to consider non-homothetic preferences and import tariffs. When the model is estimated, ignoring the import tariffs and the non-homothetic parameter, results may be biased and of uncertain validity. Furthermore the simulation findings demonstrate that in spite of a large difference between import tariff rate of Suriname and other countries (scenario V), its market access would not change greatly. This may be caused by supply side problems like poor infrastructures, weak technology and small capacity production in LDCs.Armington elasticity, tariff discrimination, non-homothetic, utility function, EU, rice.

Fonctions de réaction des banques centrales européennes et convergence

Since January 1, 2001, twelve countries are taking part to the EMU. The introduction of the single currency is the result of a long process of convergence. The European Monetary System which was created in 1979 was already conceived in such a way that established a closer monetary cooperation between Member States. This adjustment process has been accelerated with the three preliminary stages to the creation of the EMU. Nevertheless, the question whether there is convergence of the central banks’ preferences or not still needs to be answered. In order to provide an answer to this interrogation, this paper presents the estimations of the functions of reaction of the eight main national central banks over the period 1980-1998. We also estimate the function of reaction which would have represented as best as possible the behaviour of the ECB if the countries had formed a monetary Union over this period. The results thus enable us to compare the behaviours of the central banks and allow us thereby to highlight a process of convergence of their preferences. Depuis le 1er janvier 2001, 12 pays participent à l’UEM. L’instauration de la monnaie unique constitue l’aboutissement d’un long processus de convergence. Le Système monétaire européen créé en 1979 visait déjà à établir une coopération monétaire plus étroite. Ensuite, les trois étapes préliminaires à la création de l’UEM ont accéléré le processus d’ajustement. Néanmoins, la question est de savoir s’il existe une convergence des préférences des banques centrales. Pour répondre à cette interrogation, cet article a pour objet d’estimer les fonctions de réaction des huit principales banques centrales nationales sur la période 1980-1998 mais aussi celle qui aurait représenté au mieux le comportement de la BCE si les pays avaient formé une union monétaire sur cette période. Les résultats nous permettent ainsi de comparer les comportements des banques centrales et mettent en évidence un processus de convergence de leurs préférences.

Applying the gravity approach to sector trade: Who bears the trade costs?

Thanks to its empirical success, the gravity approach is widely used to explain trade patterns between countries. In this article we question the simple application of this approach to product/sector-level trade on two grounds. First, we demonstrate that the traditional Armington version of gravity must be altered to properly account for the fact that sector expenditures are not strictly equal to sector productions because some trade costs are incurred outside the sector of interest. Secondly, we test empirically the mis-measurement of the expenditures with both Armington (1969) and Helpman and Krugman (1985) approaches. We estimate trade flows and prices simultaneously with non linear techniques. Underestimated expenditure levels yield biased values of model parameters.gravity, trade, econometric simulation

Fonctions de réaction des banques centrales européennes et convergence

Depuis le 1er janvier 2001, douze pays participent à l'UEM. L'instauration de la monnaie unique constitue l'aboutissement d'un long processus de convergence. Le Système Monétaire Européen créé en 1979 visait déjà à établir une coopération monétaire plus étroite. Ensuite, les trois étapes préliminaires à la création de l'UEM ont accéléré le processus d'ajustement. Néanmoins, la question est de savoir s'il existe une convergence des préférences des banques centrales. Pour répondre à cette interrogation, ce papier a pour objet d'estimer les fonctions de réaction des huit principales banques centrales nationales sur la période 1980-1998 mais aussi celle qui aurait représenté au mieux le comportement de la BCE si les pays avaient formé une Union monétaire sur cette période. Les résultats nous permettent ainsi de comparer les comportements des banques centrales et mettent en évidence un processus de convergence de leurs préférences.Fonctions de réaction, convergence, monnaie unique

Sacrifice ratio dispersion within the Euro Zone:What can be learned about implementing a Single Monetary Policy?

This article focuses on the comparison of sacrifice ratios as an indicator for structural dispersion within the euro area over the period 1972-2003. Estimates of the sacrifice ratio, defined as the cumulative output cost arising from permanent inflation reduction, are obtained using structural VAR models. Results from sub-period analysis as well as ten-year-period rolling estimates lead to two main conclusions. Firstly empirical evidence displays a recent increase in the average sacrifice ratio, which can be linked to the simultaneous decrease in the average inflation rate: this negative relationship between the initial level of inflation and the cost of disinflation can be seen as a justification for the choice of an inflation objective close to 2% for the European Central Bank (ECB) rather than a target of perfect price stability, potentially very damaging. Secondly, we can't provide evidence of any reduction in European sacrifice ratio dispersion, which would suggest that the nominal convergence triggered by the Maastricht Treaty didn't involve a true reduction of structural differences. It is likely to be a problem in the stance of a single monetary policy, since structural differences imply asymmetric responses of real national economies to the same monetary impulse.Sacrifice ratio ; monetary policy ; convergence ; Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)

Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility: An Overview

Recent years have witnessed a sharp increase in many commodity prices. This report examines the question of whether commodity price volatility has materially changed with the rapid run up in world prices in 2006-09, followed by an equally sharp decline in many commodity prices. The report analyses international price volatility for selected agricultural commodities over the past half-century and their relationship with crude oil, fertiliser and the euro-dollar exchange rates. The analysis utilises different data sources, frequency of price observations, periods of observation, price volatility measures and a number of statistical tests to examine the various dimensions of the issue.price volatility, agricultural markets, correlation and causality

Nature et enjeux de l'intégration économique: une analyse empirique

Diplôme : HD

Informal barriers, agricultural trade, and the Euro Area

The EU enlargement revives the debate around the participation to the EMU. The accession to a monetary union can affect trade through several channels. In this paper we study the link between the membership to a monetary union and informal barriers to trade. The question we ask is whether the participation to the Euro Area reduces the impact of informal barriers on new members' agricultural trade. We base our analysis on Greek imports of agricultural products from partners in the Euro area and third countries between 1996 and 2005. A first result we find is that the country's accession to the Euro zone has reduced the effect of information flows on its imports of agricultural products from EMU partners. Secondly, institutional aspects have become a less important determinant of Greek imports from all countries. After 2001 non-EMU suppliers are viewed by Greek partners as more homogeneous in terms of institutions' quality