Detecting and interpreting financial stress in the euro area

There is a need to find better models and indicators for large disruptive events, not least in order to be more prepared and mitigate their effects. In this paper we take a step in this direction and discuss the performance of a financial stress indicator with a specific focus on the euro area. As far as we know, our indicator is the first attempt to develop an indicator of financial stress with a specific focus on the euro area. It is also the first to exploit the information contained in central bank communication to help measure stress in financial markets. For use in real time, the indicator is able to efficiently extract information from an otherwise noisy signal and provide information about the level of stress in the markets. JEL Classification: E44, E50, G10behavioural finance, central bank communication, Financial stress, Leading Indicator, logit distribution

The Exchange Rate in a Model with Heterogeneous Agents and Transactions Costs

In this paper we develop a model of the exchange rate. The existence of transactions costs introduces an important non-linearity. Agents have different beliefs about the future exchange rate. We show that this simple model creates great complexity in the market which is characterised by the fact that the exchange rate is disconnected from its fundamental most of the time. Periods of tranquility and turbulence alternate in unpredictable manner. Finally we show that this model mimicks most of the empirical puzzles uncovered in the literature.

Bubbles and Crashes in a Behavioural Finance Model

We develop a simple model of the exchange rate in which agents optimize their portfolio and use different forecasting rules. They check the profitability of these rules ex post and select the more profitable one. This model produces two kinds of equilibria, a fundamental and a bubble one. In a stochastic environment the model generates a complex dynamics in which bubbles and crashes occur at unpredictable moments. We contrast these "behavioural" bubbles with "rational" bubbles.exchange rate, bounded rationality, heterogeneous agents, bubbles and crashes, complex dynamics

The Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals. A Chaotic Perspective

We analyse the workings of a simple non-linear exchange rate model in which agents hold different beliefs about the underlying model. We distinguish between ‘chartists’ and ‘fundamentalists’. The non-linearities in the model originate from transactions costs and from the existence of non-linear adjustment dynamics in the goods market. We find, first, that the simple non-linear structure of the model is capable of generating a very complex exchange rate dynamics. Second, our model is capable of explaining some empirical puzzles concerning exchange rate behaviour, i.e. the ‘disconnect’ puzzle which says that the exchange rate is disconnected form its underlying fundamentals most of the time and the excess volatility puzzle.

The Impact of FX Central Bank Intervention in a Noise Trading Framework

In this paper we investigate the effects of central bank interventions (CBI) in a noise trading model with chartists and fundamentalists. We first estimate a model in which chartists extrapolate past returns and fundamentalists forecast a mean reverting dynamics of the exchange rate towards a fundamental value. Then, we investigate the role of central bank interventions in explaining the switching properties between the two types of agents. We find evidence that in the medium run, interventions increase the proportion of fundamentalists and therefore exert some stabilizing influence on the exchange rate.

Fundamental and Non-Fundamental Equilibria in the Foreign Exchange Market. A Behavioural Finance Framework

We develop a simple model of the exchange rate in which agents optimize their portfolio and use different forecasting rules. They check the profitability of these rules ex post and select the more profitable one. This model produces two kinds of equilibria, a fundamental and a bubble one. In a stochastic environment the model generates a complex dynamics in which bubbles and crashes occur at unpredictable moments. We contrast these ”behavioural” bubbles with ”rational” bubbles.exchange rate, bounded rationality, heterogeneous agents, bubbles and crashes, complex dynamics, basins of attraction

Heart failure: Pilot transcriptomic analysis of cardiac tissue by RNA-sequencing

Background: Despite left ventricular (LV) dysfunction contributing to mortality in chronic heart failure (HF), the molecular mechanisms of LV failure continues to remain poorly understood and myocardial biomarkers have yet to be identified. The aim of this pilot study was to investigate specific transcriptome changes occurring in cardiac tissues of patients with HF compared to healthy condition patients to improve diagnosis and possible treatment of affected subjects. Methods: Unlike other studies, only dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) (n = 2) and restrictive cardiomyopathy (RCM) (n = 2) patients who did not report family history of the disease were selected with the aim of obtaining a homogeneous population for the study. The transcriptome of all patients were studied by RNA-sequencing (RNA-Seq) and the read counts were adequately filtered and normalized using a recently developed user-friendly tool for RNA-Seq data analysis, based on a new graphical user interface (RNA-SeqGUI). Results: By using this approach in a pairwise comparison with healthy donors, we were able to identify DCM- and RCM-specific expression signatures for protein-coding genes as well as for long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs). Differential expression of 5 genes encoding different members of the mediator complex was disclosed in this analysis. Interestingly, a significant alteration was found for genes which had never been associated with HF until now, and 27 lncRNA/mRNA pairs that were significantly altered in HF patients. Conclusions: The present findings revealed specific expression pattern of both protein-coding and lncRNAs in HF patients, confirming that new LV myocardial biomarkers could be reliably identified using Next-Generation Sequencing-based approaches

Are hepatic steatosis and carotid intima media thickness associated in obese patients with normal or slightly elevated gamma-glutamyl-transferase?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hepatic steatosis (HS) has been associated with obesity and metabolic syndrome (MS), conditions carrying a high risk of coronary artery disease. We aimed to determine whether HS was an independent factor of atherogenic risk beyond its association with MS and its components.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We assessed the circulating levels of the heat shock protein-70 (HSP-70), a chaperone involved in inflammation, endoplasmic reticulum stress and apoptosis at liver and endothelial level and the gamma-glutamyl transferase activity (γ-GT) correlating them to carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), along with lipid profile, HOMA, C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, ferritin, adiposity type as well as spleen volume in 52 obese pts with grade 1, 128 with grade 2, and 20 with grade 3 of HS evaluated by sonography.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Patients with different grade of HS demonstrated overlapping HSP-70 levels; similarly performed obese subjects regarding IMT. Using multiple regression analysis, IMT was predicted by age, visceral adiposity and by HOMA (β = 0.50, <it>p </it>< 0.0001, β = 0.30, <it>p </it>= 0.01 and β = 0.18, <it>p </it>= 0.048 respectively, while the severity of HS was predicted by visceral and subcutaneous adiposity and HOMA (β = 0.50, <it>p </it>< 0.0001 and β = 0.27, <it>p </it>= 0.001 and β = 0.18, <it>p </it>= 0.024, respectively).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In our series of patients with normal or mild elevation of γ-GT, the severity of HS does not entail higher IMT, which may be linked to MS stigmata.</p

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Women's Perinatal Mental Health: Preliminary Data on the Risk of Perinatal Depression/Anxiety from a National Survey in Italy

Increasing evidence suggests that during the COVID-19 pandemic, anxiety and depression during the perinatal period increased. The aim of the study is to estimate the prevalence of risk for both maternal depression and anxiety among women attending 18 healthcare centres in Italy during the SARS-COV-2 pandemic and to investigate the psychosocial risks and protective factors associated. It was divided into a retrospective phase (2019, 2020, and the first nine months of 2021) and a prospective phase (which began in November 2021 and it is still ongoing), which screened 12,479 and 2349 women, respectively, for a total of 14,828 women in the perinatal period. To evaluate the risk of anxiety and depression, the General Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7), the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), and an ad hoc form were used to collect sociodemographic variables. In the prospective study, the average age of the women is 31 (range 18-52) years. Results showed that the percentage of women who had EPDS score ≥9 increased from 11.6% in 2019 to 25.5% in the period ranging from November 2021 to April 2022. In logistic regression models, the variables associated with the risk of depression at a level ≤0.01 include having economic problems (OR 2.16) and not being able to rely on support from relatives or friends (OR 2.36). Having the professional status of the housewife is a lower risk (OR 0.52). Those associated with the risk of anxiety include being Italian (OR 2.97), having an education below secondary school level (OR 0.47), having some or many economic problems (OR 2.87), being unable to rely on support from relatives or friends (OR 2.48), and not having attended an antenatal course (OR 1.41). The data from this survey could be useful to determine the impact of the SARS-COV-2 pandemic on women and to establish a screening program with common and uniformly applied criteria which are consistent with national and international women's mental health programs